Satisfaction of national interests takes place within the framework of the processes of interaction between states in the international arena, as well as various social forces within them. These processes are in the nature of confrontation and cooperation, which in general allows us to consider them as a kind of struggle for existence. The latter causes direct and indirect competition between states and forces them to take into account each other's interests in one way or another. In the economic sphere, this competition is in the nature of competition, and in non-economic spheres, it is in the nature of a military-political and cultural-informational confrontation. The forms and direction of such confrontation and cooperation are determined by national interests. Since the resources allocated for development differ only partially for states, the clash of their interests is permanent.

It is these clashes in the course of satisfying national interests that give rise to threats to national security. Threat to national security is a danger determined by activities that impede the satisfaction of national interests.

On the one hand, the threat to national security is inextricably linked with this or that. If there is no national interest, there is no threat. Outside the system of national interests, a threat is just a danger. The threat to national security is considered in the context of various dangers, the ability to cause any harm, misfortune, accompanying human activity in general. Hazards, unlike threats, can be generated not only by social forces, but also by natural phenomena, natural disasters and man-made disasters.

On the other hand, a threat as an encroachment on the national interest and the intention to cause harm is always associated with the purposeful activity of some opposing social force - specific subjects pursuing their own interests, which act as a source of threat.

• affected national interests of the country, which reflects its importance;
• circumstances (own vulnerability - the degree of protection of the given threat), which determines the potential damage when the threat is realized;
• place and time of manifestation of negative factors and conditions;
• capabilities, intentions and will of the subject of the threat (potential adversary or competitor).

The last two points determine the likelihood of a threat being realized.

Thus, national security threat- direct or indirect possibility of damaging constitutional rights, freedoms, decent quality and standard of living of citizens, sovereignty and territorial integrity, sustainable development of the Russian Federation, defense and security of the state.

The nature of the threat determined by the nature of the interest that the threat counteracts. Therefore, they distinguish threats of an economic, military, informational, environmental and other nature(Fig. 1).

By type distinguish:

Direct threat. This is a threat posed by the targeted, deliberate activity of an entity that is viewed as a competitor, adversary, or enemy.

indirect threat. This is a threat caused by destructive changes in market conditions, or unpredictable political events that destroy the existing systems of economic and political interaction, or their inability to respond to a crisis.

Depending on where the threat comes from. those. where in relation to the state border there is a source of threat, there are also external, internal and transnational(not country-specific) threats.

From the point of view of the “broad” interpretation of security, threats are divided into the following types: actor-centric and trend-centric. What these threats have in common is that the former are often, and the latter almost always, transnational in nature.

In the strategic planning systems of states, threats are usually divided into potential and immediate. The first ones are usually considered those that have the following features:

• pose an immediate danger to the national interest within the relevant planning period;
• expressed as a certain trend in the development of the situation (for example, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the world or the deterioration of the economic situation);
• do not require immediate response.

Signs of immediate threats are as follows:

• represent a clear danger to national interests at the current moment;
• are expressed as a specific event (for example, an attack on an ally country, hostage-taking, etc.);
• require immediate protective action.

Rice. 1. Classification of national security threats

Potential threats are usually taken into account when developing various plans and programs. Immediate threats require the immediate activation of the operational planning system in crisis situations for specific response measures. As a rule, sources of immediate threats are potential.

The manifestation of threat sources can be cumulative both in various areas of achieving national goals and in geographical areas (regions), this involves considering threats not only by their sources, both external and internal, but also by the forms and likelihood of implementation, as well as the expected damage. This makes it possible to identify risks for the tasks of national development to be solved in order to take proactive measures to neutralize threats. In this case, the spectrum of threats is formed by the following forms.

Traditional forms of threat implementation associated mainly with the use of the armed forces of states in well-studied forms of hostilities or conflicts. In addition, these threats are also associated with the use of various kinds of economic instruments. At the same time, the economic possibilities of the source of the threat are realized not so much to improve their own economic position in the world economy, but to inflict damage on their competitors by economic methods. The manifestation of such threats is expressed in the violation of the existing balances of power in various areas of activity or geographical (strategic) areas. which constrains the freedom of action of the state in a particular region of the world, increasing the risks of achieving national goals.

Non-traditional forms of implementation of threats associated with the use by states and non-state actors of unconventional methods against adversaries who are superior in their capabilities. These include terrorism, insurgency, civil wars. These approaches can be combined with information campaigns and actions, as well as attempts to deliberately disrupt the financial and credit sphere of the country through speculative attacks. Sometimes non-traditional forms of threat implementation are called asymmetric.

Forms of implementation of catastrophic threats associated with the use of weapons of mass destruction. This category of threats should also include activities to destroy key national infrastructure facilities that can cause catastrophic environmental and/or social consequences. The sources of such threats can be both individual states, seeking in this way to ensure their security or raise their international status, and various non-state actors seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruction and even use them (by analogy with the use of chemical weapons by the Aum-Shinrikyo sect in the Tokyo subway in 1995) to gain international attention or achieve other goals.

Disruptive forms of implementation of threats come from opponents who develop, possess and use breakthrough technologies that make it possible to neutralize the advantages of the enemy in the relevant areas. Of key importance in this context is played by information methods of disorganizing the activities of state and military control systems and correcting the political activity of the masses in the necessary direction.

