Methods for evaluating the effectiveness of business planning. Economic evaluation of the project's effectiveness

As the main indicator of the effectiveness of a business plan, it is customary to consider the break-even point indicator.

The size of profits and losses largely depends on the level of sales, which is usually a value that is difficult to predict with a certain accuracy. In order to know what level of sales is required to achieve the profitability of the enterprise, it is necessary to conduct a break-even analysis. The description of this famous slot strategy alternatives, slots keys, attributes and sorts.

Break-even analysis allows you to answer the question: “How many products do you need to sell in order for the company to become profitable?” Each time a product is sold, a portion of the proceeds goes toward fixed costs: This portion, called gross profit, is equal to the selling price minus direct costs. Therefore, for analysis, gross profit must be multiplied by the number of products sold: the break-even point is reached when the total gross profit becomes equal to fixed costs.

Based on the available data, a break-even chart was built for Style LLC (chart 2.1, Appendix 22). In this chart, the sales volume is shown for all products, calculated on the basis of the average price.

The graph shows that when selling products, that is, with a revenue of 53,205,499 rubles. The firm breaks even, with more revenue it begins to make a profit.

At the second stage of evaluating the economic efficiency of the project, such indicators are calculated as:

net discounted income.

It is calculated by the formula:

where Bt is the benefits of the project in year t

Ct - project costs in year t

t = 1 . n - project life years

The investor should give preference only to those projects for which the NPV is positive. A negative value indicates the inefficiency of the use of funds: the rate of return is less than necessary.

profitability index.

The profitability index (PI) shows the relative profitability of the project, or the discounted value of cash receipts from the project per unit of investment. It is calculated by dividing the net present value of the project by the cost of the initial investment:

where NPV - net present cash flows of the project;

Co - initial costs.

The internal rate of return is the indicator at which NPV=0. At this point, the discounted cost stream equals the discounted benefit stream. It has the specific economic meaning of the discounted "break-even point" and is called the internal rate of return, or, for short, IRR.

Efficiency assessment for the project of creating a store of industrial goods LLC "Stil" was made on the basis of integral indicators reflecting the economic efficiency that is planned to be achieved as a result of its implementation. The discount factor (discount rate) adopted in the calculation of project efficiency is 0.15 (15%).

An analysis of the economic efficiency of the project shows that the project is particularly sensitive to changes in the selling price. If the price is only 20% lower than expected, then the project will enter a loss zone already in a typical production period. So the break-even analysis allows you to conclude that the biggest risk associated with the price.

The project is not as sensitive in terms of intended sales, as well as fixed and variable costs. The volume of demand may be a quarter less than planned, until the project enters the zone of losses. Variable costs may be 20% higher than expected, and fixed costs higher by 30%.

Thus, the liquidity of the project is ensured, i.e. cumulative net cash flow during the entire planned phase is not negative.

To understand which enterprise is more profitable to invest in, you need to compare existing projects. Since plans for different types of business can differ greatly both in volume and in characteristics, specific data are needed, expressed in numbers, independent of the type of activity of the enterprise and its scale - performance indicators.

Types of indicators

criteria by which to compare different types business, quite a lot. They differ in focus and assessment methods. To determine the social and economic significance, indicators such as the number of new jobs, the size of the average wages, the amount of taxes deducted to the budget.

For manufacturing enterprises an assessment of the impact on the ecology of the region is carried out. An analysis is also made of the enterprise's susceptibility to various adverse factors.

Financial indicators

But first you need to define financial efficiency. It is she who will make it possible to draw a conclusion about the profitability and safety of investing funds and, as a result, decide whether to be an enterprise or not.

AND , decisive questions financing a new venture, first look at indicators such as the ratio of own and borrowed money the payback period of the project. Based on these data, an initial conclusion is made whether it is worth considering the enterprise as an investment object at all.

Ideally, the project should contain a section in which such financial indicators of the business plan as the break-even point, profitability, net present value and others are calculated.

Input data

Cost items that do not depend on production volumes are classified as fixed costs. For example, monthly rent for premises, equipment, mandatory loan payments, salaries for permanent employees.

Variable costs are the costs of purchasing goods, raw materials, fuel, wages of employees. At zero value of variable costs, production stops.

Breakeven point

How many products need to be produced and sold so that all expenses are covered by revenue from revenue, shows the break-even point. It is expressed in units of production or in monetary terms. When this value is exceeded, the company begins to make a profit. The lower this indicator, the more competitive the production.

To calculate the break-even point, you need to write an equation in which fixed costs are equal to gross profit (the cost of a unit of production, taking into account variable costs), multiplied by the desired amount of production:

C \u003d nx (C-P),

where C - fixed costs,

n is the number of products,

C - the cost of a unit of production,

P is the cost per unit of production.

