Situational analysis of the enterprise. Purpose of the situational analysis

situational analysis– these are complex developments of SD, which are based on the analysis of a single managerial situation. Situational analysis allows, based on a deeper analysis of situations, the establishment of trends, patterns and factors that determine their development, to reasonably accept sustainable development, including strategic ones.

One of the main tasks of situational analysis- the establishment of not all, but the main factors that have a significant impact on the development of the situation, and the rejection of those factors that cannot have a significant impact.

Situation - this is a combination of internal and external factors, circumstances, conditions, active and passive operating forces, requiring the adoption of appropriate strategic and important tactical decisions that determine the activities of the organization, as well as ensuring the prevention of crisis phenomena. It is assumed that the situation develops in accordance with certain patterns ("rules of the game") under the influence of certain internal mechanisms and events occurring outside the organization;

Direction - this is an area of active activity of the organization in which it is necessary to adopt important SD or crisis situations may arise;

The reference situation is a typical situation characteristic of this direction, which has already arisen earlier, for which there is information about the decisions made, actions and the results of these actions.

Bank of situations - this is systematized information about situations, usually stored on a machine medium, equipped with special tools for efficient storage, retrieval and updating (updating) of data.

Expert committee - a group of highly qualified specialists formed to conduct an examination (in particular, "brainstorming") in the process of situational analysis.

First level experts- highly qualified specialists with professional knowledge in one of the areas or experience in solving problems that are directly related to the object of the situational analysis.

Second level experts– highly qualified specialists who are able to analyze and assess the situation as a whole;

Technologist - a specialist with the necessary professional knowledge and experience in organizing and conducting a situational analysis.

Analyst - a specialist with both the necessary professional knowledge and experience in analyzing situations in this area, and experience in supporting situational analysis, preparing analytical reports and conclusions.

decision maker - person or body that makes decisions in the analyzed situation.

profile problems - the main problems that influence the development and assessment of the situation in a situational analysis.

Evaluation system - includes information about the factors that determine the situation, about their comparative significance, about scales for assessing the values of factors, threshold values, decision rules Oh.

Index - a generalized indicator calculated using an evaluation system and characterizing the state of the situation.

3.6.2. Stages of situational analysis

The main stages of the situational analysis are presented in Figure 3.10.

Preparing for a situational analysis begins with a clear definition of the decision-making situation. As you know, in many cases, the right task is half the success.

At the preparatory stage, the selection of experts of the first and second levels is carried out - the formation of expert commissions for conducting a situational analysis, taking into account their professional training.

One of the main tasks of this stage is the preparation of information about the situation, internal and external factors, related problems, etc., influencing its development. It is advisable to prepare a meaningful description of the situation, including with the help of keywords, which may be useful in the formation of information flows in the process of conducting a situational analysis.

The situational analysis may be preceded by the preparation of the necessary information support, which allows a better understanding of the situation, its strengths and weaknesses, and the main factors determining its development. Sometimes it seems appropriate to prepare special analytical reports for specialists involved in the situational analysis, members of the expert commission.

The provision of methodological, informational support, as well as the content of computer support lies with the analytical group, which should include both technologists for organizing and conducting situational analysis, and analysts - specialists professionally working in the field to which the object of situational analysis belongs.

One of the main tasks of the analytical group is to clearly define and set the task of situational analysis for specialists invited to participate in its implementation. At the same time, the goals of analyzing the situation, the goals of preparing alternative options and developing recommendations for the adoption of strategic and tactical management decisions. Determining the goals and setting the task of the situational analysis are carried out by the analytical group in the process of joint work with the decision maker.

Fig.3.10. Stages of situational analysis

Information analysis begins with the search for possible analogues. Information about analogues is presented in the form of a certain number of reference situations. If the situation that has arisen is one of the reference ones, then it is known how to act in it. Therefore, the preparation and decision-making in such a situation, such as the development of appropriate recommendations, special work do not call.

If the situation that has arisen is such that it seems close to one of the reference ones, then it is necessary to assess how significant the existing differences are. And in this case, information about the corresponding reference situation and the differences established by the analytical group is transmitted to the expert commission for the development of a final conclusion.

In the bank of situations, along with information about reference situations, information about other situations that have happened before can also be stored. If the situation that has arisen is such that there are no close reference situations, then all available information, together with information about previous similar (non-reference) situations, is transmitted by the analytical group of the expert commission.

When enough large volume information at this stage, it often turns out to be appropriate to conduct a preliminary examination to reject insufficiently meaningful or inaccurate information. Based on the analysis, a package of information is formed that is necessary for the situational analysis.

The stage of information analysis can be completed with the preparation of an analytical review for the participants of the collective expertise on previously adopted decisions, their implementation and effectiveness.

Analysis of the situation . If the situation is not one of the reference ones, then one of the central tasks of this stage is to identify the main factors that determine the development of the situation. The most common way to solve this problem is to use method of expert assessments, i.e. the work of the expert commission, in particular brainstorming method.

After the factors are established, their comparative significance is determined, i.e. the degree of their influence on the development of the situation. The formation of indices - special assessment systems designed to assess the situation - can be provided. In order to ensure the real use of the evaluation systems formed for the situational analysis, it is necessary to define the scales in which it is supposed to measure each of the main factors included in the evaluation system.

After that, you can proceed to the formation of decision rules, using which the states of the situation are determined in which it is necessary to apply certain control actions.

One of the main tasks of this stage of the situation analysis is to analyze the key profile problems of the situation, including an assessment of:

strengths and weaknesses;

hazards and risks;

prospects for the development of the situation within the framework of the problems under consideration.

The result of such an analysis is a clearer presentation of the problems that arise in connection with the current situation.

The task of the situation analysis stage is considered completed if, as a result of its implementation, the decision maker receives a clear, fairly complete picture of the situation, which is necessary for making important management decisions.

In the best case scenario, the analysis team can see a way to achieve the goals of the organization with the least possible expenditure of resources.

The stage of situation analysis completes the assessment of the stability of the situation to possible changes in the external and internal environment, to the most probable changes in indicators characterizing the dynamics of the development of the situation.

Development of scenarios for possible development of the situation begins with a meaningful description and definition of a list of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation. To solve this problem, one can use brainstorming method.

The most common ways to develop scenarios involve the formation of a list of the main factors influencing the development of the situation. Using the identified factors, models of the development of the situation are formed.

Various options for changing the values of factors in accordance with the developed models lead to different options changes in the situation - different scenarios of its development. Naturally, first of all, those changes in factors that seem to experts to be the most probable will be considered. Forecast estimates of changes in the main factors are determined by experts. When determining the dynamics of changes in the values of factors, one can use method of constructing expert curves. According to this method, experts consistently indicate critical moments in time at which changes in the trends in the development of the situation, jumps in the values of factors, etc. can occur. After the critical points are determined, the experts determine the expected values of the factors at the critical points and the expected trends in these values. Thus, alternative scenarios for the development of the situation are being developed.

The result of the work of experts at this stage is the development of an expert forecast of changes in factors and indices characterizing the situation, presented in the form of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation.

The stage ends with an assessment of the expected stability of the situation for the developed alternative scenarios for its development.

Assessment of the situation . The assessment of the development of the situation is given both by the experts of the first level in terms of the profile problems that arise with the expected development of the situation, and by the experts of the second level in terms of the development of the situation as a whole in terms of achieving the goals of the organization.

In parallel with the assessment of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation at this stage, it is also assumed that experts of the first and second levels will generate proposals to develop alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions in the analyzed situation.

It is expedient to conduct expert examinations on a comparative assessment of alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions for the analyzed situation as a whole and the choice of the most preferred ones by experts of the second level.

The main purpose of conducting examinations at this stage is the generation for further consideration and analysis of reasonable SD in order to achieve the goals of the organization.

Data processing and evaluation of the results of the examination . The development of scenarios for the possible development of the situation requires appropriate data processing, including mathematical. In particular, the mandatory processing of data received from experts is required during a collective examination, when it is necessary to determine the resulting opinion of experts.

Data processing is required when determining factors, establishing dependencies and indices that characterize the situation. Mathematical processing of data is also required in the development of forecasts, when extrapolation dependences, expert curves are built, the most probable trends in the values of the main factors are determined, etc.

After the preliminary data of examinations during the situational analysis are received, their analysis is necessary. The obtained expert information is analyzed from the point of view of the consistency of the opinions of the experts who participated in the examination. The degree of consistency of experts' assessments makes it possible to judge the reliability of the results of the examination, as well as to obtain a meaningful interpretation of the main points of view of experts in the presence of discrepancies between them. Contradictions in the assessments of experts should be identified and, if possible, eliminated.