It should be noted that, just like interests, threats are recognized and "felt" by specific carriers of interests. There is always a difference between reality and awareness. So threats can also be overestimated, underestimated and even imaginary, i.e. far-fetched.

Internal and external threats to national economic security

In the process of creation and maintenance, key causes arise that can violate it, threats. The main threats are defined in the National Security Concept of the Russian Federation, approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of December 17, 1997 No. 1300 (as amended by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of January 10, 2000 No. 24). In accordance with it, threats are divided into internal and external in relation to the location of the causes of their occurrence - outside the national economy and inside it.

Internal threats to Russia's national security

The main internal threats to national economic security are:

Strengthening the degree of differentiation of living standards and incomes of the population. The formation of a small group of the wealthy population (oligarchs) and a large part of the poor population creates a situation of social tension in society, which can ultimately lead to serious socio-economic shocks. This creates a number of problems in society - the total uncertainty of the population, its psychological discomfort, the formation of large criminal structures, drug addiction, alcoholism, organized crime, prostitution;

Deformation. The orientation of the economy towards the extraction of minerals creates serious structural shifts. The decline in competitiveness and the total curtailment of production stimulates an increase in unemployment and reduces the quality of life of the population. The resource orientation of the national economy makes it possible to receive high income, but in no way ensures sustainable economic growth;

Strengthening uneven economic development of regions. This kind of situation lays the problem of breaking the single economic space. A sharp difference in the level of socio-economic development of the regions destroys the existing ties between them and hinders inter-regional integration;

Criminalization of Russian society. In society, the tendencies to receive unearned income through direct robbery and seizure of property have sharply increased, which negatively affects the overall stability and stability of the national economy. Of great importance is the total penetration of criminal structures into the state apparatus and industry and the emerging trend of merging between them. Many entrepreneurs refuse legal methods of resolving disputes among themselves, avoiding free competition, and increasingly resorting to the help of criminal structures. All this has a negative impact on the general economic situation and prevents the national economy from recovering from the crisis;

A sharp decline in the scientific and technical potential of Russia. The basis of economic growth - the scientific and technical potential - has been practically lost over the past decade, due to a reduction in investment in priority scientific and technical research and development, the mass exodus of leading scientists from the country, the destruction of science-intensive industries, and the strengthening of scientific and technical dependence. The future development of the economy belongs to science-intensive industries, for the creation of which Russia today does not have sufficient scientific potential. Accordingly, it is questioned whether Russia's place in the world economy;

Strengthening isolation and striving for independence of the subjects of the Federation. Russia has significant territories that function within the framework of a federal structure. The manifestation of separatist aspirations by the subjects of the Federation is a real threat to the territorial integrity of Russia and the existence of a single legal, political and economic space;

Strengthening interethnic and interethnic tensions, which creates real conditions for the emergence of internal conflicts on ethnic grounds. It is broadcast by a number of public associations whose interests do not include the preservation of the cultural and national integrity of Russia;

Widespread violation of the single legal space, leading to legal nihilism and non-compliance with the law;

Decreased physical health of the population, leading to degradation due to the crisis of the health care system. As a result, there is a steady trend towards a reduction in the birth rate and life expectancy of the population. The decline in human potential makes economic growth and industrial development impossible;

demographic crisis, associated with a steady trend of the predominance of the general mortality of the population over the birth rate. The catastrophic decline in the number of population poses the problem of the population of the territory of Russia and the retention of its existing borders.

Taken together, internal threats to national security are closely intertwined and interrelated. Their elimination is necessary not only to create the proper level of national security, but also to preserve Russian statehood. Along with internal, there are also external threats to national security.

External Threats to Russia's National Security

Main external threats to national security are:

• a decrease in the role of Russia in the world economy due to the targeted actions of individual states and interstate associations, such as the UN, the OSCE;
• reduction of economic and political influence on the processes taking place in the world economy;
• strengthening the scope and influence of international military and political associations, including NATO;
• emerging trends towards the deployment of military forces of foreign states near the borders of Russia;
• the worldwide proliferation of weapons of mass destruction;
• the weakening of the processes of integration and the establishment of economic ties between Russia and the CIS countries;
• creation of conditions for the formation and emergence of military armed conflicts near the state borders of Russia and the CIS countries;
• territorial expansion in relation to Russia, for example, from Japan and China;
• international terrorism;
• weakening of Russia's position in the field of information and telecommunications. This is manifested in the reduction of Russia's influence on international information flows and the development by a number of states of information expansion technologies that can be applied to Russia;
• the activation of the activities of foreign organizations engaged in intelligence and the collection of strategic information on the territory of Russia;
• a sharp decrease in the military and defense potential of the country, which does not allow it, if necessary, to repel a military attack, which is associated with a systemic crisis in the country's defense complex.

Ensuring national security at a sufficient level makes it necessary to constantly monitor external and internal threats, and therefore their list is constantly changing depending on specific political, social, legal and economic conditions.