Obviously, the break-even point will be equal to:

n=C/C-P

Multiplying this value by the cost of a unit of production, we get the indicator in monetary terms. Another name for the break-even point is the profitability threshold.

Profitability

The main indicators of the business plan include the concept of profitability. This is the most general characteristic, it shows the ratio of the profit received to the amount of funds invested in the business. Expressed as a percentage, it can be calculated for an arbitrary period, usually a month, quarter and year.

The total profitability of production is calculated by the formula:

P \u003d P / (OF + OS) x 100%

where R - profitability,

P - the amount of profit,

OF and OS - the cost of working capital and fixed assets, respectively.

To see if a certain type of product is profitable, you can calculate its profitability ratio:

Rp \u003d (P / Sp) x 100%,

where Sp - total cost products,

P - the profit received from its implementation.

Margin of financial strength

Knowing where the threshold of profitability is, you can calculate the next performance indicator - the margin of financial strength. It determines the level to which the reduction in production will break even.

To find it, we subtract the sales volume at the break-even point from the current production volume. The higher this value, the more stable the enterprise.

Net present value

Another basic indicator of the project is the net present value, which is used to calculate other values. Before calculating it, let's define the concepts of cash flow and discount rate.

Cash flow

Cash Flows (CF) or cash flow is the most important concept of modern financial analysis, means the amount of money that the company has in this moment time. It can have both positive and negative values. To find it, you need to subtract the outflow (Cash Outflows) from the inflow of funds (Cash Inflows):

CF=CI-CO.

Discount rate

Over time, the value of money changes, and more often in a smaller direction. Therefore, in order to assess future cash flows a variable value is used, which depends on many factors - the discount rate. With its help, the investor reassesses the value of future capital at the current moment. There are several methods for calculating the discount rate: which one to choose depends on the type of task.

The success of an enterprise can be ensured if all available resources are directed towards a single goal and used with maximum effect. This is largely facilitated by the development and implementation of a business plan for the enterprise. The business plan is a program for the effective management of an enterprise, aimed at increasing its competitiveness and sustainable financial position. The business plan forms and justifies the goals of the enterprise, determines the ways to achieve them, the funds necessary for the implementation and final financial indicators. The business plan of the enterprise is a comprehensive an organization development plan for a certain period and, along with reporting financial documents, serves as the main document of production activity. A business plan is developed to substantiate current and long-term planning for the development of an enterprise, the development (selection) of new activities.

A business plan can be drawn up for a period of 3-5 years: for the first (current) year with a detailed consideration of the economic activity of the enterprise in the next 12 months and on an enlarged basis for the subsequent period.

Such a plan includes a description of the enterprise, its potential, an assessment of the internal and external environment in the business and time, specific data on the marketing strategy and business development. It notes the possibility of risks, i.e. it is shown that their existence is taken into account in the plan and measures are planned to reduce them.

Drawing up a business plan should be preceded by an analysis of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise, the market and feasibility studies of various alternatives for the development of the enterprise based on generally recognized standards. A business plan helps to solve the following main tasks of the enterprise:

determine specific areas of activity of the enterprise, markets, and the place of the enterprise in these markets;

formulate long-term and short-term goals of the enterprise, strategy and tactics;

determine the composition and indicators of goods and the costs of their creation and sale;

to identify the correspondence of the existing personnel of the company and the conditions for motivating their work;

evaluate the financial position of the firm and assess the consistency of existing financial and material resources opportunities to achieve the set goals;

foresee the difficulties that may arise and interfere with the practical implementation of the business plan.

acts as a means of self-organization, the basis of corporate planning.

In a market economy, all enterprises develop business plans. Enterprises operating in a stable situation and producing products for a sufficiently stable market with an increase in production develop a business plan aimed at improving entrepreneurship and finding ways to reduce its costs. However, all these enterprises constantly provide for measures to modernize their products.

Enterprises that manufacture products at constant risk systematically work on a business plan in order to master new types of products, switch to new generations of products.

If an enterprise does not have sufficient own capacities to carry out the planned increase in production, then it can go by attracting investments, or by searching for partners, which also requires a business plan.

A business plan helps to coordinate the activities of partner firms associated with cooperation and the manufacture of one or more complementary products. A business plan also helps in finding investors, creditors, as well as in making decisions on expanding enterprises.

A business plan is the main document for the financial recovery of insolvent enterprises.

With the help of the Business Plan:

developing a strategy for the survival of the enterprise

a plan for carrying out reorganization measures is being drawn up

organization of enterprise management in a crisis

substantiates the need and possibility of providing the enterprise with state support

At present, the development of a business plan is useful for all Belarusian enterprises, since most of them are experiencing financial difficulties or are developing sales markets. A business plan is a document focused on achieving success mainly in the financial and economic field. The content and structure of the business plan of the enterprise are not strictly regulated, and unlike the plan of production and economic activity, it can contain an arbitrary number of sections, different content, content.

