Ice Age: Europe will freeze, Russia will survive. The Gulf Stream changed direction

The Gulf Stream has stopped: fact or fiction?
Av.Olga Skidan
Date:May 28, 2013

In 2010, the world community was shocked by the news that a new Ice Age could begin in the near future. Italian physicist Gianluigi Zangari, associate National Institute nuclear physics Frascati, made a sensational statement: "The Gulf Stream has stopped!"
The scientist came to such conclusions by analyzing the observational data obtained from satellites for atmospheric and oceanic phenomena in the Gulf of Mexico.

According to an Italian scientist, the Gulf Stream stopped as a result of a large-scale environmental tragedy in this area. For several months, British Petroleum's Deepwater Horizon well has been leaking crude oil into the waters of the bay. In total, about two hundred million gallons of substance poured out, which formed a kind of "oil volcano" at the bottom. BP management and the US authorities tried to hide this fact by dumping two million gallons of Corexit solvent and a huge amount of other dispersants into the Gulf of Mexico to suppress hydrocarbons. It was not possible to neutralize the consequences of the disaster, it was only possible to hide the true extent of the damage - part of the bay was cleaned from the oil film, but it is impossible to remove oil from a great depth. And the most irreparable consequence of an oil leak is that the temperature, viscosity and salinity of sea water has changed, as a result of which the boundaries between the layers of cold and warm water, because of this, the undercurrents slowed down, and in some places the Gulf Stream stopped altogether. All this prompted Zangari to make such a statement.

What is Gulfstream? This is the main warm current of the Earth, which forms weather in areas adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean. He does Scandinavian countries habitable and maintains a warm climate in European countries. And if the Gulf Stream has stopped, then we are waiting for the onset of the Ice Age. First of all, England and Ireland, the northern states of America and Canada will be covered with ice, then a sharp cooling will cover North America, Europe and Asia. People will be forced to move to more warm places. Cold, migration, crop failure and, as a result, famine will lead to the extinction of about two-thirds of all mankind.

In 2010, the scientist did not believe in the self-healing of the current, as he suspected that the oil leak was continuing. But after some time, satellite images were received that did not confirm the fact that the Gulf Stream had stopped. Photographs from outer space showed that the North Atlantic Current was again carrying its warm waters along its usual route.

So what, the world's global catastrophe is cancelled? There is no definite answer to this question. Scientists say that the Gulf Stream stopped temporarily for several days, a similar situation was already in 2004, and no negative consequences for the Earth then did not follow. But supporters of the global conspiracy theory argue that all images of the Gulf of Mexico received from satellites after 2010 are fake. The climate is changing, but gradually, because the waters of the Gulf Stream have not yet cooled completely, and there are several years before the global cooling.

The Gulf Stream

AT Western Europe, as well as on the east coast of the United States, the climate is quite mild. So on the coast of Florida, the average water temperature is very rarely below 22 ° Celsius. This is during the winter months. In summer, the air heats up to 36°-39° Celsius with humidity reaching 100%. Such temperature regime extends far to the east and north. It covers the states: Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas, Kentucky, Georgia, Louisiana, and North and South Carolina.

All these administrative formations lie in the region of a humid subtropical climate, where the summer average daily temperature does not fall below 25 ° Celsius, and in the winter months it drops to 0 ° Celsius very rarely.

If we take Western Europe, then the Iberian, Apennine and Balkan Peninsulas, as well as the entire southern part France are located in the subtropical zone. The summer temperature in it fluctuates between 26°-28° Celsius. AT winter period these figures drop to 2°-5° Celsius, but almost never reach 0°.

In Scandinavia, the average winter temperature ranges from minus 4° to 2° Celsius. In the summer months it rises to 8°-14°. That is, even in the northern regions, the climate is quite acceptable and suitable for comfortable living.

The Gulf Stream
This temperature grace takes place in a vast region for a reason. It is directly connected with the Gulf Stream ocean current. It is he who forms the climate and gives people the opportunity to enjoy warm weather almost all year round.

The Gulf Stream is a whole system of warm currents in the northern part of Atlantic Ocean. Its total length covers a distance of 10 thousand kilometers from the sultry coast of Florida to the ice-covered islands of Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya. Huge masses of water begin their movement in the Strait of Florida. Their volume reaches 25 million cubic meters per second.