Adopted in 1997 and amended in 2000, the National Security Concept of the Russian Federation is not a simple declaration. It is an effective legal document that regulates the priority area of ​​the state's activity - national security. Only starting from 2003, it began to be implemented after the necessary potential had been accumulated. The introduction of a system for appointing senior officials of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation minimized the threat to the territorial integrity of Russia. The recent ban on the activities of foundations with foreign capital in Russia has reduced the degree of its political and economic dependence. Now we are witnessing a process when the accumulated potential of state power has begun to implement the Concept of National Security adopted in 1997, albeit not in all areas effective and efficient.

Stages of national security threat

Threats to national security in the public mind and, in particular, in the minds of the political leadership of the country, go through several stages: awareness of the threat - reaction to a perceived threat - response to the threat.

Threat Awareness

Firstly, the property of an object or phenomenon "to pose a threat", obviously, does not have its inherent character, but is very conditional. What, from the point of view of one scale of values, is considered a “threat”, from the standpoint of a different assessment, may turn out to be, on the contrary, an “opportunity”. It is difficult to talk about “threats” without reference to a certain system of values. Secondly, a threat is perceived as such only as long as it looks sufficiently probable. In general, any threat is perceived by the human consciousness "integrally" - as a certain sum of the subjectively assessed probability of the threat and the degree of possible damage. Moreover, the perception of the threat is purely individual and is reflected in the concept of “degree of threat”. The degree of threat is the integral perception of the threat in the individual or public consciousness. Even a deadly but unlikely threat can be perceived as "low" and of little concern to those who should be concerned. At the same time, a threat that is quite probable, but not serious in nature, can completely divert attention to itself. Therefore, the response to threats to national interests may differ significantly from what a person's subconscious suggests. However, even if the threats are almost improbable, in practice the political leadership has to proceed from their possibility in order to ensure that what should not happen does not really happen.

In this regard, the main problem of preventing and countering any threat is the gap between the principles of rational perception and combating threats and the "innate", often irrational, reaction of society to threats (or lack thereof). Influencing the sphere of politics, "general human" and purely national features of the perception of threats lead to the deviation of politicians' actions from the model of "rational behavior". In these cases, the effectiveness of the national security system is reduced.

In practice, a threat can be recognized by society only if it is “real” in the eyes of society, i.e. society estimates the probability of its implementation quite high. As the degree of probability of a threat decreases, the task of preventing it falls off the public agenda. A low degree of expectation of a threat, weakening the natural defenses of society, obviously contributes to the realization of the threat. The society that least expects a threat is the one most exposed to it. So, for example, a war for which the country is “well prepared” usually does not happen. But others happen.

Response to a perceived threat

In the political sphere, it is generally impossible to assess the likelihood of a particular threat “objectively” (here the events are extremely heterogeneous). Therefore, any assessment of the likelihood of a threat can have an exclusively practical, pragmatic meaning. In fact, even when they talk about probability, they mean the integral assessment of the “degree of threat”. In the realm of politics, a “high degree” of threat means a high possible harm, given the practical means and the possibility of allocating funds to prevent it. Deviation from this principle of assessment will lead to a decrease in the effectiveness of the fight against threats, either due to an incorrect assessment of damage, or due to an incorrect assessment of one's capabilities. At the same time, the assessment of "damage" from the threat directly depends on the system of values ​​(national traditions, strategic culture). The latter is able to answer the questions: “What is good and what is bad?”, “What is “acquisition” and what is “loss?”. Without a certain system of values, it is incorrect to speak of an effective fight against threats.

Response to the threat

It is mediated by national and cultural characteristics. Thus, a close assessment of the degree of threat in different countries does not yet mean the same response to it and, in general, any active action. Different nations have a completely different degree of "tolerance" of threats (threshold of perception). The higher the degree of tolerance, the higher the danger must be in order for the society/state to react to it. For example, there is a strong opinion that Russians are distinguished by a high degree of tolerance for dangers and threats. Compared to Russians, Americans, on the contrary, are distinguished by an unusually low tolerance for threats: even a small threat to their well-being can cause a hysterical, often disproportionate reaction to the degree of threat.

Thus, the threat to national security limits the freedom of choice for each individual, and for the country - the freedom of action in one area or another. This is manifested in the fact that when achieving national goals, the threat violates the chosen ratio of means (resources) and methods, exerts negative, primarily psychological, pressure on the decision-making system, the system of public administration. This increases the risks of achieving national goals. That is, a threat is what requires the activation of the national security system.

Today, there are several types of threats to the national security of the Russian Federation: external, internal and cross-border. External threats include the deployment of groupings of armed forces and assets near the borders of the Russian Federation and its allies, territorial claims against the Russian Federation, threats of secession of certain territories from the Russian Federation; interference in the internal affairs of R.F. from foreign countries; buildup of troop groupings leading to disruption of the existing balance of forces near the borders of the Russian Federation; armed provocations, including attacks on Russian military installations located on the territory of foreign states, as well as on objects and structures on the State Border of the Russian Federation and the borders of its allies; actions that impede Russia's access to strategically important transport communications; discrimination, non-observance of the rights, freedoms and legitimate interests of citizens of the Russian Federation in some foreign states

The main external threats to national security are:

• · reduction of Russia's role in the world economy due to purposeful actions of individual states and interstate associations, such as the UN, the OSCE;
• · reduction of economic and political influence on the processes taking place in the world economy;
• · Strengthening the scope and influence of international military and political associations, including NATO;
• · emerging trends towards the deployment of military forces of foreign states near the borders of Russia;
• · ubiquitous distribution in the world of weapons of mass destruction;
• · the weakening of the processes of integration and the establishment of economic ties between Russia and the CIS countries;
• · creating conditions for the formation and emergence of military armed conflicts near the state borders of Russia and the CIS countries;
• · territorial expansion in relation to Russia, for example, from Japan and China;
• international terrorism;
• · weakening of Russia's position in the field of information and telecommunications. This is manifested in the reduction of Russia's influence on international information flows and the development by a number of states of information expansion technologies that can be applied to Russia;
• · a sharp decrease in the military and defense potential of the country, which does not allow it to repel a military attack, if necessary, which is associated with a systemic crisis in the country's defense complex.
• · intensifying the activities of foreign organizations engaged in intelligence and collection of strategic information on the territory of Russia;

Experts refer to internal threats as follows: attempts to forcibly change the constitutional order and violate the territorial integrity of Russia; planning, preparation and implementation of actions to disrupt and disrupt the functioning of public authorities and administration, attacks on state, economic and military facilities, life support facilities and information infrastructure; creation, equipping, training and activities of illegal armed formations; illegal distribution of weapons, ammunition and explosives on the territory of the Russian Federation; large-scale organized crime activities that threaten political stability in some regions of the Russian Federation. Activities of separatist and radical religious national movements.

The main internal threats to national economic security are:

• · Strengthening the degree of differentiation of living standards and incomes of the population. The formation of a small group of the wealthy population (oligarchs) and a large part of the poor population creates a situation of social tension in society, which can ultimately lead to serious socio-economic shocks;
• · Deformation of the sectoral structure of the national economy. The orientation of the economy towards the extraction of minerals creates serious structural shifts;
• · Increased uneven economic development of the regions. A sharp difference in the level of socio-economic development of the regions destroys the existing ties between them and hinders inter-regional integration;
• · Criminalization of the Russian society. In society, the tendencies to receive unearned income through direct robbery and seizure of property have sharply increased, which negatively affects the overall stability and stability of the national economy. Of great importance is the total penetration of criminal structures into the state apparatus and industry and the emerging trend of merging between them;
• · A sharp decline in the scientific and technical potential of Russia. The basis of economic growth - the scientific and technological potential - has been practically lost over the past decade, due to a reduction in investment in priority scientific and technical research and development, the mass exodus of leading scientists from the country, the destruction of science-intensive industries, and the strengthening of scientific and technical dependence;
• · Strengthening the isolation and desire for independence of the subjects of the Federation. Russia has significant territories that function within the framework of a federal structure;
• · Increased interethnic and interethnic tension, which creates real conditions for the emergence of internal conflicts on ethnic grounds;
• · Widespread violation of the single legal space, leading to legal nihilism and non-compliance with the law;
• · Declining physical health of the population, leading to degradation due to the crisis of the health care system;
• · Demographic crisis associated with a steady trend of prevalence of general mortality over the birth rate.

Taken together, internal threats to national security are closely intertwined and interrelated.

The environmental situation in the world is characterized by negative trends. Its characteristic features are the depletion of natural resources, the periodic occurrence of extensive zones of environmental disasters and catastrophes, and the degradation of renewable natural resources. Most countries are characterized by the use of environmentally imperfect technologies in industry, agriculture, energy, and transport. A real threat to Russia's interests is the tendency to use its territory for the disposal of hazardous waste from the chemical and nuclear industries of the developed countries of Europe.

There are growing negative trends in the global social sphere. There is an increase in the proportion of patients, the disabled, people suffering from hunger and malnutrition, the use of poor-quality water. The proportion of the illiterate and unemployed remains high (according to the official unemployment rate, Russia is still among the most prosperous countries, ranking approximately 7th in the world). However, according to the classification of the International Labor Organization in Russia, there are more than 5 million unemployed. Approximately the same number work part-time or are on forced leave, the level of material support of the population is declining. Migration processes are expanding to alarming proportions. Indicators of physical and mental development of people are deteriorating.

The threat to the physical health of the nation is manifested in the crisis state of health care systems and social protection of the population. There is widespread alcoholization of the population. The consumption of recorded and unrecorded alcohol per capita in terms of pure alcohol is from 11 to 14 liters, then the situation is assessed as dangerous at an indicator of 8 liters.

Cross-border threats are manifested in the following:

• · Creation, equipment and training on the territory of other states of armed formations and groups for the purpose of their transfer for operations on the territory of Russia;
• · The activities of subversive separatist, national or religious extremist groups supported from abroad, aimed at undermining the constitutional order of Russia, creating a threat to its territorial integrity and the security of its citizens. Cross-border crime, including smuggling and other illegal activities on an alarming scale;
• · Drug trafficking activities that create a threat of drug penetration into the territory of Russia or the use of its territory for the transit of drugs to other countries;

Introduction

The security of the Russian Federation is the state of protection of the vital interests of its citizens, society and state from internal and external threats.

By security threats we mean potential threats to political, social, economic, military, environmental and other, including spiritual and intellectual values ​​of the nation and the State. Security threats are closely linked to the national interests of the country, including outside its territory. In each specific case, their liquidation requires special forms and methods of activity of the State: the use of appropriate special bodies, forces and means of the state.