Enterprises independently determine the structure and volume of sections of the business plan, but the following main factors must be taken into account:

features of the applied technology features of the market

features of competitiveness and novelty of the product (services) degree of elaboration of certain issues

Whatever the structure of the business plan, it will always contain fundamental sections, such as marketing, production, finance.

Similarly to the business plan of an investment project, the business plan of an enterprise can be developed on the basis of the Methodological Recommendations for the development of business plans for investment projects. At the same time, a number of ministries and departments provide their own Regulations and recommendations for their subordinate organizations. Thus, in the republic there are industry recommendations for the development of business plans for organizations of the Ministry of Industry. The sectoral recommendations are intended to ensure methodological and methodological unity in the development of short-term (annual) development forecasts for all organizations of the Ministry's system. country complex.

assessment of the current state of organizations with the allocation of patterns and trends in its development

substantiation of goals and objectives, the most important directions of economic development

determination of external and internal factors and conditions for effective development

setting specific parameters and priority areas for the development of organizations

The purpose of writing a business plan, in accordance with the Industry Guidelines, is to help the management of the organization form the most complete picture of the organization's position and opportunities for its development.

The business plan of organizations of the Ministry of Industry should contain a summary and sections of the main plan:

characteristics of the organization and its development strategy

marketing strategy

production forecasting

product quality management

production capacity

forecasting scientific and technological development

cost forecasting, cost and material consumption reduction

labor potential

forecasting financial and economic activities

restructuring

investment plan

calculation of the effectiveness of a business plan

determination of macro- and micro-level measures that ensure the achievement of goals and objectives

To evaluate the effectiveness of a business plan, a complex system of indicators is used, including:

the main financial indicators of the organization's work (volume of products sold, production cost, profit, number of employees, wage fund, fixed assets)

qualitative indicators characterizing the efficiency of production due to the intensive activity of the enterprise (profitability, costs per 1 ruble of sold products, material consumption, capital productivity, productivity)

indicators characterizing the financial strength of the enterprise, its liquidity (current liquidity ratio, equity ratio, capital turnover, solvency recovery ratio).

Business plans of organizations of the Ministry of Industry of the Republic of Belarus are subject to examination and evaluation in its sectoral and functional departments. If there are comments identified during the examination and consideration of the business plan, the document is returned for revision and re-submission. 36 The effectiveness of investment business plans is characterized by a system of indicators reflecting the ratio of costs and results in relation to the interests of the participants. According to the categories of participants, there are indicators:

commercial (financial) efficiency, taking into account the financial implications of the project implementation for its direct participants;

budget efficiency reflecting the financial implications of the project implementation for the republican and/or local budget;

economic efficiency, taking into account the costs and results associated with the implementation of the project, which go beyond the direct financial interests of the participants in the investment project and allow for cost measurement.

In addition, in the process of developing a project, its social and environmental consequences are assessed. For enterprises that solve the problems of maintaining or strengthening their positions in the market environment and focusing on maximizing profits, commercial efficiency is of paramount importance. The main indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects are: net present value ( NPV); yield index (ID); internal rate of return (IRR); payback period.

The investment appraisal is based on a comparison of the expected net profit from the project implementation with the capital invested in the project. The method is based on the calculation of net cash flow, defined as the difference between cash inflow from operating (production) and investment activities and their outflow, as well as minus financing costs (interest on long-term loans). Based on the net cash flow and the discount factor, which brings the future cash flows and outflows at step t to the initial period of time, the main investment valuation indicators are calculated: net present value (NPV); yield index (ID); internal rate of return (IRR); payback period.

Net present value characterizes the integral effect of the project implementation and is defined as the value obtained by discounting (at a constant interest rate separately from each year) the difference between all annual outflows and inflows of real money accumulated over the project calculation horizon:

The net present value shows the absolute value of the profit given at the beginning of the project implementation and must have a positive value, otherwise the investment project cannot be considered effective.

Internal rate of return (IRR)

An integral indicator calculated by finding the discount rate at which the cost of future receipts is equal to the cost of investments (NPV=0).

If the project is carried out at the expense of borrowed funds, then the IRR characterizes the maximum percentage at which it is possible to take a loan in order to pay off the proceeds from the sale.

Given the investor's rate of return on invested funds, investments are justified if the GNI is equal to or exceeds the established figure. This indicator also characterizes the "margin of safety" of the project, expressed as the difference between the IRR and the discount rate (in percentage terms).