The Gulf Stream moves slowly and majestically along the east coast North America and crosses 40° N. sh. Near the island of Newfoundland, it meets the Labrador Current. The latter carries cold waters to the south and causes warm water flows to turn east.

After such a collision, the Gulf Stream splits into two currents. One rushes north and turns into the North Atlantic Current. It is this that forms the climate in Western Europe. The remaining mass reaches the coast of Spain and turns south. Off the coast of Africa, it meets the North Tradewind Current and deviates west, ending its journey in the Sargasso Sea, from which it is within easy reach of the Gulf of Mexico. Then the cycle of huge masses of water is repeated.

This has been going on for thousands of years. Sometimes a mighty warm current weakens, slows down, reduces heat transfer, and then cold falls to the ground. An example of this is the Little Ice Age. Europeans observed it in the XIV-XIX centuries. Every heat-loving inhabitant of Europe has experienced on his own skin what a real frosty snowy winter is.

True, before that, in the VIII-XIII centuries, there was a noticeable warming. In other words, the Gulf Stream was gaining strength and giving back very a large number of heat to the atmosphere. Accordingly, on the lands of the European continent, the weather was very warm, and snowy cold winters have not been observed for centuries.

Today, the mighty warm currents of water also affect the climate as they did in former times. Nothing has changed under the sun and the laws of nature have remained the same. That's just a man in his technical progress stepped very far. His relentless activity triggered the Greenhouse Effect.

The result was the melting of the ice of Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. Huge masses fresh water rushed into the salty waters and rushed south. Today, this situation is already beginning to affect the mighty warm current. Some experts predict that the Gulf Stream will soon stop, as it will not be able to cope with the influx of alien waters. This will entail a sharp cooling in Western Europe and on the east coast of North America.

The situation was aggravated biggest accident in the Tiber oil field in the Gulf of Mexico. Under water in the bowels of the earth, geologists have found huge reserves of oil, estimated at 1.8 billion tons. Experts drilled a well, the depth of which was 10,680 meters. Of these, 1259 meters were in the ocean water column. In April 2010, a fire broke out on an oil platform. It blazed for two days and claimed the lives of 11 people. But it was, though tragic, but a prelude to what happened after that.

The burnt platform sank, and from the well to open ocean oil began to leak. According to official sources, 700 tons of oil per day entered the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. However, independent experts named a different figure - 13.5 thousand tons per day.

The oil film, huge in its area, fettered the movement of Atlantic waters, and this, accordingly, began to negatively affect heat transfer. Hence there was a violation in the circulation of the air currents of the Atlantic. They no longer had the strength to move east and form the usual mild climate there.

The result was a terrible heat wave in Eastern Europe in the summer of 2010, when the air temperature rose to 45° Celsius. provoked a similar wind out North Africa. They, not meeting any resistance on their way, brought a hot and dry cyclone to the north. He hovered over a vast territory and stayed above it for almost two months, destroying all life.

At the same time, terrible floods shook Western Europe, as the heavy, moisture-filled clouds coming from the Atlantic did not have enough strength to break through the dry and hot front. They were forced to dump tons of water on the ground. All this provoked a sharp rise in the level of rivers and, as a result, various catastrophes and human tragedies.

What are the immediate prospects, and what awaits old Europe in the near future? Experts say that cardinal climate change will begin to be felt as early as 2015. Western Europe is waiting for a cooling and rising sea levels. This will provoke the impoverishment of the middle class, as it cash invested in real estate, which will plummet in value.

This will create political and social tensions in all sectors of society. The consequences of this can be the most tragic. It is simply impossible to predict something specific, since there are many scenarios for the development of events. One thing is clear: hard times are coming.

The current of the Gulf Stream, today, thanks to global warming and the catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico, has practically closed in a ring and does not provide sufficient thermal energy to the North Atlantic Current. Accordingly, the air flow is disturbed. Over the European territory, completely different winds begin to dominate. The usual climatic balance is disturbed - this is already noticeable with a simple eye.