It is also possible to achieve an increase in the reliability of the recommendations and proposals received as a result of the examination by comparing alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions obtained using various data processing methods. If the results of data processing using different methods are close enough, this increases confidence in the reliability of the result. If the discrepancies are significant, then it makes sense to establish the cause of the discrepancies that have arisen.

The results obtained during data processing, as well as the results of the evaluation of the examinations carried out, are used in the preparation of materials for decision makers.

The result of the work of experts at this stage of the situational analysis is the assessment of alternative SD options obtained during the situational analysis, the determination of recommendations and proposals for decision makers based on the results of the work performed.

Preparation of analytical materials based on the results of the situational analysis . The main task of this stage is to prepare analytical materials containing recommendations in various areas:

making strategic and tactical decisions in the analyzed situation;

mechanisms for their implementation;

control over the execution of decisions;

support for the implementation of decisions made;

analysis of results, including evaluation of effectiveness decisions taken and their implementation.

All work on organizing and conducting a situational analysis at all stages, its methodological and informational support is carried out by the analytical and working groups, respectively, with the tasks assigned to them and the powers delegated to them.

The effective use of situational analysis to solve managerial problems of particular importance to the organization is impossible today without appropriate computer support.

The development of the most promising approach in management today (situational) was the result of the use of scientific achievements to solve real practical problems. The advantage of such an analysis is "immersion" in the situation in order to make the right informed decision. A deeper understanding of the problem makes it possible to anticipate crises and respond flexibly to change. What is a situational analysis of an organization?

situational approach

This approach from an economic point of view is more effective than other areas of management. Its essence is that it is more expedient for a manager to use those tools that are more necessary in specific circumstances. The form, method, style of leadership should be varied, flexible and change as needed. They are secondary, and the situation (circumstances affecting the firm at the moment) is put in the first place.

By applying the situational analysis of the enterprise, managers are able to quickly figure out which method is effective, which means to use in order to achieve corporate goals.

Importance of situational analysis

Situational analysis is a tool of approach to management through "immersion" in a problem environment. It can be called a slice of the situation in which the organization is in a given period. What gives management its use?

A picture of the real situation in the company.
List of problems threatening its development.
Forecast and perspective.
Information for the development of economic protection measures.

The tasks of situational analysis include complex studies of the organization, assessment of the correctness of the decision made.

Where is case analysis used?

Technologies related to the preparation, adoption and implementation of management decisions based on the analysis of problem areas are called situational analysis. The management process is continuous, closed and consists of functions, each of which involves the use of this approach:

situational analysis of the current situation;
making managerial decisions ;
development and implementation of plans;
organization of coordinated work of departments;
supply of resources;
motivation and stimulation of personnel;
control function and exit from problem areas.

Analysis of situations in training

Situational analysis is an effective teaching method that makes it easier to master management, business planning, psychology, entrepreneurship and other sciences. It has become an integral part business games. Situation analysis methods can be used in many activities, and very successfully. Students in this system apply the studied theory in practice, learn to make the right decisions for the future or in the implementation of tactical programs.

Tasks of situational analysis

The main problem that the analysis of practical situations solves is competent and systematic work with information. Other areas of research in this area include:

Collection and processing of information on the diagnosis of the situation.
Definition of "information" and "white spots".
Establishing the factors that develop the situation.
Building a strategy to solve the problem.
Risk assessment.
Formulation of criteria and frameworks.
Establishing a common language with the participants in the discussion.

Methods of situational analysis

Method	Characteristic
case method	A step-by-step analysis of the situation, which should be close to real problems in the work of a manager. Preparation for analysis performed individually. Analysis of the situation in groups. Collective discussion. Summarizing.
Brainstorm	Development of new ideas, non-standard solutions in unsolvable difficult situations. Ideas expressed by each participant in turn are recorded but not evaluated. It is forbidden to criticize them. This is done to accumulate a large-scale bank of proposals, which are evaluated or discussed at the second stage. The decisive word remains with the leader.
Two-level questionnaires	The method does not involve collective discussion. Participants fill out the questionnaires individually (Round 1), and then the experts review them (Round 2). The analytical group works with the results. After processing, the data is sent to the manager.
Factor analysis and modeling	Calculation of the influence of each factor according to the statistical formula.
Multidimensional scale	Mathematical evaluation of data to reduce the number of factors and justify the results.
Economic scenarios	It is used in economics and financial management to measure and evaluate financial results.
decision tree	It is used for a large number of directions for the development of the situation - sub-scenarios.

Technology

Situational analysis involves the use of a bank of standard situations, in which you can find an analogue of a specific life problem of an enterprise. When the task is close to the already existing standard, then its solution does not require much energy. If the situation is unique, then in order to analyze it, it is necessary to find the factors that influenced the course of events. To evaluate them, one of the methods is used, for example, brainstorming. It is carried out in two stages:

Generation of ideas. How will the situation develop? How to influence her?
Ideas are discussed. The decision is made collectively.

The advantage of situational analysis is that it is based on real problems that appear in the life of the organization. Its technologies as a final product provide not only the adopted managerial decision, but also data for adjusting the strategy.

Systems approach

The essence of a systematic approach to management is the application of a theory that considers an enterprise as a complex of elements. With a combination of structure, personnel, resources, technology and goals, a management system is formed - an organization. The systems approach is based on the following principles:

all activities in the enterprise are interconnected;
management decisions affect each element of the system;
solving the problem of one element should not create problems in another area.

A systematic approach has become the basis for the development of management tasks in various areas. It became the basis for the emergence of the theory of unpredictable cases: new situations in which the leader finds himself are unique and at the same time connected with the experience already gained.

The essence of the system-situational approach and analysis

A combination of a systematic and situational approach makes it possible to use in practice a complex analysis of situations. Organization is a system of elements associated with the external environment. Big number factors inside the enterprise and outside it forces the management to apply a variety of management methods. System-situational analysis allows you to choose the most adapted to the given conditions management methods. Let's consider its features on the example of a combined SWOT analysis.

The meaning of the SWOT analysis is to conduct self-control of the company's activities. Self-analysis consists of four areas:

strengths and weaknesses of the organization (factors of the internal environment);
opportunities and threats (external environment).

The purpose of the situational analysis is to get a complete picture of the state of the enterprise at the time of the study. The result should be a revision of the position of the organization, a departure from existing opinions to new development programs. The subject of situational analysis in this case is the environment: consumers, competitors, intermediaries and other external factors. The subject of system analysis is the organization and internal factors.

A situational analysis, an example of which can be seen on the basis of the SWOT table, allows you to form a detailed idea of the strengths and weaknesses of any enterprise.

All activities of the organization are covered by system-situational analysis. An example based on the SWOT table shows how to collect information to identify new strategies. In the course of the analysis, tasks and methods for implementing the strategy and introducing changes in the company are identified.

Situational analysis allows you to describe the market situation in detail. A comprehensive view of the company's activities makes it possible to identify current problems and crises. The results of the analysis are a reliable basis for decision-making, a descriptive basis for recommendations and prioritization.

Situational, or "SWOT (SWOT) analysis" (first letters English words: strengths - strengths, weaknesses - weaknesses, opportunities - opportunities and threats - dangers, threats), can be carried out both for the organization as a whole and for individual types of business. Its results are further used in the development of strategic plans and marketing plans.

Analysis of strengths and weaknesses characterizes the study of the internal environment of the organization. The internal environment has several components, each of which includes a set of key processes and elements of the organization (types of business), the state of which together determines the potential and the opportunities that the organization has. The internal environment includes marketing, financial, production and personnel and organizational components, each of which has its own structure. In table. 2.1 provides an example of a possible form for analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of an organization.

In addition, the internal environment, as it were, is completely permeated with the organizational culture, which, like the individual components of the internal environment, should be subjected to the most serious study in the process of analyzing the internal environment of the organization. Since organizational culture does not have a clear manifestation, its analysis on a formal basis is very difficult. Although, of course, you can try to export using the given form to evaluate such factors as the presence of a mission that unites the activities of employees; the presence of certain common values; pride in your organization; a motivation system that is clearly linked to the results of the work of employees; psychological climate in the team, etc.

Organizational culture can contribute to the fact that the organization acts as a strong, stable structure surviving in the competitive struggle. But it may also be that the organizational culture weakens the organization, preventing it from successfully developing even if it has a high technical, technological and financial potential. The particular importance of the analysis of organizational culture for strategic planning is that it not only determines the relationship between people in the organization, but also has a strong influence on how the organization builds its interaction with the external environment, how it treats its customers and what methods it chooses to conducting competition.

If we combine the data in Table. 2.1, then it is possible to build a matrix "importance - efficiency" (Fig. 2.9), in the cells of which conclusions are drawn based on the results of the analysis of those components of the internal environment that are located in these cells.