Profitability index(yield) (IR):

Investment projects are effective with IR greater than 1.

The payback period serves to determine the degree of risk of project implementation and the liquidity of investments. There are simple payback periods and dynamic ones. The simple payback period of a project is the period of time after which the net income (income) covers the amount of investment (expenses) in the project, and corresponds to the period in which the cumulative value of the net cash flow changes from negative to positive. Calculation of the dynamic payback period of the project is based on the cumulative discounted net cash flow. The discounted payback period, unlike the simple one, takes into account the cost of capital and shows the real payback period.

Simple and dynamic payback periods of state support measures are determined by analogy with the calculation of the payback period of the project.

The expected effectiveness of the project is characterized by the financial plan. A financial plan, as well as a marketing, production and organizational plan, is an important part of a business plan. It identifies the potential investment that the business needs and shows if the business plan is economically feasible. This information determines the investment needs and forms the basis for determining the potential future value of the investment made. Therefore, before preparing a business plan, the manager must have a complete assessment of the profitability of the enterprise. Such an assessment first of all shows potential investors whether the business will be profitable, how much money is needed to start the business and cover short-term financial needs, how this money can be obtained (ie shares, loans, etc.).

The structure of the "Financial Plan" section of the Business Plan is shown in Figure 1.2.

It can be seen from the figure that, first of all, the possible revenue from the sale of products is planned for the established production volumes and product prices. Then direct material costs are calculated: consumption, price and total costs for the item. After that, the cost price and full production costs are planned.

Next, fixed assets are calculated, normalized current assets, including inventories, work in progress, shipment frequency and cost. finished products, loans to buyers and advances to suppliers, cash reserve. Then normalized current liabilities are planned, including accounts payable, customer advances, settlements with personnel, settlements with the budget by types of taxes. Based on the above plans, the full investment costs, sources of financing, including sources of equity and necessary loans, are calculated, the income statement, cash flow statement, balance sheet and key project performance indicators are developed.

Figure 1.2 Structural scheme section "Financial plan" of the Business plan

Having calculated a variant of the business plan, it is necessary to evaluate its acceptability in terms of the acceptability of the results obtained. If the values ​​of any indicators do not suit the enterprise, it is necessary to revise the plans, in particular, try to increase revenue by increasing volumes and prices if possible, reduce costs, and reduce variable and fixed costs.

decline fixed costs is an obvious choice, but it is difficult to achieve. The maximum part of fixed costs is the cost of wages for non-production personnel and employees, depreciation, payments for electricity, gas, water, telephone, advertising, interest on loans, etc. However, it is difficult or impractical to save on these articles (for example, on advertising).

As for prices and variable costs, you need to strive to reduce the latter, as a rule, the enterprise has a very small reserve for reducing labor and material costs. Thus, the most likely opportunity for change is to increase the selling price. At the same time, it is necessary to resolve the question: how much can the prices of individual goods sold in some specific markets be increased without this having a negative impact on the level of demand in these markets. The implementation of these measures leads to a decrease in the break-even level and, accordingly, to an increase in profits.

And if this level is more acceptable for the enterprise, it is included in the business plan. If not, then the calculation process should be continued until a satisfactory level of prices, costs, production volumes and profits is found. In addition, it is possible to revise normalized current assets and normalized short-term liabilities in order to reduce the amount of working capital required, to reconsider the need for the acquisition of this or that equipment, know-how and costs for these activities, etc., until acceptable financial results are obtained.

To assess the feasibility of business plans, there are three areas of financial information: expected sales and expenditures over at least the next three years, cash flows (cash flow analysis) over the next three years, the balance for the current period, and projected balances for the next three years.

The financial statements and forecasts are short description(in monetary terms) past performance and future plans of the organization. Because this is the case, both types of financial documents must match the textual description of the business, its plans, and the assumptions on which those plans are based. Financial statements must be supported by relevant documents and explanations.

Management should summarize projected sales volumes and related costs over a period of at least three to five years, with a monthly forecast for the first year. This should include projected revenue (sales volume), cost of goods sold, general and administrative expenses (general production). The net income after taxes can then be predicted using an income tax estimate.

The determination of expected sales volumes and expenditure amounts for the first 12 months (by months) and for each subsequent year is based on the market information discussed earlier. Each item of expenditure must be determined and presented monthly for the year.

The second important area of ​​financial information is cash flow over three to five years, with a monthly forecast for the first year. Cash flow estimates show the ability of a business to meet expenses in a timely manner throughout the year. The cash flow forecast should determine the initial cash requirements, the expected amounts of receivables and other receipts, as well as all payments for each month throughout the year.

Since bills must be paid in different dates during the year, it is important to determine monthly cash requirements, especially during the first year. Since sales can be uneven and payments from customers can also be dispersed over time, a short-term loan becomes necessary to cover fixed costs such as salaries and utilities.