The main security objects are:

personality - its rights and freedoms; society -- its material and spiritual values;

the state - its constitutional system, sovereignty and territorial integrity

The threat to the security of the Russian Federation is a combination of conditions and factors that endanger the vital interests of the individual, society and the state.

The real and potential threat to security objects, emanating from internal and external sources, determines the content of activities to ensure internal and external security, depending on the spheres of life of society and the state, which are targeted by security threats. they can be conditionally divided into political (threats to the existing constitutional order), economic, military, informational, man-made, environmental and others.

Security threats: external, internal, cross-border

Today, there are several types of threats to the national security of the Russian Federation: external, internal and cross-border. External threats include the deployment of groupings of armed forces and assets near the borders of the Russian Federation and its allies, territorial claims against the Russian Federation, threats of secession of certain territories from the Russian Federation; interference in the internal affairs of R.F. from foreign countries; buildup of troop groupings leading to disruption of the existing balance of forces near the borders of the Russian Federation; armed provocations, including attacks on Russian military installations located on the territory of foreign states, as well as on objects and structures on the State Border of the Russian Federation and the borders of its allies; actions that impede Russia's access to strategically important transport communications; discrimination, non-observance of the rights, freedoms and legitimate interests of citizens of the Russian Federation in some foreign states

The main external threats to national security are:

1. reduction of the role of Russia in the world economy due to the targeted actions of individual states and interstate associations, such as the UN, the OSCE;

2. reduction of economic and political influence on the processes taking place in the world economy;

3. strengthening the scope and influence of international military and political associations, including NATO;

4. emerging trends towards the deployment of military forces of foreign states near the borders of Russia;

5. ubiquitous distribution in the world of weapons of mass destruction;

6. weakening of the processes of integration and establishment of economic ties between Russia and the CIS countries;

7. creating conditions for the formation and emergence of military armed conflicts near the state borders of Russia and the CIS countries;

8. territorial expansion in relation to Russia, for example, from Japan and China;

9. international terrorism;

10. weakening of Russia's position in the field of information and telecommunications. This is manifested in the reduction of Russia's influence on international information flows and the development by a number of states of information expansion technologies that can be applied to Russia;

11. revitalization on the territory of Russia of the activities of foreign organizations involved in intelligence and the collection of strategic information;

12. A sharp decrease in the military and defense potential of the country, which does not allow it, if necessary, to repel a military attack, which is associated with a systemic crisis in the country's defense complex.

13. activation in the territory of Russia of the activities of foreign organizations engaged in intelligence and collection of strategic information;

Experts refer to internal threats as follows: attempts to forcibly change the constitutional order and violate the territorial integrity of Russia; planning, preparation and implementation of actions to disrupt and disrupt the functioning of public authorities and administration, attacks on state, economic and military facilities, life support facilities and information infrastructure; creation, equipping, training and activities of illegal armed formations; illegal distribution of weapons, ammunition and explosives on the territory of the Russian Federation; large-scale organized crime activities that threaten political stability in some regions of the Russian Federation. Activities of separatist and radical religious national movements.

The main internal threats to national economic security are:

1. strengthening the degree of differentiation of living standards and incomes of the population. The formation of a small group of the wealthy population (oligarchs) and a large part of the poor population creates a situation of social tension in society, which can ultimately lead to serious socio-economic shocks;

2. deformation of the sectoral structure of the national economy. The orientation of the economy towards the extraction of minerals creates serious structural shifts;

3. Strengthening the uneven economic development of the regions. A sharp difference in the level of socio-economic development of the regions destroys the existing ties between them and hinders inter-regional integration;

4. criminalization of Russian society. In society, the tendencies to receive unearned income through direct robbery and seizure of property have sharply increased, which negatively affects the overall stability and stability of the national economy. Of great importance is the total penetration of criminal structures into the state apparatus and industry and the emerging trend of merging between them;

5. a sharp decline in the scientific and technical potential of Russia. The basis of economic growth - the scientific and technological potential - has been practically lost over the past decade, due to a reduction in investment in priority scientific and technical research and development, the mass exodus of leading scientists from the country, the destruction of science-intensive industries, and the strengthening of scientific and technical dependence;

6. strengthening the isolation and desire for independence of the subjects of the Federation. Russia has significant territories that function within the framework of a federal structure;

7. increased interethnic and interethnic tension, which creates real conditions for the emergence of internal conflicts on ethnic grounds;

8. widespread violation of the single legal space, leading to legal nihilism and non-compliance with the law;

9. decline in the physical health of the population, leading to degradation due to the crisis of the health care system;

10. demographic crisis associated with a steady trend of prevalence of general mortality of the population over the birth rate.

Taken together, internal threats to national security are closely intertwined and interrelated.

The environmental situation in the world is characterized by negative trends. Its characteristic features are the depletion of natural resources, the periodic occurrence of extensive zones of environmental disasters and catastrophes, and the degradation of renewable natural resources. Most countries are characterized by the use of environmentally imperfect technologies in industry, agriculture, energy, and transport. A real threat to Russia's interests is the tendency to use its territory for the disposal of hazardous waste from the chemical and nuclear industries of the developed countries of Europe.