In order to successfully survive in the long term, an organization must be able to predict what difficulties it may encounter in the future, and what new opportunities may open up for it. Therefore, strategic planning, studying the external environment, focuses on finding out what threats and what opportunities the external environment is fraught with.

The SWOT analysis methodology involves first identifying strengths and weaknesses, as well as threats and opportunities, and then establishing chains of links between them, which can later be used to formulate organizational strategies.

First, taking into account the specific situation in which the organization is located, a list of its weaknesses and strengths is compiled, as well as a list of threats (dangers) and opportunities.

Next, a connection is established between them. For this, a SWOT matrix is compiled, which has the following form (Fig. 2.10). On the left, two sections are distinguished (strengths and weaknesses), in which, accordingly, all the strengths and weaknesses of the organization identified at the first stage of the analysis are entered. At the top of the matrix, there are also two sections (opportunities and threats), in which all identified opportunities and threats are entered.

At the intersection of sections, four fields are formed; "SIV" (strength and opportunities); "SIS" (force and threats); "SLV" (weakness and opportunity); "SLU" (weakness and threats). In each of these fields, the researcher must consider all possible pair combinations and highlight those that should be taken into account when developing an organization's behavior strategy. For those couples that have been selected from the "SIV" field, a strategy should be developed to use the strengths of the organization in order to get a return on the opportunities that have appeared in the external environment. For those couples who find themselves in the “SLV” field, the strategy should be built in such a way that, due to the opportunities that have appeared, they try to overcome the weaknesses in the organization. If the couple is on the SIS field, then the strategy should involve the use of the strength of the organization to eliminate threats. Finally, for couples in the SLU field, the organization must develop a strategy that would allow it to both get rid of weaknesses and try to prevent the threat looming over it.

For the successful application of the SWOT methodology, it is important to be able not only to uncover threats and opportunities, but also to try to evaluate them in terms of how important it is for the organization to take into account each of the identified threats and opportunities in the strategy of its behavior.

To assess the opportunities, the method of positioning each specific opportunity on the opportunity matrix (Fig. 2.11) is used.

This matrix is built as follows: the degree of influence of the opportunity on the organization's activities (strong, moderate, small) is postponed from above; on the side is the probability that the organization will be able to seize the opportunity (high, medium and low). Within the matrix, the ten opportunity fields have different meanings for the organization. Opportunities that fall into the fields "BC", "VU" and "SS" are of great importance for the organization, and they must be used. Opportunities falling on the fields "SM", "NU" and "NM" practically do not deserve attention. With regard to opportunities that fall into the remaining fields, management should make a positive decision on their use if the organization has sufficient resources.

A similar matrix is compiled for hazard assessment (Figure 2.12). Those threats that fall on the "VR", "VC" and "SR" fields pose a very great danger to the organization and require immediate and mandatory elimination. Threats that fall into the "BT", "SK" and "HP" fields should also be in the field of view of senior management and be eliminated as a matter of priority. As for the threats that are on the fields of "NK", "ST" and "VL", a careful and responsible approach to their elimination is required here.

The threats that have fallen into the remaining fields should also not fall out of sight of the organization's management, their development should also be carefully monitored, although the task of eliminating them as a priority is not set.

As for the specific content of the considered matrices, it is recommended to identify opportunities and threats in three directions: market, product and activities for the sale of products in target markets (pricing, distribution and promotion of products). The source of opportunities and threats may be consumers, competitors, changes in macro-environmental factors, for example, the legislative framework, customs policy. It is advisable to conduct this analysis by answering the following questions in relation to opportunities and threats in three areas:

1. The nature of the opportunity (threat) and the reason for its occurrence.

2. How long will it exist?

3. What power does she have?

4. How valuable (dangerous) is it?

5. What is the extent of its influence?

To analyze the environment, the method of compiling its profile can also be applied. This method is convenient to apply to compiling a profile separately of the macro-environment, the immediate environment and the internal environment. Using the environmental profiling method, it is possible to assess the relative importance for the organization of individual environmental factors.

The environment profiling method is as follows. Separate environmental factors are written out in the environment profile table (Table 2.2). Each factor is given by expert way:

assessment of its importance for the industry on a scale: 3 - strong importance, 2 - moderate importance, 1 - weak importance;

assessment of its impact on the organization on a scale: 3 - strong, 2 - moderate, 1 - weak, 0 - no effect;

· Evaluation of the direction of influence on a scale: +1 - positive impact, - 1 - negative impact.

Table 2.2

Environment profile

Further, all three expert assessments are multiplied, and an integral assessment is obtained, showing the degree of importance of this factor for the organization. From this assessment, management can conclude which of the environmental factors are relatively more important to their organization and therefore deserve the most serious attention, and which factors deserve less attention.

Annex 2 contains a questionnaire that can be used to assist in conducting a situational analysis.

Introduction
1.1 Situational analysis as a management function
1.2 Situational analysis methodology4

2. SWOT-analysis of Barter LLC (Meridian hotels)

Conclusion
List of sources used

Introduction

One of the exceptionally effective methods of introspection and self-control over the results of the economic activity of the enterprise and management marketing activities is a situational analysis. Its purpose is to show the top management and heads of individual departments a kind of "cut" of the situation in which the enterprise is at the time of the analysis. A well-conducted situational analysis allows the management of even a prosperous enterprise to get rid of illusions and take a sober look at the true state of affairs in the enterprise, identify new, most promising directions developing the core business, including developing a forward-looking business plan, marketing plan, or strategic marketing program.

Marketing (situational) analysis, covering in a complex the entire production and economic activity of the enterprise, should ultimately lead to the promotion of new ideas and goals, the development and evaluation of ways to achieve them, the relevant strategic directions of development and the adoption of management decisions for their implementation. Such an analysis can be carried out only if it is led by the general director (director) of the enterprise or joint-stock company.

Situational analysis is one of the sources for developing enterprise forecasts, business plans and other sections of long-term plans. AT international practice It is customary to conduct a situational analysis once or twice a year, not only in order to manage marketing activities, but also to control it.

The main subject of the situational analysis is the immediate environment of the enterprise, the system in which it operates: these are consumers, competitors, traders, sales intermediaries, as well as suppliers.

The purpose of the course work is to conduct a situational analysis of the enterprise.

Research objectives:

Consider the theoretical aspects of conducting a situational analysis;

Conduct a situational analysis on the example of LLC "Barter" (Hotel "Meridian")

The following documents were used as information sources for writing this work: balance sheets, literature on the financial and economic activities of the enterprise, publications of economic journals and newspapers.

1. Theoretical aspects of the concept of situational analysis

1.1 Situational analysis as a management function

Most people plan their activities for the day (month, year, etc.), then organize the resources that will be required to complete the plan. This day-to-day work involves a range of managerial functions. Those. management should be viewed as a cyclical process consisting of specific types managerial activities, called management functions.

At present, the historically established contradiction remains in the definition of functions, in their differentiation and integration.

Some initial positions can be formulated. The essence, the content of management is manifested in the functions. Hence, the control function is the function of the control process.

Management is a function of biological, social, technical, organizational systems, which ensures the preservation of their structure, supports a certain mode of activity.

Management function - a direction or type of management activity, characterized by a separate set of tasks and carried out by special techniques and methods.

Planning is the development of a plan that defines what needs to be achieved and by what levers, in accordance with time and space.

Accounting is a consistent reflection of the facts of the economic activities of a particular organization.

Control is one of the leading management functions. Control is the process of measuring (comparing) the actual results achieved with the planned ones.

Situational analysis -- these are complex technologies for the preparation, adoption and implementation of a managerial decision, based on the analysis of a single managerial situation.

Situational analysis comes from specific situations, problems that arise in the real activities of the organization, which must be taken by a managerial decision. Situational analysis technologies make it possible not to be limited to making managerial decisions in a specific managerial situation. They allow based on a deeper analysis of situations, the establishment of trends, patterns and factors that determine their development, more reasonably make long-term management decisions, up to the adjustment of the organization's strategic goals.

The situational approach attempts to link specific techniques and concepts to specific situations in order to achieve the organization's goals most effectively. Daily affairs and current problems are the objects of the situational analysis. The situational approach assumes that the activities of organizations, especially those of a related profile, have much in common. At the same time, each situation is individual, and the management decision must be made in the specific situation that has developed for the control object at the moment.

In the situational analysis, universal technologies, methods, techniques have been developed that about which are suitable not only for one particular decision-making situation, but also for e situation class logo.

However, only a specially conducted analysis of precisely the situation that for the control object at the time of the decision, allows professional e negger to choose one or another, sometimes the only, specific management technology, method, technique, solution, etc. and leading to the goal.

The situational approach can be represented as consisting of the following main components, which in a more compact form can be formulated as follows:

- study of modern technologies of situational analysis

- anticipation of the consequences of decisions

- interpretation of the situation with the selection of the most important factors (variables) and assessment possible consequences their changes

- Making an effective decision.