In such a situation, anyone can feel a sense of anxiety and hopelessness. Of course, not for the fate of hundreds of millions of people, since this is too vague and unclear, but for the specific fate of their relatives and friends. But to despair, and even more so to panic, is premature. How it will actually be - no one knows.

The future is full of surprises. It is entirely possible that global warming is not global warming at all. This is a normal rise in temperatures within the climate cycle. Its duration is 60 years. That is, for six decades the temperature on the planet has been steadily increasing, and for the next 60 years it is slowly decreasing. The beginning of the last cycle dates back to the end of 1979. It turns out that half of the way has already been passed and only 30 years are left to endure.

The Gulf Stream is too powerful a stream of water to simply change direction or disappear like that. There may be some failures and deviations, but they will never turn into global and irreversible processes. There are simply no prerequisites for this. At least not today.

Scientists have confirmed that the famous ocean current The Gulf Stream finally changed its direction.

Now it does not reach Svalbard, but turns towards Greenland, which contributes to warmer weather on the American continent, but "freezes" northern Siberia, writes NewsOboz.org with reference to the Russian Jew.

The shutdown of the Gulf Stream was first reported by Dr. Gianluigi Zangari, a theoretical physicist at the Frascati Institute in Italy, in a journal article on June 12, 2010. The article is based on satellite data from the Colorado Aerodynamic Research Center, coordinated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US Navy . The author pointed to the stoppage of the rotation of water flows in the Gulf of Mexico and the division of the Gulf Stream into parts. Subsequently, the images were changed on the server of the Colorado Center for Aerodynamic Research, and now it is difficult to say by whom and when.

How was the flow before

The colder and denser Labrador current “dipped” under the warm and lighter current of the Gulf Stream, without preventing it from heating Europe, reaching Murmansk. Then the Labrador Current “surfaced” off the coast of Spain under the name of the cold Canary Current, crossed the Atlantic, reached the Caribbean Sea, warmed up and, passing through a loop in the Gulf of Mexico, already under the name Gulf Stream rushed unhindered back to the North.

The Gulf Stream was part of the thermohaline circulation system, a key element in the planet's thermal regulation. It separated England and Ireland from becoming a glacier. Smoothed out the climate in the Scandinavian countries.

After Dr. Zangari's report, the Canadian Parliament set up a commission to find out the real state of affairs with the Gulf Stream near the coast of the state. It was headed by well-known US oceanologist Ronald Rabbit, a technologist for processing the biomass of the oceans and improving environment. A special dye that does not harm the flora and fauna of the ocean was poured into containers exploding at a certain depth and, thus, tracked the flows of the movement of water masses. The Gulf Stream as an existing current was not discovered.

But, as it turned out, the self-regulating system called the Earth “worked” this time as well. According to research, the current “creeped” 800 miles (1481 kilometers) east of the former Gulf Stream zone. According to satellite images, the temperature of this current has increased relative to the Gulf Stream. This means that the evaporation rate has increased in the warm zone above the ocean.

A small digression: the majority of people believe that moist air is heavier than dry air, but this is not so. Molecules of oxygen O2, carbon dioxide CO2 and nitrogen N2 are heavier than water molecules H2O.

What brings us such a change

Presumably very cold to -45 degrees and little snowy winter in the European part of Russia, Western Europe will be covered with snow, and hurricane winds will rage on the border of the fronts. In mid-February 2011, instead of frost, spring came in Canada with a temperature of +10. America, apparently, will not be left without a "carrot" either. Recent cold weather in Montana, South Dakota, Texas, Arkansas and Tennessee is proof of this.

Gulf Stream This is a "river" with warm water that moved across the Atlantic Ocean, reached Murmansk and warmed Europe with its heat, while protecting it from polar winds.

The Gulf Stream has stopped, and it acts as a temperature regulator of our planet. He does not allow Europe to freeze, and Scandinavia to turn into a glacial world. Due to recent events, everything has changed. Now the thermohaline circulation system is gradually dying and will soon completely disappear.

Explosion in the Gulf of Mexico

The culprit of the tragedy was the British Petroleum (BP) oil company, where in April last year, an explosion occurred on the Deepwater Horizon oil platform located in the Gulf of Mexico as a result of negligence. The consequences were simply terrible. Within five months, the damaged Macondo well was leaking oil out of control, totaling about 4.9 million barrels.