The final element of the financial information provided in this section of the business plan is the projected balance sheets. They show the financial condition of the business at a certain moment, give a summary of the assets of the enterprise, its liabilities (how much they owe), the investments of the owners and some partners, as well as the amount of retained earnings (or accumulated losses). The potential investor should be shown all the assumptions on which the balance sheets and other parts of the financial plan are drawn up.

The following key indicators are used to calculate the effectiveness of investment projects:

Ø net income (NV or NV - Net Value);

Ш net present value (NPV or NРV - Net Present Value);

Ш internal rate of return (IRR or IRR - Internal Rate of Return);

Ш index of profitability of discounted investments (ID or PI - Profitability Index);

Ш payback period: simple payback period (PP - Payback Period) and discounted payback period (DPP - Discounted Payback Period);

Ш group of indicators characterizing the financial condition of the participant of the investment project.

Net income is the cumulative effect (cash flow balance) for the billing period (1.1).

where Ф t is the cash balance at the t-th calculation step.

The net income indicator does not take into account the time factor, namely the value of funds depending on the points in time when their outflows and inflows occur, i.e. the opportunity to receive income from alternative investments, in other words, the lost profit from these investments, is not taken into account.

This factor is taken into account by the indicator of net present value. Net present value (integral effect) is the accumulated discounted effect for the billing period (1.2).

where is the discount factor;

E is the discount rate in fractions of a unit.

In expanded form, NPV can be written as follows (1.3):

where P t - cash inflow at the t-th calculation step;

З t - cash outflow at the t-th calculation step.

NPV and NPV are absolute indicators characterizing the excess of total cash receipts over total costs for a given project, respectively, without taking into account and taking into account the inequality of effects (as well as costs and results) related to different points in time.

The BH-BDD difference is called project discount.

It is believed that in order to recognize the project as effective from the point of view of the investor, it is necessary that the NPV of the project be positive. When comparing alternative projects, preference should be given to the project with the highest NPV. However, these conditions are insufficient for making decisions on project financing. Detailed explanations will be provided in the next paragraph of this chapter.

Internal rate of return (internal discount rate, internal rate of return) - E ext - this is the discount rate at which NPV zero. In other words, if NPV is calculated at a given discount rate, then IRR is the desired discount rate and is calculated using formula (1.4):

where the left side of the formula is the discounted cash flow, which excludes investment costs, and the right side is the discounted investment for the entire calculation period.

Figure 1.3 shows a graph of the NPV of a classic investment project, reflecting its value at different discount rates.

Figure 1.3 Graph of the NPV of a classic investment project

The GNI indicator can be used:

for financial and economic evaluation of project decisions, if acceptable GNI values ​​​​for projects are known of this type;

· to assess the degree of sustainability of the investment project by the difference E vn - E. The greater the difference between these values, the more sustainable the project is considered.

At the same time, in the calculations of NPV and GNI, it is necessary:

Ш use moderately pessimistic forecasts of technical and economic parameters of the project;

Ш provide for reserves of funds for unforeseen investment and operating expenses.

Profitability indices are relative indicators that characterize the "return of the project" on the funds invested in it. They can be calculated for both discounted and undiscounted cash flows.

The index of return on costs is the ratio of the amount of cash inflows (accumulated receipts) to the amount of cash outflows (accumulated payments).

The discounted cost return index is the ratio of the sum of discounted cash inflows to the sum of discounted cash outflows.

Investment return index (IR) - the ratio of the sum of cash flow elements from operating activities to the absolute value of the sum of cash flow elements from investment activities.

Discounted investment yield index (DII) is the ratio of the sum of discounted cash flow elements from operating activities to the absolute value of the discounted sum of cash flow elements from investment activities (1.5).

where Ф t * - cash flow from operating activities at the t-th step;

I t - investments at the t-th calculation step.

The higher the value of IDI, the higher the return on each ruble invested in the project.

The payback period indicator is one of the most common in the world accounting and analytical practice. The algorithm for calculating the simple payback period (RR) depends on the uniformity of the distribution of projected income from investments. If the income is evenly distributed over the calculation steps, then the payback period is calculated by dividing the amount of investment by the amount of net income due to them at each calculation step (i.e., annual, quarterly or monthly). In this case, income includes depreciation of fixed assets in which investments were made. Upon receipt fractional number it is rounded up to the nearest integer. However, this calculation does not take into account the length of the investment period.

If the profit is not evenly distributed, then the payback period is equal to the number of years (months) from the beginning of the investment, during which the net income (including depreciation) becomes and then remains positive. But this calculation, like the previous one, does not take into account changes in the value of money over time. Therefore, the most objective value of the payback period can be calculated using the discounting method.