When conducting situational analysis, specially developed technologies are used, based largely on the use of modern methods teaching, analysis and processing of expert information.

The definition of situational variables plays a central role in the situational approach. They are the key to understanding the situation, and hence to making effective management decisions.

Therefore, one of the main problems solved by situational analysis is the establishment of factors that determine the development of the situation. If we want to single out all the factors influencing the development of the situation to one degree or another, then this task will be, on the one hand, unrealistic, and on the other, meaningless. It will be unrealistic because the development of the situation is influenced, perhaps insignificantly, by a lot of factors.

The task of establishing all the factors influencing the development of the situation is meaningless because any complete analysis of the situation brought to the final logical point becomes practically impossible. It is impossible to trace all connections and interactions of factors. The complexity of the analysis increases sharply. The quality of the result obtained, due to the above reasons, does not increase, but decreases.

Therefore, one of the main tasks of a situational analysis is to identify not all, but the main factors that have a significant impact on the development of the situation, and discard those factors that cannot have a significant impact.

Today, several technologies are known and used to establish the main influencing factors as a result of the analysis of a particular situation, because: situational management case scaling

· "Brain attack"

・Two-round survey

Multidimensional scaling

· Factor analysis

Case method

The method of "brainstorming" is one of the main ones in the organization and conduct of examinations. A significant role in the "brainstorming" belongs to the leader, who heads the meeting of the expert commission.

In real production activities, this may be a meeting convened by the manager to discuss a particular problem that has arisen and establish the main factors that determine it. further development for the purpose of developing and making managerial decisions.

"Brainstorming" in situational analysis, as a rule, consists of two rounds. In the first round, ideas are generated, and in the second round, the identified ideas are discussed, evaluated, and a collective point of view is developed.

First tour is carried out in such a way that each of those present can freely express their opinion about what determines the development of the situation, from his point of view, according to what patterns it develops, what control actions from the management of the organization can be effective and lead to the goal. In this round, the leader must support any of the expressed opinions, giving the person who expressed it the opportunity to more fully present his point of view and develop it. At the same time, an atmosphere of goodwill should be maintained, freeing the person expressing his point of view from excessive constraint.

Any expressed point of view, idea must be discussed and cannot be declared false, even if it seems to the moderator of the meeting almost certainly unpromising.

If in the process of "brainstorming" in the first round the leader supports only promising, from his point of view, ideas, then often this brings obviously lower results.

We emphasize that the task of the first round of "brainstorming" in establishing the factors that determine the development of the situation is to get the most complete picture of the factors that can influence the development of the situation.

In the second round of the factors identified in the first round, only the most significant should be retained. In order to do this justifiably and to choose among them the really defining ones, it is necessary to critically evaluate them.

Here the so-called judgment method can be used. The specialists participating in the second stage are divided into supporters and opponents of the expressed opinion.

Supporters try to provide the necessary evidence in favor of the expressed point of view, and opponents try to refute them. The leader, based on the results of the discussion, makes the final decision on the inclusion of one or another factor among those that really determine the development of the situation.

If, during the ongoing situational analysis, it turns out that some factors were unjustifiably considered to be fundamental, they will be excluded. If additional significant factors are identified, they can also be included among the main ones.

Two round survey. In the first round of a two-round survey, each of the specialists invited by the manager to participate in the work to identify the most important factors that determine the development of the situation fills out a specially designed questionnaire in which they indicate such factors and give a rationale for classifying them as the most important. The factors included in the questionnaire are ranked by the specialist according to the degree of their influence on the development of the situation.

In the second round, a cross-review of the questionnaires completed in the first round is carried out. This means that questionnaires filled out by one specialist are evaluated by others and agree or disagree with the assessments made by him. Disagreement with the opinion of a specialist must be argued.

Specialists who evaluate the opinion of a specialist also rank the factors presented in the questionnaire.

The results of the second round are processed by the analytical group, which, on the basis of the data presented in the questionnaires, forms a list of factors that, according to experts, determine the development of the situation.

This takes into account the results of the ranking of the factors indicated by each of the specialists, as well as the experts who evaluated his opinion.

The analytical group also determines the resulting ranking of the factors indicated by the experts.

All the information received from specialists, after being processed by the analytical group, goes to the manager for making a final decision on the factors that determine the development of the situation.

Two-round "brainstorming" and two-round questioning are among the universal methods of situational analysis and can be used not only to determine the factors that determine the development of the situation, but also to solve other problems of situational analysis.

Factor analysis. Factor analysis is based on the assumption that, on the basis of statistical data, an analytical dependence can be obtained, reflecting the degree of influence of factors and changes in their values on planned or actual indicators characterizing the situation.

Factor analysis solves the problem of determining:

- factors necessary to identify all significant dependencies that affect the development of the situation;

- coefficients (sometimes called loads) that characterize the influence of each of the identified factors on indicators that reflect the state and development of the situation.

The application of the factor analysis method allows, based on the processing of statistical information, to classify factors into essential and non-essential, main and non-main, internal and external.

The coefficients of influence of each of the selected factors calculated on the basis of data processing allow, on the one hand, to determine the ranking of factors by importance, i.e., arrange the factors in descending order of their importance, and on the other hand, to obtain a formula for calculating the expected values of indicators characterizing the situation , with one or another change in the values of the factors.

The results obtained using factor analysis make it possible to more reasonably assess the expected changes in the situation with certain expected changes in factors due to emerging trends or managerial influences, the expediency of which is established in the process of using situational analysis technologies.

Multidimensional scaling. An excess of information about the factors that determine the development of a situation often leads to a decrease in the quality of the situational analysis being carried out. The main task of the multidimensional scaling method is precisely to reduce the number of factors that must be taken into account when analyzing and evaluating the expected changes in the situation as a result of certain managerial decisions. The refusal of the management action on the part of the organization's management is also one of the possible options for a management decision.

Reducing the number of factors that need to be taken into account in a situational analysis is sometimes referred to as downsizing.

An equally important task solved by the multidimensional scaling method, along with a reduction in dimension, is also a meaningful interpretation of the resulting set of factors.

The initial information for multidimensional scaling can be assessments of the similarity and difference by specialists of various options for the development of the situation. Various estimates of proximity and differences are determined different meanings indicators characterizing the state of the situation. The initial set is also a preliminary set of particular criteria, although their number, as a rule, exceeds the number of really important criteria.

We note the important point that when using the multidimensional scaling method, the factors that really determine the development of the situation may not be known. They are set during the application of the method.

Based on the mathematical processing of the initial information, the factors that really influence the development of the situation are established.

The multidimensional scaling method got its name because, as a result of the transformation of the initial information, the main indicators characterizing the change in the situation are estimated by a relatively small number of factors, measured in a relatively small number of scales.

Each factor identified in this way receives a meaningful interpretation from the experts involved in the situational analysis.

The use of the multidimensional scaling method contributes to the establishment of the most significant factors that determine the development of situations.

Among the methods that can also be used in a situational analysis to determine the factors that determine the development of a situation and the degree of their influence on its development are methods for the formation of evaluation systems in multi-criteria assessment, methods for the formation of generalized criteria, qualimetric methods, etc.

Other important point after establishing the factors that determine the development of the situation, it is the study of the mechanisms that determine this development, the interaction of factors, the impact of sometimes oppositely oriented forces, competition, etc.

Modeling the situation can help to better understand the situation and the dynamics of its development. A well-developed model allows a more complete analysis of the situation, understanding the driving forces of its development, the role of certain factors. The first example of modeling a situation is to obtain dependencies of indicators characterizing the development of the situation, when the values of the most significant factors change.

So, for example, if one of the main indicators characterizing the economic activity of an enterprise is profit (P), and the main factors affecting the profit received by the enterprise are:

- competitiveness of products (F k),

- production volume (F p),

- the cost of manufactured products (F s),

- current demand for products in the sales markets (F SG |)

And the dependency type is set.

where K k, K p, K s, K cn are coefficients characterizing the comparative weight of the established factors, then we can calculate the expected value of profit for a particular value of the factors on which it depends.

In organizations using modeling, it is possible to develop forecasts for a fairly long-term perspective. The timing of the forecasting period largely depends on the nature of the organization's activities. But with a stable economy, this can be a fairly reliable forecast for 5 years. The forecast, developed using custom-built models, may include key financial and operational indicators. It allows you to correctly assess the expected development of the situation and make decisions that lead to the goal.

If the economy is unstable, then models that can be used to make short-term forecasts for the immediate planning period are more useful.

In organizations that have managed to create adequate and reliable models for analyzing situations, their use allows management to really manage the development of situations, consciously choose one or another direction of development, and not be left to chance alone.