The damage done to the Atlantic Ocean was simply colossal. Billions of dollars were required to eliminate the consequences of the accident. Having calculated the amount of expenses to be spent on the elimination of the accident and the payment of a federal fine (depending on the extent of pollution), the company's management (BP) turned to Barack Obama with a request to reduce the area of ​​the polluted ocean by sinking oil to the bottom.

The Obama Administration (BP) granted the request, resulting in about 2 million gallons of Corexit being poured into the Atlantic Ocean, as well as several million gallons of other dispersants, in addition to the huge amount of already spilled crude oil. When asked by journalists about how such a measure would affect the ecology of the planet, management (BP) said that everything would be in order, and there was no reason to panic.

Scientists did not take the word of the leadership of British Petroleum and conducted a very simple experiment that clearly showed what is actually happening in the Atlantic Ocean. During the experiment, a conventional bath with cold water. By giving color to the warm jets of water, one could see the boundaries of the cold layers and warm jets. When the oil was added to the bath, the boundaries of the warm water layers were broken and the current vortex was effectively destroyed. This experiment showed the principle of action of Corexit, which in this moment slowly killing the Gulfstream.

Before dispersants were added to the water, the causes of the disaster could be eliminated, of course, a lot of money and time had to be spent on this, but now there is no way to do this, since at the moment there is not one efficient technology cleansing the bottom of the bay. Moreover, oil has already reached the east coast of America and then flowed into the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean, where there are no prospects and opportunities for raising it to the surface and cleaning the ocean floor.

The Gulf Stream has stopped

First reported stop Gulfstream Dr. Gianluigi Zangari, theoretical physicist at the Frascati Institute in Italy. He has been monitoring changes in the Gulf of Mexico for several years. All of his observations are based on Colorado's CCAR satellite photographs approved by the US Navy's NOAA.

Since the publication of his paper on irreversible changes in warm ocean water currents, all photographs and maps received from CCAR have been edited on the server serving the satellite.

Dr. Zangari is confident that the scale of pollution will only increase over time, as oil has the ability to expand, and this in turn will entail even more serious consequences for the coming environmental catastrophe.

The Gulf of Mexico conveyor went out of business this fall, the latest satellite data clearly show that the Gulf Stream is now gone, starting to break apart and die about 250 kilometers east of the coast of North Carolina, with the width of the Atlantic Ocean at that latitude exceeds 5000 km.

The picture of the near future of ecology was clearly drawn by a Russian scientist, professor, author of two monographs and 130 publications in the field of physics, acoustics, geophysics, mathematics, physical chemistry, Economics Sergey Leonidovich Lopatnikov.

Impact of the Gulf Stream on climate

According to S. Lopatnikov, the abnormal heat that lasted all last summer in Moscow and middle lane Russia, as well as floods in central Europe and inappropriate cold in Germany and England, this is only the beginning of a changing climate system directly related to the Gulf Stream.

The thermohaline water system, in which warm waters flow over cooler waters, has a great impact not only on the ocean, but also on the upper atmosphere up to seven miles high. The absence of the Gulf Stream in the eastern part of the North Atlantic disrupts the normal course of atmospheric flows, which leads to natural disasters.

Based on these considerations, in the near future we will face drought, crop failures, famine, large migrations of people from uninhabitable areas, global cooling (the irony of fate - they were afraid of global warming, but waited for global cooling) and as a result of the ice age, which will first cover the territory of the Northern America and then gradually move to Europe and Asia.

During global icing, if the whole process proceeds quickly, 2/3 of humanity will die, and if the rate of seizure of territories by cold is not so active, then the same 2/3 will die only within a few years.

So. If we delve into at least the initial forecasts for the development of the future climate, then at a glance we can safely say the following:

• In the near future, an oil slick will appear on the surface of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic.
• Oil, artificially deposited on the bottom, will subsequently rise and become a layer between the layers of water.

The first of the above will entail two consequences:

1. The parameters of moisture evaporation will change, and the heat exchange between the water surface and the atmosphere will be disturbed (it is obvious that less evaporation occurs, and the evaporated liquid is warmer than normal).
2. The dynamics of heating and cooling of water masses, carried away by the currents formed in the Atlantic (including those in the Gulf of Mexico and near it), will change.