There are growing negative trends in the global social sphere. There is an increase in the proportion of patients, the disabled, people suffering from hunger and malnutrition, the use of poor-quality water. The proportion of the illiterate and unemployed remains high (according to the official unemployment rate, Russia is still among the most prosperous countries, ranking approximately 7th in the world). However, according to the classification of the International Labor Organization in Russia, there are more than 5 million unemployed. Approximately the same number work part-time or are on forced leave, the level of material support of the population is declining. Migration processes are expanding to alarming proportions. Indicators of physical and mental development of people are deteriorating.

The threat to the physical health of the nation is manifested in the crisis state of health care systems and social protection of the population. There is widespread alcoholization of the population. Consumption of recorded and unrecorded alcohol per capita in terms of pure alcohol is from 11 to 14 liters, while the situation is assessed as dangerous at -8 liters.

Cross-border threats are manifested in the following:

Creation, equipment and training on the territory of other states of armed formations and groups for the purpose of their transfer for operations on the territory of Russia;

The activities of subversive separatist, national or religious extremist groups supported from abroad, aimed at undermining the constitutional order of Russia, creating a threat to its territorial integrity and the security of its citizens. Cross-border crime, including smuggling and other illegal activities on an alarming scale;

Drug business activities that create a threat of drug penetration into the territory of Russia or the use of its territory for the transit of drugs to other countries;

Activities of international terrorist organizations.

Terrorism, having a very complex content, affects the national security of the country at all its levels - interstate, state, international, national, class and group. In addition, domestic and international terrorism violates the nation's ability to self-preservation, self-reproduction and self-development.

Domestic and international terrorism carry a similar threat. In general, the boundary between these types of terrorism is so shaky (according to most scientists, terrorist acts committed in Russia are manifestations of precisely international terrorism) that, as the author sees it, it is very difficult to clearly separate the threats from them.

Terrorism poses a threat to the country's interests in the social sphere, which are to ensure a high standard of living for the people. By destroying the economic and political systems of society, terrorism prevents the highest value of society, which is its own well-being.

Terrorism violates the main inalienable right of every person - the right to life. The result of the two Chechen wars and the activities of all pro- and anti-Russian administrations is a full-scale humanitarian catastrophe. Over the 12 years of the anti-terrorist war in the Chechen Republic, the total losses amounted to about 45 thousand people. Over half a million residents of Chechnya and adjacent territories were forced to leave their homes

The process of identifying sources of dangers and threats requires a clear understanding of their general and specific characteristics. Sources of danger to the security of the state are in various spheres of society. It seems that the most significant of them are hidden in the spheres of political relations of the state, classes, social groups of society; economic relations; spiritual and ideological, ethno-national and religious, as well as in the environmental and information security spheres, etc.

In the modern world, in the light of recent events, topics are increasingly being raised that explain risk factors and, in general, all military threats to Russia's national security. To consider this problem more broadly, it is necessary to first understand the concept itself. The satisfaction of any national interests in the modern world is due to the mutual and mutual action of countries on the world stage with the assistance of forces directly within the country. Such relations are on the verge of cooperation and confrontation - at the same time. this state of affairs can be regarded as an ordinary struggle for survival. Therefore, one way or another, countries should take into account mutual interests. But in case of non-compliance with the rules of the game or a disregard for one state to another, this can be regarded as a threat to the security or integrity of the state, at least in economic terms.

What is a security risk

Thus, military threats to the national security of Russia can be defined as indirect or direct risks to freedom, constitutional rights, territorial value, the level and quality of life of citizens, development, security and defense of the state.

Such clashes based on the satisfaction of their national interests are the first step towards security-related problems. This is how the interpretation of the concept looks, but based on this, the following should be noted. In the absence of national interest, the threat as such does not exist, thus, it can be classified as a danger, which in itself can appear not only as a result of human activity, but also natural, man-made and natural disasters.

Threat classification

Before considering how strong the national security of the Russian Federation is and where danger should be expected from, it is worth analyzing the types of threats.

A potential threat is always considered during the development and creation of any program. Despite the plan and its direction, such risks must be calculated. At the same time, immediate threats require the immediate activation of special systems and "levers" for the crisis to take an adequate response. Most often, the focus of such problems is precisely potential threats. Sources may be targeted, for a specific purpose and relatively geographically focused. The latter, in turn, can be determined not only by external, but also by internal sources, which we will discuss in more detail using a specific example.

Internal threats to Russia's national security

At the moment, the main threats to military security can be divided into the following:

• in society can be one of the most dangerous risks. This is the so-called time bomb, which can explode at any moment, as soon as the gap between the rich and the poor reaches a critical limit. This implies the growth of tension in society, prostitution, alcoholism, drug addiction, and the criminal component.
• Resource orientation, in this example, oil and gas, of course, allows you to have a high income for the entire state, but at the same time, it is worth noting that there can be no talk of any sustainable and stable economic growth.
• Growing economic growth gap between different regions. In conditions when one region lives better than another, ties are destroyed, and this definitely does not contribute to integration between regions.
• Criminogenic situation of the whole society in Russia. Recently, cases of unearned income have become more frequent, and this can be observed both among the general population and the top of power, which affects the general instability and instability of the economy. In such a situation, it is almost impossible to bring the national economy out of the current crisis.
• Problems associated with a decrease in scientific and technical potential as the basis for economic growth. In fact, the national security of the Russian Federation is facing a rather serious threat, due to the fact that recently Russia has not made a sufficient contribution to science-intensive industries, so there is simply no necessary scientific potential.
• Separatist views of individual territories that function on the principle of a federal structure.
• Interethnic and interethnic tension, which has only intensified in recent years.
• The demographic crisis and the decline in the physical health of the population.