The process of developing and making managerial decisions is quite dynamic, it can largely depend on the direction in which the situation will develop, what will be the tactics of competitors, what demand will be for products in the sales markets, what changes are undergoing technologies that are used in the activities of the organization, what new generations of equipment are needed, etc.

Conducting a situational analysis and making managerial decisions on its basis, it is impossible to describe all the stages in which the situation will develop for many managerial cycles in advance.

But it is possible, when planning the activities of an organization on the basis of situational analysis technologies, to foresee the most probable scenarios for the development of a decision-making situation and to prepare the most preferable alternative solutions in each of the possible ramifications of the development of the situation.

Case method. Step-by-step analysis of situations (case method) is an effective way to analyze managerial situations. In this case, the proposed situations should be close to the problems that managers have to face in life. The skills gained as a result of the analysis can be useful in further practical activities.

The analysis consists of four steps:

individual preparation of analysis;

informal group discussion;

discussion in the audience;

summary of learning outcomes at the end of the lesson.

Based on the foregoing, it follows that the analysis of management organization is a complex interrelated process of studying the structure and content of the management cycle, the organization of managerial work, information, technical and mathematical support, the composition of bodies and management costs. It allows you to give a complete description of the elements, structural units and levels of the management system, assess their condition and justify the directions for further development. Depending on the goals and objectives set, the analysis can cover different parts of the control system. Analysis is the link between all management functions and is carried out cyclically.

1.2 Situation analysis methodology

Conducting a situational analysis, as a rule, is effective only when it is carried out professionally, using modern technologies and specially developed methods.

Situational analysis allows , based on a deeper understanding of the situation and the dynamics of its development, develop and make more informed management decisions, as well as anticipate the possible occurrence of crisis situations and take timely measures to prevent them.

Particularly relevant is the conduct of a situational analysis in solving complex complex problems, as well as problems of particular importance to the organization.

Following the modern understanding of the tasks and possibilities of situational analysis, we will describe its main stages that form a single technology. In doing so, we will adhere to the following terminology.

Situation-- this is a combination of internal and external factors, circumstances, conditions, active and passive operating forces, requiring the adoption of appropriate strategic and important tactical decisions that determine the activities of the organization, as well as ensuring the prevention of crisis phenomena.

It is assumed that the situation develops in accordance with certain patterns ("rules of the game") under the influence of certain internal mechanisms and events occurring outside the organization.

Reference situation -- a typical situation characteristic of this direction, which has already arisen earlier, for which there is information about the decisions made, actions and the results of these actions.

Bank of situations -- this is systematized information about situations, usually stored on a machine medium, equipped with special tools for efficient storage, retrieval and updating (updating) of data.

Expert commission -- a group of highly qualified specialists formed to conduct an examination (in particular, "brainstorming") in the process of situational analysis.

Analyst -- a specialist with both the necessary professional knowledge and experience in analyzing situations in this area, and experience in supporting situational analysis, preparing analytical reports and conclusions.

decision maker -- person or body that makes decisions in the analyzed situation.

Index-- a generalized indicator calculated using an evaluation system and characterizing the state of the situation.

Let us describe the main stages of situational analysis.

Stage 1. Preparation for the situational analysis

It is advisable to start preparing for a situational analysis with a clear definition of the decision-making situation. As you know, in many cases, the right task is half the success. And success in our case is, first of all, a correctly understood situation and an effective managerial decision.

It is necessary that all specialists invited to participate in the situation analysis have an unambiguous and uniform understanding of the goals of the analysis being carried out and the tasks facing them.

Sometimes it seems appropriate to prepare special analytical reports for specialists involved in the situational analysis, members of the expert commission formed to assess the situation and develop alternative management options.

Modern technologies for conducting situational analysis, which should provide a fairly complete and in-depth analysis of the situation and the development of sound management decisions, require appropriate methodological, organizational, informational, and computer support.

To ensure that the situational analysis is carried out in accordance with modern technologies, it is necessary to have a working group, which should provide organizational support for the situational analysis procedures, its technical side.

The provision of the methodical, informational and content part of computer support lies with the analytical group, which should include both technologists for organizing and conducting situational analysis, and analysts - specialists professionally working in the field to which the object of situational analysis belongs.

One of the main tasks of the analytical group is to clearly define and set the task of situational analysis for specialists invited to participate in its implementation. The goals of the analysis of the situation, the goals of preparing alternative options and developing recommendations for making strategic and tactical management decisions by decision makers should be clearly formulated.

Determining the goals and setting the task of the situational analysis are carried out by the analytical group in the process of joint work with the decision maker.

At the stage of preparation for the situational analysis, the analytical group determines the profile specializations of the 1st level experts necessary to assess the situation in those areas of the situational analysis that are determined when setting the goals of the analysis.

The requirements for experts of the 2nd level are also determined.

At the preparatory stage, the selection of experts of the 1st and 2nd levels is carried out - the formation of expert commissions for conducting a situational analysis, taking into account their professional training.

One of the main tasks of this stage is also the preparation of information about the situation, internal and external factors, related problems, etc., influencing its development.

It is expedient to prepare a meaningful description of the situation, including with the help of keywords, which may be useful in the formation of information flows in the process of conducting a situational analysis.

Stage 2. Analysis of information

The analysis of the received information about the decision-making situation begins with the search for possible analogues. Information about analogues is presented in the form of a certain number (as a rule, several) reference situations. The reference situation is characterized by the fact that quite a lot is known about it, in particular, what decisions were made, what are the results of the decisions made, and what decisions lead to the goal.

If the situation that has arisen is one of the reference ones, then it is known how to act in it. Therefore, the preparation and decision-making in such a situation as the development of appropriate recommendations do not cause much difficulty. Information about a similar reference situation is transmitted to the expert commission for the preparation of a final opinion.

If the situation that has arisen is such that it seems close to one of the reference situations, then it is necessary to assess how significant the existing differences are.

Sometimes differences in the situation, at first glance, not very significant, can lead to the same actions to opposite results. And in this case, information about the corresponding reference situation is transmitted to the expert commission for the development of a final conclusion. In this case, the differences established by the analytical group must be indicated.

In the bank of situations, along with the reference ones, information about other situations that have happened before can also be stored.

If the situation that has arisen is such that there are no close reference situations, then all available information about the situation, together with information about previous similar (non-reference) situations, is transmitted by the analytical group of the expert commission.

With a sufficiently large amount of information about the situation at this stage, it often turns out to be appropriate to conduct a preliminary examination to reject insufficiently meaningful or unreliable information.

In this case, it may also be useful to assess the degree of duplication of information and classify the information received.

Based on the analysis, a package of information about the situation is formed, which is necessary for the situational analysis.

The stage of information analysis can be completed with the preparation of an analytical review of information about the situation for participants in the collective expertise to develop strategic and tactical decisions, including information about:

Previously made strategic and tactical decisions in the analyzed situation and similar ones;

Mechanisms for their implementation;

Control over the execution of decisions;

Accompanying the progress of their implementation;

The results of evaluating the effectiveness of decisions made;

The results of evaluating the effectiveness of their implementation.

This information should be taken into account at all stages of the development of strategic and tactical decisions or the preparation of recommendations.

Stage 3. Analysis of the situation

If the situation is not one of the reference ones, then one of the central tasks of this stage is to identify the main factors that determine the development of the situation. The most common way to solve this problem is to use the method of expert assessments, that is, the work of an expert commission. To solve this problem, in particular, the "brainstorming" method can be used, as one of the most effective ways for the expert commission to work in establishing the main factors that determine the development of the situation.

To establish the main factors that determine the development of the situation, other methods discussed earlier can be used.

After the factors are established, their comparative significance is determined, that is, the degree of their influence on the development of the situation.

Formation of indices may be envisaged - special assessment systems designed to assess the state of the situation from the point of view of decision makers and strategic goals for the development of the situation.

In order to ensure the real use of the evaluation systems formed for the situational analysis, it is necessary to determine the scales in which it is supposed to measure each of the main factors included in the evaluation system.

After the main factors that determine the development of the situation, their comparative significance and the scales in which each factor is supposed to be measured are established, one can proceed to the formation of decisive rules for assessing the situation.

An example of the use of a decision rule can be the use of the above dependence, which characterizes the economic activity of an enterprise with the help of such main factors affecting the profit received by the enterprise as the competitiveness of products, production volume, the cost of products and the current demand for products in the markets.

If the profit is within the planned ranges, then there is no need for additional control actions.

If the profit turned out to be below the acceptable threshold value, then it is necessary to take measures that would contribute to a more successful economic activity of the enterprise.

As can be seen from the above example, along with the criterion, which is the dependence that characterizes the economic success of the enterprise, in decision rule there must be a threshold value (threshold values), with the help of which the need to make a particular management decision is determined.