The second point above will lead to two more consequences:

1. Due to the oil in the middle layers of the water, it will lose its transparency and will create the effect of a giant lens due to which there will be a strong heating of the liquid itself and the air, inevitably leading to the death of fish, birds and animals.
2. The second adverse effect will be reflected in the change in the composition, color, viscosity, temperature and salinity of sea water in the Gulf of Mexico, and this will lead to a stop of the annular current. The consequences can only be guessed at.

global catastrophe

Completely new data have also been obtained, based on the study of satellite images and on accurate mathematical analysis by Dr. Zangari.

“Today, temperature measurements of the Gulf Stream between the 76th and 47th meridians show that it is 10 degrees Celsius colder than it was during the same period last year. Accordingly, we can talk about the presence of a direct causal relationship between the stop of the warm Annular Current in the Gulf of Mexico and the fall in the temperature of the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream has stopped.

One can only guess - who does Barack Obama think he is, taking such serious decisions alone, without consulting with other states? When we are talking about a global catastrophe, it is absolutely unacceptable to take into account any territorial principles.

What concerns more than one country cannot be decided by the government of that state. He not only made a decision that was detrimental to the planet, but is also an accomplice in a crime against humanity and the environment.

Update from 2014

According to the latest data, the Gulf Stream has completely disappeared. Tons of oil that fell into the ocean caused a mixture of different temperature currents and destroyed the Gulf Stream, which is the "stove of Europe." The warm and comfortable climate of Western Europe and America depended on it by 90 percent. Its waters carried 50 million m3 of warm water per second, and the power of the current was equivalent to 1 million nuclear power plants.

We can see the consequences of the global catastrophe even now. A series of floods, severe frosts and abnormal precipitation swept across the United States, Europe and Russia. AT summer periods Europe is flooded with cold torrential rains, and in America they cannot cope with abnormal heat and drought.

The warm current, once called the Gulf Stream, carried its waters to the northern latitudes, changing the local climate. In the future, this could turn into another global catastrophe for humanity. Large-scale melting of age-old glaciers.

But he will not think about such distant cataclysms, since we can simply not live up to them.

It took more than three months to contain the accident on the Deepwater Horizon oil platform, during which 800,000 cubic meters of oil spilled into the ocean. The maximum damage to the ecosystem of the Gulf of Mexico was inflicted in the early days. For several more months, the liquidators of the accident tried to scoop out the rapidly spreading oil slicks, but their attempts were in vain.

Giant oil lenses penetrated deep into the ocean, causing all life below them to die. Seeing that it was useless to fight the consequences of the accident with the old methods, the US government, together with the cabinet of directors of the British Petroleum company, took drastic measures by dumping tons of chemical reagents that precipitated oil to the bottom into the ocean. Further, for the destruction of oil, they decided to use the latest, specially created microorganisms for this purpose.

bacterium synthia

Since the late 1980s, American geneticists have been developing artificial microorganisms that feed on hydrocarbons and are capable of absorbing oil products, natural gas and coal.

As a result, in 2007, Synthetic Genomics Incorporated (Synthetic Genomics Inc.) patented its development. A completely artificial bacterium dubbed "Cynthia".

Geneticists managed to synthesize artificial DNA and place it in living cell, and then breed the offspring of this microorganism. The developers of Cynthia positioned their offspring as a means of dealing with oil spills, but some researchers are sure that this is a biological weapon, the side effect of which is eating oil. It was he who wanted to be used to eliminate the consequences of the accident.

At first, the synthias really absorbed oil products, but moving deep into the ocean, multiplying, creating their own colonies and mutating, the preferences of these bacteria changed dramatically. They abandoned oil and began to eat organic matter: algae, jellyfish, fish, animals and, in the end, people.

Already in 2011, it became clear that the synthias were no longer engaged in the destruction of oil spills, but multiplying, devouring all life in the ocean.

Some time later, frightening information appeared in the press that the inhabitants of the Mexican coast were struck by a certain virus, originally called the "Blue Flu".

Symptoms of blue flu appeared in people swimming in the Gulf of Mexico, and were expressed in the form of skin ulcers, internal bleeding and damage to the respiratory tract.