If we consider all the above security threats together, it is clear that they are quite closely related. When one occurs, the next one may become relevant, and so on along the chain. The elimination of all these problems is necessary in order to ensure the preservation of statehood. But in addition to internal threats, special attention should be paid to external ones.

External Threats to Russia's National Security

As for problems from outside, everything is much simpler here, and they seem more obvious, since basically the whole country suffers from their action. Among these threats are the following:

• International terrorism.
• Reducing the role of the Russian Federation in world political and economic life, due to the targeted actions of both specific states and organizations (the example of the OSCE and the UN).
• Territorial expansion relative to China and Japan.
• Constant increase in NATO's military presence.
• Deployment of military forces near the borders of Russia, in particular the United States.
• The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
• Deterioration of relations with the CIS countries, in particular Belarus and Ukraine.
• The crisis of the country's defense potential.
• The constant occurrence of military armed confrontations near the borders and countries of the CIS, a vivid example of this is the military coup of 2013-2015.
• The weakening of the position in the field of telecommunications, due to a number of countries that are investing simply colossal funds in the information war.
• Activation on the territory of the Russian Federation of foreign organizations, spies and the so-called

Thus, internal and external threats necessarily require constant monitoring in order to keep security under control.

Manifestation of the US threat (Cold War)

In fact, there have been constant attempts to display an unfriendly attitude on the part of the United States, and many facts testify to this, and such maneuvers from this side will continue in the future. this problem can hardly be found, since the interests of the Russian Federation and America lie in completely different planes and understanding of what is happening. But, as experts have already noted, the Cold War did not actually end, but only a short break was taken in order to hit Russia with renewed vigor.

Much can shed light on recent chess castlings in Eastern Europe and the interest of the United States in all of this. Despite the fact that the CIA has 4 bases outside of America, plans are most likely to build another one right on the borders with Russia, namely in Ukraine.

As can be seen from the latest situation in this country, Ukrainian structures are incompetent, extravagant, deceitful, and, in addition, there are obvious elements of disrespect for either the Russian president or the state as a whole. If the CIA base is opened, then America will be able to carry on a conversation with the Russian Federation, if not in elevated, then in confident tones. Thus, an experienced, highly debugged structure will appear at the borders, which established its own order in more than 40 countries.

The conflict in Ukraine as a direct threat

Touching upon the topic of "the enemy at the gates", it is certainly worth noting that military threats to Russia's national security have become critical after the conflict in Ukraine, and this is noted by competent services around the world.

So, suppose that the plans of the government of the most “democratic” country in the world (according to its own version) really include the construction of bases in Ukraine. Why is this needed and what will it actually give? In fact, the answer lies not only in the geopolitical control of this region. Naturally, in this country, the first thing to do is to create a special center for the training of radicals and terrorists, so that later they will be transferred to Russia to cause unrest. In this case, we are talking about those young people who have been ideologically indoctrinated since the early 1990s. Now, almost a large half of the friendly, fraternal and once united country within the USSR considers Russia to be the root of all troubles and the main enemy, so they will gladly go to learn how to kill the enemy at American training grounds.

Radicals and terrorist organizations

The threat of terrorism and radicalism can be noted as a no less problem. The primary task of such organizations is to exacerbate the degree of tension, induce chaos, unrest and fear in society, the need to rock the situation and strain the situation.

As you know, there is a lot of direct evidence that the United States is creating terrorists on an industrial scale, but for some reason the world community constantly turns a blind eye to this (for unknown reasons). In Afghanistan, it was al-Qaeda, and its actions were directly directed against the USSR. After the collapse, the need for it subsided, and after that the CIA double agent Osama bin Laden was also killed, as an extra and already unnecessary witness, but in the media he was presented as terrorist No. 1.

What do we see in the modern world? Libya, Syria, Ukraine, and then who? And next will be Russia, and will help America in this ISIS. Thus, it can be said with confidence that the threat of terrorism mainly comes from only one “democratic” state, which, under the guise of an ardent fighter against these structures, itself creates a danger.

NATO

Despite the fact that NATO bases have filled the whole world, direct military operations with the Russian Federation are practically excluded. Therefore, military threats to Russia's national security from this bloc are close to zero. Many facts can speak about this, and, of course, the Russian "nuclear fist" plays an important role. No one wants to doom the entire planet to death, and the opening of the Southern and Eastern fronts can just lead to this. Of course, the possibility of active participation of this bloc is not ruled out if the Russian Federation is still able to withstand the economic blockade and sanctions, but still this will again not be open, but underground activity in the preparation of militants, terrorists and their transfer to the territory. But, one way or another, such external military threats, as one can safely regard as potential

Economic threat (sanctions)

In the course of recent events, one wonders why such a large, rich and powerful country suffers from deliberate economic impact? And the problem is the following, as they say, "trouble came from where they did not expect it." Modern Russia is a raw material appendage of the economy, but not its own, we are talking about exports. The impact of the sanctions was so planned and tangible that all the world's levers were involved. This is the artificial reduction in oil prices by the Arab states, and the restrictions that Europe has introduced. The modern economy of the Russian Federation largely ignores the needs of the citizen, as it did 20 years ago. Modern business itself does not produce enough, and often just sells its own raw materials or, even worse, imported goods. Therefore, emphasis was placed on the most vulnerable and vital sectors. This should be regarded as an impetus for re-profiling to the eastern market, but isn’t it too late, couldn’t this move have been foreseen?