The threshold values in the decision rule correspond to different levels of the state of the situation - from critical (inadmissible) to the most preferable.

There can be multiple threshold values in a decision rule. Depending on the value taken by the dependence characterizing the state of the situation, and how it correlates with the threshold values, the analyzed situation receives one or another assessment, certain recommendations can be given on the expediency of actions that should be taken.

It is with the use of decision rules that the states of the situation are determined in which the application of certain control actions is necessary.

In the formation of decision rules, indices characterizing the state of the situation can be used.

One of the main tasks of this stage of the situational analysis is to analyze the key profile problems of the situation, including an assessment of the weaknesses and strengths, dangers and risks, and the prospects for the development of the situation within the framework of the problems under consideration.

The result of this analysis is a clearer understanding of the problems that arise for the organization in connection with the current situation.

The analysis of the profile problems of the situation, which allows, when making managerial decisions, to sufficiently fully present the main problems that must be solved by the management of the organization, allows us to proceed to the analysis of the situation as a whole.

Conducting an analysis of the situation as a whole also involves an assessment of the weaknesses and strengths of the situation as a whole, the dangers and risks, and the prospects for the development of the situation.

The best result of a situational analysis will be if, based on it, the decision maker or the analytical team can see the way to achieve the goals of the organization with the least expenditure of resources.

Stage 4. Development of scenarios for the possible development of the situation

Scenario development begins with a meaningful description and definition of a list of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation.

To solve this problem, the method of "brainstorming" can be used. Determination of the list of the most probable scenarios for the development of the situation forms the main focus of analytical work to determine the most probable directions for the development of the situation.

The most common ways to develop scenarios, including those that will be given below, involve the formation of a list of the main factors influencing the development of the situation. Using the identified factors, models of the development of the situation are formed. When forming models of a situation, indices characterizing its state can be used.

Different options for changing the values of factors in accordance with the developed models lead to different options for changing the situation - to different scenarios for its development.

Naturally, first of all, those changes in the values of factors that seem to be the most probable to experts will be considered. Expected changes in the main factors characterizing the development of the situation serve as the basis for developing a forecast.

Predictive estimates of changes in the values of the main factors are determined by experts. When determining the dynamics of changes in the values of factors, the method of constructing expert curves can be used.

According to this method, experts consistently indicate critical points in time at which changes in the development trends of the situation, jumps in the values of factors, etc. can occur. changes to these values. Thus, alternative scenarios for the development of the situation are being developed.

The results obtained should be subjected to additional analysis by experts. Experts after a thorough study of the dynamics of the development of the situation, making judgments in defense of their proposed scenario for the development of the situation, and on the part of opponents - objections about the reality of a particular development option, can make adjustments to the predicted scenarios for the development of the situation.

The developed options for the development of the situation should be subjected to a thorough analysis in terms of identifying the main dangers, risks, strengths, prospects for the development of the situation.

The result of the work of experts at this stage is the development of an expert forecast of changes in factors and indices that characterize the situation, presented in the form of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation.

The stage ends with an assessment of the expected stability of the situation for the developed alternative scenarios for its development.

Stage 5. Assessment of the situation

After the most probable scenarios of the possible development of the situation have been identified, the main hazards, risks, strengths and prospects have been identified, the experts evaluate them in terms of the possibility of achieving the goals set by the organization.

The assessment of the development of the situation at this stage is given both by the 1st level experts in terms of the profile problems that arise with the expected development of the situation, and by the 2nd level experts in terms of the development of the situation as a whole in terms of achieving the goals of the organization.

The assessment of the situation may, depending on the procedure envisaged, be carried out by experts individually, or it may be in the process of teamwork expert commission.

In parallel with the assessment of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation at this stage, it is also supposed to generate proposals for developing alternative options for tactical solutions to key profile problems of the situation by experts of the 1st level and experts of the 2nd level - to develop alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions in the analyzed situation .

Naturally, it is precisely those proposals that should be generated that can ensure the achievement of the organization's goals to the maximum extent.

If management decisions made based on the results of a situational analysis are of great importance for the organization, it is advisable to conduct special examinations for a comparative assessment of alternative options for tactical decisions on key profile problems of the situation and the choice of the most preferable ones.

It is advisable to conduct expert examinations on a comparative assessment of alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions for the analyzed situation as a whole and the choice of the most preferred ones by experts of the 2nd level.

The main purpose of conducting examinations at this stage is the generation for further consideration and analysis of sound management decisions and control actions to achieve the goals of the organization.

Stage 6. Data processing and evaluation of the results of the examination

The development of scenarios for the possible development of the situation requires appropriate data processing, including mathematical. In particular, the mandatory processing of data received from experts is required during a collective examination, when it is necessary to determine the resulting opinion of experts.

Let us list the most important cases when data processing is necessary to determine the results of collective expert assessments in a situational analysis. It is necessary for:

Structuring information,

Formation of expert commissions,

Rejection and systematization of information,

Formation of the evaluation system,

Development of expert forecasts for the development of the situation,

Development of alternative scenarios for the development of the situation,

Generation of alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions,

Comparative evaluation of alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions.

After the preliminary data of the results of the examinations during the situational analysis are obtained, it is necessary to carry out work on their analysis.

The obtained expert information is analyzed from the point of view of the consistency of the opinions of the experts who participated in the examination. The degree of consistency of experts' assessments makes it possible to judge the reliability of the results of the examination, as well as to obtain a meaningful interpretation of the main points of view of experts in the presence of discrepancies between them.

In a comparative assessment of several alternative options for the possible development of events, several possible alternative options for control actions and decisions with the help of which they can be implemented, contradictions may appear in the assessments of experts. Such contradictions should be identified and, if possible, eliminated.

In some cases, it turns out to be appropriate to additionally check the accuracy of the assessments made by the experts. Assessment of the accuracy of expert estimates is a priori, when it is carried out before the estimated event, and a posteriori - after the estimated event.

Thus, data processing when analyzing the results of examinations is necessary for:

Expert consensus assessments,

Estimates of the degree of inconsistency of expert assessments,

A priori and a posteriori estimates of the accuracy of expert estimates.

It is also possible to achieve an increase in the reliability of the recommendations and proposals received as a result of the examination by comparing the results of a comparative assessment of alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions,

obtained using various data processing methods.

If the results of data processing using different methods are close enough, this increases confidence in the reliability of the result.

If the discrepancies in the results obtained are significant, then it makes sense to establish the cause of the discrepancies that have arisen.

The results obtained during data processing, as well as the results of the evaluation of the examinations carried out, are used in the preparation of materials for the decision maker on the situational analysis carried out.

Evaluation of the results of the examination, including data processing in assessing the quality of experts, can also be used to calculate their rating. Based on the rating of experts, decisions are made on the subsequent involvement of experts in the situational analysis.

The result of the work of experts at this stage of the situational analysis is the assessment of the alternative options for management decisions obtained during the situational analysis, the determination of recommendations and proposals for decision makers based on the results of the work performed.

Stage 7. Preparation of analytical materials based on the results of the situational analysis.

This stage is final. It summarizes all the work done. The main task of this stage is to prepare analytical materials containing recommendations on:

Making strategic and tactical decisions in the analyzed situation,

The mechanisms for their implementation

control over the execution of decisions,

Accompanying the implementation of decisions made,

Analysis of the results, including an assessment of the effectiveness of the decisions made and their implementation.

Thus, in particular, the tasks solved by the analytical and working groups include:

Development of a system for tracking the occurrence of critical situations that require a situational analysis;

Creation of monitoring for monitored areas of activity;

Selection, adaptation and development of methods for analyzing and systematizing information;

Selection and adaptation of the statistical data analysis module;

Definition and updating of the list of monitored activities;

Determination of reference situations for each tracked area of activity;

Formation and updating of a bank of situations (both reference and previously analyzed);

Formation and updating of the bank of experts;

Preparation of tools, including mathematical apparatus, to determine the factors characterizing the development of the situation, and indices for assessing their state;

Identification and updating of factors characterizing the state of the situation, assessment of their comparative importance, development of indices for assessing the state of the situation;

Selection and adaptation of methods for the formation of evaluation systems;

Selection and adaptation of methods for organizing, conducting and determining the results of "brainstorming" to assess the situation, including:

Schemes for presenting information;

Schemes for achieving stabilization of opinions and stopping "brainstorming";

Identification of developed alternatives;

Selection and adaptation of expert forecast methods for changes in indicators and indices characterizing the situation;

Selection and adaptation of scenario development methods;

Selection and adaptation of methods for determining the results of collective expert assessments;

Selection and adaptation of methods for assessing the degree of consistency of expert judgments and determining "coalitions" of like-minded experts;

Selection, adaptation and development of methods for assessing the quality of expert opinions, including assessment of accuracy;

Selection and adaptation of methods for situation sensitivity analysis.