The discounted payback period (DRR) is the period of time from the beginning of the investment, beyond which the current net present value becomes and remains positive in the future.

In practice, many investors start evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects with the calculation of the RRR, since it characterizes the rate of return on invested funds.

Therefore, if the investor is not satisfied with the value of this indicator, then the calculation of other indicators does not make sense for him.

However, none of the above indicators taken separately can objectively characterize the effectiveness of the project. It is the totality of the considered indicators that allows us to evaluate various aspects of the effectiveness of an investment project and make an appropriate decision.

An important point in evaluating the effectiveness of the project is its impact on the financial position of the enterprise where it is implemented and any of the investors who participate in it. The assessment of the financial position of an enterprise is based on the data of its reporting balances and other financial documents. The following is a short list of summarizing financial indicators, divided into four groups, that are commonly used for such an assessment. They are subject to comparison. base values and predicted taking into account the implementation of the project and without it.

1. Liquidity ratios (used to assess the ability of an enterprise to fulfill its short-term obligations:

· coverage ratio of short-term liabilities (current liquidity ratio) - the ratio of current assets to current liabilities. Satisfactory financial position of the enterprise corresponds to the values ​​of this indicator, exceeding 1.6-2.0;

· intermediate liquidity ratio - the ratio of current assets without the value of inventories to current liabilities. Satisfactory financial position of the enterprise correspond to the values ​​of this coefficient, exceeding 1.0-1.2;

absolute liquidity ratio - the ratio of highly liquid assets ( cash, securities and accounts receivable) to current liabilities. The value of this indicator is considered satisfactory in the range of 0.8-1.0.

2. Solvency indicators (used to assess the ability of an enterprise to fulfill its long-term obligations):

· coefficient financial stability- the ratio of the enterprise's own funds and subsidies to borrowed funds. This ratio is usually analyzed by banks when deciding whether to provide a long-term loan;

· solvency ratio (debt ratio) - the ratio of borrowed funds (the total amount of long-term and short-term debt) to own;

· coefficient of long-term attraction of borrowed funds - the ratio of long-term debt to the total volume of capitalized funds (the sum of own funds and long-term loans);

Long-term liabilities coverage ratio - the ratio of the net increase in available funds (the sum of net profit after tax, depreciation and net increase in own and borrowed funds minus investments made in the reporting period) to the amount of payments on long-term obligations (repayment of loans + interest on them).

3. Turnover ratios (used to assess the effectiveness of operating activities and policies in the field of prices, sales and purchases):

· asset turnover ratio (turnover ratio) - the ratio of sales proceeds to the average value of assets for the period;

· turnover ratio of own capital - the ratio of proceeds from sales to the average value of equity capital for the period;

Inventory turnover ratio - the ratio of sales proceeds to the average value of inventories over the period;

· receivable turnover ratio - the ratio of proceeds from sales on credit to the average for the period of receivables. Sometimes, instead of this indicator, the average period of turnover of receivables is used, calculated as the ratio of the number of days in the reporting period to the turnover ratio of receivables;

· average payable turnover period (average payable period) - the ratio of short-term accounts payable (accounts payable) to the cost of purchasing goods and services, multiplied by the number of days in the reporting period.

4. Profitability indicators (the "date of assessment of the current profitability of the enterprise - IP participant" is used):

· profitability of sales - the ratio of balance sheet profit to the amount of proceeds from the sale of products and from non-sales operations; I

· return on assets - the ratio of balance sheet profit to the value of assets (residual value of fixed assets + value of current assets).

At different options funding schemes (eg. different conditions lending) the balance sheet profit at the same step may turn out to be different, respectively, both indicators of profitability will also differ. In order to ensure comparability of calculations in these cases, indicators can be used complete profitability (sales and assets), in the calculation of which the balance sheet profit increases by the amount of interest paid on the loan, included in the cost, i.e.:

· full return on sales - the ratio of the amount of gross profit from operating activities and included in the cost, interest paid on loans to the amount of proceeds from the sale of products and from non-sales operations;

· full return on assets - the ratio of the amount of gross profit from operating activities and included in the cost, paid interest on loans to the average value of assets for the period. These indicators (full profitability of sales and assets) depend to a lesser extent on the financing scheme of the project and to a greater extent are determined by its technical and technological solutions;

· net profit sales - the ratio of net profit (after taxes) from operating activities to the amount of proceeds from the sale of products and from non-sales transactions. Sometimes defined as the ratio of net income to cost of goods sold;

· net return on assets - the ratio of net profit to the average value of assets for the period;

· net profitability of own capital (return of equity, ROE) - the ratio of net profit to the average cost of equity over the period.