At first, the disease could be stopped with antibiotics, but the victims had severe damage to the skin and respiratory organs. Not knowing how to cope with the scourge, the doctors said that this was some new virus unknown to medicine, and they had no means of combating it.

Later it turned out that an unknown virus is carried by synthia, created in such a way that not a single antibiotic or chemical works on them. It can be said that they are practically invulnerable.

Why was it necessary to make bacteria created to eliminate oil pollution so resistant to suppression methods is not clear? It was here that many researchers started talking that this virus was created as a weapon, and it was tested in the Gulf of Mexico, but something went wrong, the virus mutated, and the antidote made to deactivate it did not work.

Whichever version is correct, it doesn't matter now. The inhabitants of the Mexican coast are dying by the hundreds from purulent wounds, and the reason for this is the synthia, which is still freely spreading through the waters of the world's oceans.

The US authorities are aware of the consequences of their carelessness, but at the same time they are holding back the wide-scale dissemination of scandalous information in every possible way. Having destroyed the Gulf Stream and destroyed the ecosystem of the Gulf of Mexico, the White House administration did not think it was enough, and they decided to further aggravate the problem by opening Pandora's box and releasing a deadly infection into the ocean, from which there is no salvation yet.

The upcoming winter promises to be the coldest ever. centennial history meteorological observations. Such a disappointing forecast was given unanimously by American and European weather forecasters. Paradoxically, this prediction is based on a general ... warming of the planetary climate.

An increase in temperature on the planet leads to a change in the wind rose. Northern and Central Europe and, to a much greater extent, Russia is not protected by natural barriers (ie mountains or warm seas) from the polar air. True, until recently, the western part of the continent had its own "stove" - ​​a warm current in the ocean, the Gulf Stream. However, over the past 20 years, from the point of view of some ocean hydrologists, the Gulf Stream has been deviating more and more south towards the Sahara. In addition, the flow rate slows down.

The relevant research was published back in 2015 by the journal Nature, according to the findings of scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Research on Climate Change and its Effects, led by professor of ocean physics Stefan Ramstorff. In 2010, a significant slowdown of the current allegedly occurred (confirmation is contained in the works of the Italian physicist Gian-Luigi Tsangari), which caused a terrible stir in European scientific circles. Note that Russian scientists do not support the conclusion of their Italian colleague, but they also note strong oceanic anomalies in the northern part of the Atlantic.

How the Gulf Stream distributes heat:

The fact is that without the Gulf Stream, real Siberian cold can reign in the European Union. Meanwhile, it is warming that is causing the melting of the Greenland glaciers and the ice cap of the North Pole. By the way, Antarctica also shows instability of the ice cover. All new cracks cut through many kilometers of ice on the southernmost continent of the Earth. Cubic kilometers of fresh water entering the ocean cold water change the density of ocean masses, the circulation of thermohaline (temperature-salty) water, lead to a change in currents, and, accordingly, the climate on the continents.

As a result, the Gulf Stream moves more and more to the south, and the influx of cold air from the poles intensifies into Russia and Europe. This has not happened to the Gulf Stream since about 900, that is, about 1100 years!

It is in this regard that scientists predict the return of at least the "Little Ice Age" on the European continent, which was last observed for several decades. In those years, the period of atmospheric cooling - presumably due to the slowdown of the Gulf Stream - coincided with a decrease in solar activity. Western Europeans were faced with a natural phenomenon now known to science as the "Maunder Minimum". In particular, we are talking about a long-term decrease in the number sunspots observed from 1645 to 1715.

This is what sun spots look like:

Even if the disappointing forecast is confirmed, for our country it could mean several weeks of frosts over 20 degrees with peak readings down to minus 30 and below. A natural phenomenon can be intensified by a strong cold wind, and for each meter per second one must count an additional degree of frost in subjective perception.

In principle, Russia was initially prepared for such cold weather: the population has the necessary warm clothes, and houses are designed for lower temperatures. Also, the laying of energy highways is carried out in accordance with the so-called SNiP norms (building codes and rules). According to these regulations, deep-laid networks (water supply, sewerage, drains) are laid at a depth exceeding 1.5 meters. The rolling stock of trains and equipment in general are able to function even with more low temperatures, since the operating standards are the same throughout the country. Recall that in the same Siberia, the thermometer normally drops to a low mark every winter.