The effective use of situational analysis to solve managerial problems of particular importance to the organization is impossible today without appropriate computer support.

Conducting a situational analysis at a modern technological level requires the development and use of data banks (situations, scenarios, experts, the results of a situational analysis of the information received) and special automated systems designed to process data and support the basic procedures of a situational analysis.

Such systems include automated systems support for situational analysis based on the method of analogies, automated systems for diagnosing situations, processing statistical information, multidimensional scaling, factor analysis, cluster analysis, automated systems for assessing situations, automated systems for expert assessment (ASEA) designed to receive, process and analyze expert information , etc.

If situational analysis occupies a significant place in the development of managerial decisions in an organization and is carried out regularly, then it is advisable to create a special organizational structure, the main task of which is to provide and support situational analysis.

In particular, it may be appropriate to establish a situational analysis center or a situational room.

2. SWOT analysis of the Meridian hotel

SWOT is an abbreviation of four English words "Strong" ("strengths"), "Weak" ("weaknesses"), "Opportunitis" ("opportunities"), "Threats" ("threats"). Those. this method of analysis is needed to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the hotel, its opportunities and commercial threats.

When the SWOT analysis is completed, the hotel manager is presented with a complete picture of the business in his establishment: the factors that carry commercial risks are identified, the positive and negative aspects of the establishment are identified. Such an analysis is used not only to assess the competitiveness of the hotel, it is extremely useful for determining the development strategy of the institution: based on the weights of factors, the manager can easily determine the priorities for the development of the hotel.

So, if the hotel does not specialize in welcoming foreign guests, then the factor "knowledge of a foreign language by the hotel staff" will have a fairly low weight. Then the director may not pay much attention to this factor, because there are more important tasks. In the same case, when the hotel receives mainly foreign guests, such a factor should be given a sufficiently large weight. Now the director can see that he should urgently start teaching hotel staff a foreign language in hotel business courses, because other factors have much less weight.

LLC "Barter" is the management company of the Meridian Hotel. The Meridian Hotel is located in the most picturesque area of Cape Churkin, away from the bustle of the city and noisy roads. Hotel "Meridian" is a modern and comfortable complex of the European level, located in one of the most picturesque districts of Vladivostok.

The hotel offers a magnificent view of the business center of the city, the Golden Horn Bay and the bridge.

Not far from the hotel is the Vladivostok Fishing Port, the Regional Diagnostic Center, many shops and cafes. Address: Vladivostok, st. Ochakovskaya, 5

The hotel "Meridian" offers 140 rooms of varying degrees of comfort. Meridian Hotel offers rooms of different categories:

standard;

Each room has everything you need for a good rest and stay: comfortable furniture, household appliances, LCD TV with cable TV, telephone with access to international and long-distance communications, access to the Internet using WI-FI technology.

Under the very dome of the hotel is the restaurant "Seven Heavens" - an ideal place for romantic encounters, banquets and holidays. Restaurant visitors will be able to enjoy not only the delicious dishes of the chefs, but also magnificent views of the city and the sea.

On the first floor of the hotel "Meridian" there is a beauty salon "Estet Hall", one of the best in Vladivostok. Masters are winners and participants of numerous professional competitions, having extensive experience and recognition in their field.

Guests of "Meridian" can also use the additional services of laundry, sauna, depository, round-the-clock guarded parking. The combination of high quality service and affordable prices- this is the main advantage, thanks to which many guests of the city opt for the Meridian Hotel.

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Difference between system and situational approach to management. The role of the situational approach in the development of control theory. Possibilities of a systematic approach. The problem of the best correlation between the degrees of adequacy and optimality of a managerial decision.

control work, added 12/03/2009

The concept of "system-situational approach to management". Factors affecting the effectiveness of the system-situational approach in the management of the organization. Analysis of the effectiveness of the application of the method in the work of the Kemerovo Pedagogical College.

test, added 10/20/2009

Objectives of situational management in logistics systems for the production of products, works, services. Element Structure operational management: functions of regulation, planning, accounting, control, analysis and regulation. Principles of effective management.

Situational analysis, or analysis of political situations, is one of the most popular, widely used methods of analysis in applied political science research. In particular, situational analysis is simply indispensable in developing strategies for political actors, creating forecasts of their behavior in specific political conditions.

The methodological basis of situational analysis is a systematic approach, which we have already discussed in connection with modeling. The political situation from the standpoint of a systematic approach is “such a combination of conditions and circumstances political life, which ... can be isolated from the political process as a relatively completed fragment of it. As a rule, such a combination of conditions and circumstances is formed in connection with a political event or phenomenon that has taken place or is being planned (for example, elections, the adoption of a significant law, etc.). The political situation has an internal structure and connections, has the properties of a system and can be separated from the political process as a system from the environment. Accordingly, the political situation has spatial, temporal and informational boundaries (frames).

Not only in theory, but also in a specific technological algorithm of situational analysis, determining the boundaries of a situation, separating it from the general political process is the first and very important stage. For example, the content of our applied research is an analysis of the pre-election situation in a particular subject Russian Federation. Then the key future event that predetermines the unique combination of political conditions and the interaction of actors (organizing the situation as a whole) will be the upcoming elections to the legislative and representative body authorities in this region. The situation will be pre-election in nature, starting with the activation of key players (as a rule, this happens long before the official start of the election campaign) and until the election is held - this sets the time frame for the situation. The spatial framework is determined by the specifics of the event under study and will, as a rule, coincide with the geographical boundaries of the region.

The second important stage of the situational analysis is the identification of the most active and influential political subjects (actors) involved in the analyzed situation. In terms of the system approach, the “decomposition of the system” is carried out: its simplification by dividing it into constituent elements. Individual political leaders, elite groups, political parties, financial and industrial groups, and even entire institutions (for example, the Government, the Constitutional Court or the State Duma) can act as political actors. On a practical level, the task of identifying key actors is far from simple, and the most difficult thing is to determine the optimal "depth" of their selection.

So, in a situation of a government crisis associated with the threat of a vote of no confidence in the incumbent prime minister, one can stop at the “roughest” level of subjective breakdown of the situation, corresponding to the existing regulatory framework. According to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the main actors (subjects of decision-making) in this case are the State Duma, the Prime Minister and the President. However, in most cases, such a purely institutional approach to identifying actors will not be sufficient. Surely the lower house of the Russian parliament is internally heterogeneous in terms of support for a vote of no confidence, there are "support groups" of the current government and groups of deputies advocating its replacement. Such structuring of the deputy corps may or may not coincide with its factional division. There may be a special position of certain influential deputies, and so on. We must take all this into account when deciding on the allocation of the main actors.

Naturally, a lot will depend on the depth of the analyst’s understanding of each specific situation, but there is also a general rule that can be called the “rule of reasonable sufficiency”: the list of actors should reflect the main interest groups involved in a given situation, but at the same time, the number of actors should not exceed that threshold when the analysis becomes unduly cumbersome. Thus, theoretically, we can identify all 450 deputies of the State Duma as actors in the situation of a government crisis, since formally each of them is a decision-maker (voting) on this issue. However, in practice, it would be extremely difficult to analyze the interactions of such a number of actors. Therefore, we will most likely resort to grouping deputies on the basis of support for the current government (for example: a group of firm supporters, a group of irreconcilable opponents, a group of hesitant, etc.). The limitation on the number of variables involved in the analysis is typical for qualitative methods in general.

The selection of the list of actors of the situation is followed by their characteristics. This is the third stage of the situational analysis, also carried out in accordance with a number of rules of the systems approach. The key positions on which the characteristics of political actors are made are the interests and the goals of the actors arising from them, the content of their actions, resources, typical tactics and strategies.

Interests and long-term goals

An adequate understanding of the interests of the actors is of great importance for creating a correct analytical picture of the political situation. Often, political goals are not based on an abstract desire for power, but on the need to protect specific interests in the sphere of control over certain objects of property in the production sector, licenses for the development of subsoil, etc. For example, when analyzing the participation of representatives of a large aluminum financial and industrial group (FIG) in an election campaign in a particular region, it is necessary to understand what role its assets play in a given subject of the Federation in the system of global business interests. Thus, assets in the power industry will be of strategic importance for this business, since a significant part of the cost of aluminum production is the cost of electricity. Accordingly, the interest of FIGs in strengthening political positions in the region will be of a long-term and strategic nature.