This list can be supplemented at the request of individual project participants or financial structures, as well as in connection with the introduction government bodies new or changes in existing criteria for initiating the bankruptcy proceedings of an enterprise.

The values ​​of the corresponding indicators should be analyzed in dynamics and compared with the indicators of similar enterprises. Each project participant, as well as lending banks and lessors, may have their own idea of ​​the marginal values ​​of these indicators, indicating an unfavorable financial position of the company. However, in any case, these limit values ​​significantly depend on the production technology and the structure of prices for manufactured products and consumed resources. Therefore, it is not always advisable to use the prevailing at the time of calculation ideas about the marginal levels of financial indicators to assess the financial position of an enterprise over a long period of investment project implementation.

3. EVALUATION OF THE EFFICIENCY OF THE BUSINESS PLAN

In order to make a final decision on the implementation of this project, it is necessary to evaluate its economic efficiency. The economic efficiency of the project is the effectiveness economic activity, determined by the ratio of the obtained economic effect (result) to the costs that led to the receipt of this effect.

The economic efficiency of the project is evaluated during the calculation period, covering the time interval from the beginning of the project to its implementation. The beginning of the billing period is recommended to be defined as the start date of investing in the project.

The main indicators used to calculate the economic efficiency of an investment project are:

1) РВ (Payback Рeriod) - the payback period of the project;

2) DPB (Discounted payback period) - discounted payback period;

3) ARR (Average rate of return) - average rate of return;

4) NPV (Net Present Value) - net present value;

5) IRR (Internal Rate of Return) - internal rate of return

6) PI (Profitability Index) - return on investment;

Consider the methodology for calculating these indicators.

1. Payback period of the project:

The payback period is the time required to cover the initial investment from the net cash flow generated by the investment project.

Calculation of the indicator:

PB - payback period.

In order for the project to be accepted, it is necessary that the payback period be less than the duration of the project.

RW = 3,000,000: ((3,903,618 + 5,657,417 + 7,835,731) : 36)) = 3,000,000: 483,243.50 = 6.2

As we can see from the calculation, the payback period of the project is 6 months. It is during this period that the initial investment in the amount of 3 million rubles will pay off.

The term of the project is 36 months, respectively, the payback of the project is guaranteed, which allows us to draw conclusions about the attractiveness of this project.

However, the implementation of the business plan is carried out in time (within 3 years), therefore, an annual discount rate of 20% is set. To determine the payback of the project, taking into account the discount rate, we need to calculate the discounted payback period.

The discounted payback period is calculated similarly to the simple payback period, however, when summing the net cash flow, it is discounted.

Calculation of the indicator:

where Investments - initial investment;

CFt - net cash flow of the month;

r - annual discount rate;

DPB - discounted payback period.

DPB = 3000000: ((3903618: (1+0.20) + 5657417: (1+0.2)+7835731: (1+0.2) / 36) = 3000000: ((3253015+3928762+4534567) / 36) = 3000000: 325454 = 9.2

As you can see from the calculation, the discounted payback period of the project is 9 months, which is 2 months more than the simple payback period, however, the discounted payback period of the project is also less than the total project period (36 months), respectively, the project has economic feasibility.

Another indicator that determines the economic efficiency of the project is the average rate of return.

The average rate of return represents the profitability of the project as the ratio between the average annual income from its implementation and the value of the initial investment.

Calculation of the indicator:

where Investments - initial investment

CFt - net cash flow of the project

N - duration of the project (in years);

ARR is the average rate of return.

ARR = (3903618+5657417+7835731): (3 * 3000000) = 17396766: 9000000 = =1.93

Received an average rate of return equal to 193%. This indicator determines the rate of return for each invested ruble. As we see in our project, the enterprise (investor) receives 93% of the return on investment in the project. The resulting rate is very high, which allows us to conclude that this project is highly profitable and not only a quick payback, but also further effective work in this area of ​​trade.

Since funds are distributed over time, the time factor also plays an important role here.

When evaluating investment projects, the net present income calculation method is used, which provides for cash flow discounting: all income and expenses are given to one point in time.

The central indicator in this method is the NPV (Net Present Value) indicator of net present value - the present value of cash flows minus the present value of cash outflows. This is the generalized end result of investment activity in absolute measurement.

With a one-time investment, the calculation of net present value can be represented by the following expression:

where R k - annual cash receipts for n years, k = 1, 2, ..., n;

IC - initial investment;

i – discount rate;

NPV is net present value.