Certain difficulties may arise for drivers - including personal vehicles - with a diesel engine, that is, running on diesel fuel. Despite any additives, after the thermometer drops to minus 25 degrees, diesel fuel thickens, and then completely turns into jelly. It is also extremely important to check the condition of car batteries that are rapidly discharged in the cold.

In turn, Western European neighbors may face a number of difficulties, since communications in Europe are actually laid on the surface, that is, above the freezing point. With a stable (and not peak for several hours) temperature drop below 10 degrees below zero, water supply may stop. No less problem can be expected by the population, which traditionally does not have a serious winter wardrobe.

Europeans are not used to cold weather (frame from winter Paris):

Finally, public transport in Western Europe is not ready for the cold, as it does not have the appropriate winter fuel or fuels and lubricants. Things are no better with snow removal equipment and reagents. So, for example, at Charles de Gaulle Airport (Paris), there is virtually no snow removal equipment.

Similar disasters have already happened in Europe several years ago, on the night of November 20-21, 2014, when, in particular, the Eurostar London-Paris-Brussels high-speed train was cut off in the snows of northern France. He stood on open space, not far from Lille for most of the night, and the cars were not supplied with heat and water, and there was nowhere for the 1300 passengers to go.

E. Volodin, Ph.D. Phys.-Math. Sciences.

Rumors persist about the weakening of the Gulf Stream, which is either due to an oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, or due to a strong melt arctic ice, and that it threatens us with unheard-of climatic catastrophes, up to the onset of a new ice age. Letters come to the editorial office with a request to clarify whether the warm current will really disappear soon. Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Evgeny Volodin, Leading Researcher at the Institute of Computational Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, answers questions from readers.

Rice. 1. Anomaly (deviation) of surface temperature in September-November 2010 compared to September-November 1970-2009. Data from NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA).

Rice. 2. Difference in ocean surface temperatures between June 2010 and June 2009. GODAS data.

Rice. 3. Difference in ocean surface temperatures in September-November 2010 and September-November 2009. GODAS data.

Rice. 4. Current velocities in June 2010 at a depth of 50 m, according to GODAS data. The arrows indicate the direction, the color - the magnitude of the speed (m / s).

The Gulf Stream is a warm current in the Gulf of Mexico that goes around Florida, flows along the east coast of the United States to about 37 degrees N. and then breaks away from the coast to the east. Similar trends exist in pacific ocean- Kuroshio, and in the Southern Hemisphere. The uniqueness of the Gulf Stream lies in the fact that after breaking away from the American coast, it does not turn back to the subtropics, but partially penetrates into high latitudes, where it is already called the North Atlantic Current. It is thanks to him that in the north of the Atlantic the temperature is 5-10 degrees higher than at similar latitudes in the Pacific Ocean or in the Southern Hemisphere. For the same reason, the Northern Hemisphere as a whole is slightly warmer than the Southern.

The root cause of this unusual North Atlantic is that the water over the Atlantic Ocean evaporates a little more than it falls in the form of precipitation. Over the Pacific, on the other hand, precipitation slightly outnumbers evaporation. Therefore, in the Atlantic, the water is on average somewhat saltier than in the Pacific Ocean, which means that it is heavier than the fresher Pacific Ocean, and therefore it tends to sink to the bottom. This is especially intense in the North Atlantic, where salt water is also made heavier by cooling on the surface. In place of the water that has sunk into the depths, water from the south comes to the North Atlantic, this is the North Atlantic Current.

Thus, the causes of the North Atlantic Current are global, and they are unlikely to be significantly affected by such a local event as the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. According to the most pessimistic estimates, the area of ​​the oil slick is one hundred thousand square kilometers, while the area of ​​the Atlantic Ocean is slightly less than one hundred million square kilometers (that is, a thousand times larger than the slick). According to the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA) atmospheric reanalysis data - synthesized data from satellites, ground-based observation stations, soundings, "assimilated" by the atmospheric dynamics model (atmospheric model of NCEP's Global Forecast System - GFS), with the warm currents of the North Atlantic, there is nothing to worry about until it happened. Take a look at the map compiled from this data (Figure 1). In September-November 2010, the deviation of surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as in that part of the Atlantic where the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current pass, from the average value in the same months of 1970-2009 does not exceed one degree Celsius. Only in the northwest of the Atlantic, in the region of the cold Labrador Current, do these anomalies reach two or three degrees. But such a magnitude of seasonal anomalies is quite common and is observed in a particular region almost every year.