The concept of "goal" has acquired key importance in system analysis. It can be argued that the systemic approach to management is based on the idea of presenting actions performed by people in the form of tasks for choosing goals or ways to achieve them, taking into account the best use of available resources. Academician D.M. Gvishiani considered "the formulation of goals and the clarification of their hierarchy before starting any activity related to management and, in particular, decision-making" as one of the essential features of system analysis. The phrase "hierarchy of goals" reflects the most significant in the system-analytical understanding of this problem: each system has one or more goals, while the tasks of each of its subsystems are functionally subordinate to these goals. Thus, what at one level of consideration is an end, at another, higher level, may turn out to be only a means to an end. Therefore, any given goal may be only one element in a large range of possibilities and alternatives on the way to achieving the goal more. general. Here, one of the most important system principles is implemented - the principle of hierarchy, which states that each component of the system, in turn, is considered as a system, and the system under study in this case is one of the components of a wider system.

As part of the situational analysis, it is important, if possible, to reconstruct the hierarchy of goals of each of the political actors, based on an understanding of their strategic interests.

Political Participation Resources

Potentially, the set of political struggle resources is very extensive. Let's highlight the most significant of them:

administrative resource. It is ensured by the occupation of a political actor or persons associated with him a certain (as a rule, leading) position in power structures, primarily executive. The "dividends" received from control over the administrative resource are quite diverse, especially in the conditions of Russian political culture, and are specific to many regions.

For example, in Moscow, during election campaigns, the administrative resource provides "network" channels of communication with voters, tied to the power vertical (seniors at home and porches, public organizations of veterans and disabled people, comprehensive social welfare centers, educational and healthcare institutions, etc. ). In conditions of rather low electoral activity of the main part of the population, such a resource is of paramount importance.

In regions where there are vast hard-to-reach territories, the administrative resource can significantly save on transportation costs. For example, in the Koryak Autonomous Okrug with a majority settlements there is only air communication, and one hour of a helicopter flight costs about 30 thousand rubles.

Information resource. The term is used in three main contexts. In the first case, this refers to the opportunity to be present in the public information field through control or friendly relations with the media. At the same time, the media can be used not only to form public opinion in mass political campaigns (for example, election campaigns), but also within the framework of lobbying campaigns to form the opinion of certain elite groups.

In the second case, a resource associated with access to certain information is implied. Moreover, the share of “shadow”, non-public processes is high in politics. Access to information in this context is of particular importance, as it contributes to the formation of a more adequate understanding of the situation and, as a result, the adoption of more optimal decisions.

In the third case, they speak of a resource of influence on information flows flowing to decision makers. This is a purely lobbying resource, and its role in the current Russian political situation is only growing. Thus, when a certain candidate is promoted for the position of governor of a particular region, the ability to convey positive information about this candidate to the key decision-makers (in this case, this is primarily the President of the Russian Federation and his authorized representative in this federal district) becomes of particular importance.

A resource of mass support from a significant part of the population. A political actor can possess such a resource either directly (thanks to his own popularity) or with the support of public opinion leaders. This resource is especially important during election campaigns, but not only. A political actor enjoying public support, as a rule, has a wider range of alternatives in his actions. Through mass support, he can legitimize many decisions that less popular politicians would not take.

organizational resource. In Russian conditions, it is often provided at the expense of the administrative resource. The structures of the power hierarchy become the organizational infrastructure for carrying out one or another political line. An organizational resource independent of the power vertical can be created, in particular, through the support of a political party or public organization that has a “grassroots” network of its supporters.

A resource of support from a political party. Such a resource has a "double dimension". It can be, as already mentioned, an integral part of the organizational resource, which is especially important in mass political campaigns, and also if Political Party has a certain popularity - a resource for mobilizing citizens to support certain political initiatives, candidates in electoral campaigns, etc.

Personnel resource, or "team resource". The ability to place qualified people in the appropriate work areas is always an important advantage. Thus, the presence of a strong analyst (or a group of analysts) will contribute to the adequate interpretation of incoming information, the formation of an optimal strategy for political behavior. Talented managers can create or "customize" the organizational structure of a political campaign, and so on.

personal resource. As a rule, two meanings are invested in this concept. Firstly, the personal resource has a "biographical", "reputational" component, since both when participating in electoral campaigns and when promoting leadership positions it is important to have an appropriate reputation, experience, etc. Secondly, a personal resource is understood as the presence of certain character traits that are in demand in various political situations. So, for a public politician, especially participating in an election campaign, it is important to have "charisma", the ability to captivate the masses, oratory, strong communication abilities and skills, psychological safety margin (the ability to "take a hit").

financial resource. Its significance for political actors in modern conditions, especially for mass political campaigns, is obvious. With a strong financial base, it is possible to compensate for “gaps” in such resources as control over the media (through the publication of paid materials), personnel (by attracting qualified specialists at high wages), etc. Perhaps, only a personal resource is completely independent of financial capabilities.

Each selected political actor is characterized in terms of the presence or absence of one or another resource, as well as the degree of efficiency in the use of available resources. The result of the analysis of the resources of each of the actors involved in the situation is expert review their influence in a given situation.

Actions and typical tactics of a political actor

Information about the specific actions of a political actor, carried out by him in a given situation, allows us to formulate hypotheses about the tactical line that he adheres to. At the same time, it is important not to limit ourselves to the current situation itself, supplementing it with a retrospective analysis of the behavior of political actors, i.e. analysis of their actions in the past. Special attention should be given to situations that are similar in one way or another to the one being studied in the present tense. As practice shows, often individual and even group political subjects in similar conditions act in a similar way: in such cases, they speak of an established "script" of behavior, a set of typical reactions to typical circumstances. For example, one political leader in certain situations implements a model of conflict behavior, the other - a compromise one. Identification of typical tactics of action of political actors significantly enhances the predictive capabilities of situational analysis, allows you to better predict the actions of the subjects of the situation.

Biographical analysis is an essential aid in diagnosing the typical tactics of action of individual actors. careful study life path of this or that politician allows us to make reasonable assumptions about the style of political leadership of this actor, the peculiarities of his perception of political reality. So, in most cases, a politician who comes from the party and Komsomol nomenclature of the Soviet era will differ significantly in typical tactics of behavior from a politician who comes from the modern business environment.

The systemic approach in situational analysis is complemented by the activity-psychological one. This is especially valuable for applied political analysis and forecasting, where taking into account the objective and systemic characteristics of the political situation must be combined with an understanding of the characteristics of the psychological perception of the situation by its subjects. “What remains of it (the phenomenon of the social situation. - A.A.) and will the meaning be understood at all after reducing it to an external constellation of various interconnected, but only externally distinguishable types of behavior? - wrote K. Manheim in the book "Ideology and Utopia". “It is quite obvious that the situation that has developed in human society can only be characterized if we take into account the perception of its participants, how they feel the tension associated with it and how they react to this tension that they have comprehended in a certain way” . In other words, as part of a situational analysis, it is important to try to "see the situation" through the eyes of each of its defining participants.

Revealing the structure of the political situation

The structure of a political situation is understood as a set of stable links between its elements - political actors. The categories used to characterize these relationships may vary depending on the goals and objectives of the study, the characteristics individual approach expert analyst. One common approach uses the following categories of link characterization:

By type of relationship: alliance (alliance, partnership), opposition, neutrality;

According to the degree of implementation of this type of relationship in this particular situation: actual (for example, an actual political alliance, when a group of subjects takes joint actions to achieve a common goal) and potential (when there are only prerequisites for coordinating activities). As a rule, the conclusion about the possibility of a potential alliance or opposition is made on the basis of an analysis of the degree of compatibility of the interests of political actors;

According to the predicted degree of strength / long-term nature of the existing type of relationship: tactical and strategic. The understanding of the commonality of long-term interests and goals of political actors is also of paramount importance for the correct diagnosis of the strength of the existing relations. For example, a tactical partnership may develop between two candidates for a certain elected or appointed position in the event that it is beneficial for both of them to weaken the position of a certain third candidate. However, the likelihood of forming a strategic alliance is very small, since the goals of the candidates (occupying a position) conflict. Another example: a certain financial-industrial group is in tactical opposition to a certain high-ranking official N (say, the governor of a region). The purpose of this group is not to remove this official and replace him with his own protege (which would be a state of strategic opposition), but to put pressure on N in order to obtain preferences in the field of activity profiled for FIGs. In the case of solving this problem, the FIG takes steps to form partnerships with Governor N.

Determining the structure of a situation, identifying connections and relationships between its subjects is a complex, complex task. The basis for the formation of assumptions about this is, as a rule, the results of an expert survey and a study of open sources (primarily the media). At the same time, given the latent nature of many relationships in politics, any assumptions in this regard must be carefully tested in accordance with the rules of testing hypotheses and operationalizing concepts. For example, there is an expert opinion that the relationship between governor N and the head of the federal natural monopoly M has deteriorated significantly over the past two years. To test this hypothesis, it is necessary to clearly formulate the set of observed empirical signs that verify or falsify this assumption. First of all, you need to answer the following questions.

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