An important point is the choice of the discount rate, which should reflect the expected average level of loan interest in the financial market. To determine the effectiveness of an investment project, the weighted average price of capital used by an enterprise to finance this investment project is used as a discount rate. In our case, the net present value is:

NPV = (3903618/ (1+0.2) + 5657417/ (1+0.2) + 7835731/(1+0.2)) - 3000000= 3253015+ 3928762+4534567-3000000=8 716 344

The NPV indicator is an absolute increase, since it estimates how much the reduced income covers the reduced costs:

· if NPV > 0, the project should be accepted;

at NPV< 0 проект не принимается,

· with NPV = 0, the project has neither profit nor loss.

Based on these calculations, we can conclude that the NPV of the project is greater than 0, that is, the reduced income covers total amount reduced costs and in absolute terms amounted to + 8,716,344 rubles.

It should be noted that the NPV indicator reflects the predictive assessment of changes in the economic potential of the enterprise in the event of the adoption of this project. One of important properties of this criterion that the NPV various projects can be summarized because it is additive in time. This allows you to use it in the analysis of the optimality of the investment portfolio.

To further determine the feasibility of our project, we calculate the internal profitability of the project. Under the Internal return (rate of return on investment - IRR) understand the value of the discount rate at which the NPV of the project is zero.

The meaning of calculating this ratio when analyzing the effectiveness of planned investments is as follows: IRR shows the maximum allowable relative level of expenses that can be associated with a given project. For example, if the project is financed entirely by a loan from a commercial bank, then the IRR value indicates the upper bound acceptable level banking interest rate, exceeding which makes the project unprofitable.

In practice, any enterprise finances its activities, including investment, from various sources. As a payment for the use of financial resources advanced into the activities of the enterprise, it pays interest, dividends, remuneration, etc., i.e. incurs some reasonable costs to maintain its economic potential.

An indicator that characterizes the relative level of these costs can be called the "price" of advanced capital (CC).

Let's determine the rate of return on investment of our project. To do this, two values ​​of the discount factor r1

,

where r1 is the value of the tabulated discount factor for which f(r1)>0 (f(r1)<0);

r2 - the value of the tabulated discount factor at which f(r2)<О (f(r2)>0)

Table 34

Discount rate calculation

Discount rate (r)
0,1	11 111 395,55
0,2	8 716 343,36
0,3	6 916 926,50
0,4	5 530 322,92
0,5	4 438 517,63
0,6	3 562 710,03
0,7	2 848 727,03
0,8	2 258 368,30
0,9	1 764 088,68
1	1 345 629,63

Fig.1. net present value

For calculation, we take the values ​​r1 = 0.2 r2=0.7

IRR= 0.2+(8716343.36/(8716343.36-2848727.03))* (0.7-0.2)=0.2+0.74=0.94 or 94%.

where Investments - initial investment;

CFt - net cash flow of the month;

IRR - internal rate of return.

(3903618/(1+0,94)+5657417/(1+0,94)+7835731/(1+0,94)-3000000 = 0

4589154,48-3000000 >0

In essence, IRR characterizes the expected profitability of the project. If the IRR exceeds the price of capital used to finance the project, this means that after paying for the use of capital, there will be a surplus that goes to the enterprise. In a project, the IRR exceeds the price of capital, and therefore, the adoption of a project in which the IRR is greater than the price of capital increases the well-being of the enterprise. So, if:

IRR > CC. then the project should be accepted;

IRR< CC, то проект следует отвергнуть;

IRR = CC, then the project is neither profitable nor unprofitable.

According to the project's calculations, IRR >CC, therefore, the project should be accepted.

The final stage of evaluating the effectiveness of the project is the determination of the Profitability Index (PI). The Profitability Index (PI) is calculated by the formula:

PI= ((3903618/(1+0.2) + 5657417/(1+0.2)+ 7835731/(1+0.2))/3000000=

11716344/3000000 = 3,9

It's obvious that this project has a high profitability index of 3.9, since the normative data for PI\u003e 1, then the project should be accepted;

PI< 1, то проект следует отвергнуть;

PI = 1, then the project is neither profitable nor unprofitable.

Unlike the net present effect, the profitability index is a relative indicator. Due to this, it is very convenient when choosing one project from a number of alternative ones that have approximately same values NPV, or when completing an investment portfolio with the maximum total NPV value.

Consequently, the calculation of the profitability index also confirms not only the economic feasibility of the project, but also significant economic benefits for investors in this enterprise.

We summarize all the calculations in table 3.1

Table 3.1

Calculation of performance indicators

Indicator	Designation	Received value
Payback period	PB	6 months
Discounted payback period	DPB	9 months
Average rate of return	ARR	1,93
net present value	NPV	We also recommend Switching power supply: repair and refinement Remote control of light Swimming lessons for preschool children Notes for the master - home household alarms Clock propeller on Atmega8 Device and relay application examples, how to choose and connect a relay correctly Microcontroller and relay simple switching circuits Loading...