Reports that the Gulf Stream between the 76th and 47th meridians in 2010 became colder by 10 degrees Celsius are not confirmed either. According to GODAS data (Global Ocean Data Assimilation System - a system for assimilation of all available observational data - satellites, ships, buoys, etc. - using an ocean dynamics model), the average ocean surface temperature in June 2010 is between about 40 and degrees W.L. was lower than in June 2009, by only one or two degrees, and only in one place - by almost three degrees (Fig. 2). But such temperature anomalies are quite within the framework of natural variability. Usually they are accompanied by "deviations" of a different sign in neighboring areas of the ocean, which happened in the summer of 2010, according to GODAS data. So if they are averaged over the entire North Atlantic, then the average temperature deviation was close to zero. In addition, such phenomena usually live for several months, and in autumn the negative anomaly was no longer traced (Fig. 3).

The existence of the Gulf Stream is also well confirmed by GODAS data on horizontal current velocities at a depth of 50 m, averaged over June 2010. A map compiled from this data (Figure 4) shows that the Gulf Stream, as always, flows through the Gulf of Mexico, around Florida and along the east coast of the United States. Then it breaks away from the shore, becomes wider, at the same time the speed of the current drops (as it should), that is, nothing unusual can be traced. Approximately the same, according to GODAS, the Gulf Stream flows in other months of 2010. Note that 50 m is the most characteristic depth at which the Gulf Stream is best seen. For example, surface currents may differ from those at a depth of 50 m, most often due to the influence of wind.

However, there have been cases in history when events occurred similar to those described in the “horror stories” that are now widespread. The last such event occurred about 14,000 years ago. Then the ice age ended, and in North America, a huge lake was formed from the melted ice, dammed by a glacier that had not yet melted. But the ice continued to melt, and at some point the water from the lake began to flow into the North Atlantic, freshening it and thereby preventing the water from sinking and the North Atlantic Current. As a result, it became noticeably colder in Europe, especially in winter. But then, according to existing estimates, the impact on the climate system was huge, because the flow of fresh water was about 10 6 m 3 /s. This is more than an order of magnitude higher than, for example, the current runoff of all Russian rivers.

Another important point, which we would like to emphasize: the average seasonal anomalies of atmospheric circulation in temperate latitudes depend to a very small extent on the anomalies of ocean surface temperature, including such large anomalies as were observed this summer in European Russia. Specialists in seasonal weather forecasting argue that only 10-30% of the deviations from the “norm” of the average seasonal temperature at any point in Russia are due to anomalies in ocean surface temperature, and the remaining 70-90% are the result of natural variability of the atmosphere, the root cause of which is unequal heating high and low latitudes and it is almost impossible to predict which for a period of more than two or three weeks (see also "Science and Life" No. 12, 2010).

That is why it is wrong to consider the observed weather anomalies in Europe in the summer of 2010 or in any other season as the result of only the influence of the ocean. If this were the case, seasonal or monthly weather deviations from the "norm" would be easily predicted, since large anomalies in ocean temperature, as a rule, are inertial and live for at least several months. But so far, no forecasting center in the world has been able to make a good seasonal weather forecast.

Speaking specifically about the causes of the anomaly in the summer of 2010 in Russia, it was caused by the interaction of two randomly coinciding factors: a blocking anticyclone, which caused air to be transported to the central regions of Russia mainly from the east-southeast, and soil drought in the Volga and Ural regions, which allowed the propagating air not to waste heat on the evaporation of water from the surface. As a result, the increase in air temperature near the surface turned out to be truly unprecedented for the entire observation period. However, the probability of occurrence of a blocking anticyclone and soil drought in the Volga region depends little on anomalies in ocean surface temperature, including in the Gulf Stream region.