Modern Threats

Of course, terrorism is the No. 1 threat to Russia's national security, but if you look into the near future, then several more, no less important, problems may be added to this problem. As early as 2015, the Russian Federation may find itself in the very center of a fight to the death for natural resources. The world began to rebuild from multipolarity to polycentrism, instability began to grow, and competition between new centers of power became fiercer. The modern world is entering one of the most difficult demographic, ecological and resource periods. Russia in this situation is a very important player, thanks to its own. And no military threat is terrible only when you are treated as an equal, and in the case of Russia, when they are afraid. Therefore, no matter how many attempts are made to weaken its geopolitical and geographical positions, all of them will be nullified. But with growth in fossil fuels steadily rising and gas and oil remaining the main energy sources with a projected share of 84% through 2030, Russia's time is yet to come. The only danger is that the Russian Federation borders on 16 states, which now and then try to revise their borders.

Forecast for the future

Of course, the Kremlin's relations with Brussels and Washington will never be the same again. And in response to all the threats of NATO, the US NMD systems, the constant "color" revolutions in a number of post-Soviet countries and near the borders of Russia, the government updated the doctrine, which refers to ensuring the national security of the state. According to this document, in response to an action, a reaction will immediately follow, thanks to which the whole country can sleep peacefully and not worry about its future.

Natural and artificial threats

The development of new information technologies and general computerization have led to the fact that information security is not only becoming mandatory, it is also one of the characteristics of IS. There is a rather extensive class of information processing systems in the development of which the security factor plays a primary role (for example, banking information systems).

Under IP security refers to the protection of the system from accidental or intentional interference in the normal process of its functioning, from attempts to steal (unauthorized receipt) of information, modification or physical destruction of its components. In other words, this is the ability to counteract various disturbing influences on the IS.

Under the threat of information security refers to events or actions that can lead to corruption, unauthorized use, or even destruction of the information resources of the managed system, as well as software and hardware.

Information security threats are divided into two main types - these are natural and artificial threats.. Let's dwell on natural threats and try to identify the main ones. . To natural threats include fires, floods, hurricanes, lightning strikes and other natural disasters and phenomena that are beyond human control. The most common among these threats are fires. To ensure the security of information, a prerequisite is the equipment of the premises in which the elements of the system (digital data carriers, servers, archives, etc.) are located with fire sensors, the appointment of those responsible for fire safety and the availability of fire extinguishing equipment. Compliance with all these rules will minimize the risk of loss of information from a fire.

If premises with valuable information carriers are located in close proximity to water bodies, then they are subject to the threat of information loss due to flooding. The only thing that can be done in this situation is to exclude the storage of information media on the first floors of the building, which are prone to flooding.

Lightning is another natural threat. Very often during lightning strikes, network cards, electrical substations and other devices fail. Especially tangible losses, when network equipment fails, are borne by large organizations and enterprises, such as banks. To avoid such problems, the mains connection cables must be shielded (shielded mains cable is resistant to electromagnetic interference) and the cable shield must be earthed. To prevent lightning from entering electrical substations, a grounded lightning rod should be installed, and computers and servers should be equipped with uninterruptible power supplies.

The next type of threat is artificial threats, which in turn divided into unintentional and deliberate threats. Unintentional Threats- these are actions that people commit through negligence, ignorance, inattention or out of curiosity. This type of threat includes the installation of software products that are not included in the list of necessary for work, and subsequently can cause unstable system operation and loss of information. This also includes other "experiments" that were not malicious intent, and the people who committed them were not aware of the consequences. Unfortunately, this type of threat is very difficult to control, not only is the staff qualified, it is necessary that each person is aware of the risk that arises from his unauthorized actions.

Deliberate Threats- Threats associated with malicious intent of intentional physical destruction, subsequently failure of the system. Deliberate threats include internal and external attacks. Contrary to popular belief, large companies suffer multi-million dollar losses often not from hacker attacks, but through the fault of their own employees. Modern history knows a lot of examples of deliberate internal threats to information - these are the tricks of competing organizations that introduce or recruit agents for the subsequent disorganization of a competitor, the revenge of employees who are dissatisfied with wages or status in the company, and so on. In order to minimize the risk of such cases, it is necessary that each employee of the organization corresponds to the so-called “trustworthiness status”.

To external intentional threats include threats of hacker attacks. If the information system is connected to the global Internet, then to prevent hacker attacks, it is necessary to use a firewall (the so-called firewall), which can be either built into the equipment or implemented in software.

A person who tries to disrupt the operation of an information system or gain unauthorized access to information is usually called a hacker, and sometimes a “software pirate” (hacker).

In their illegal actions aimed at mastering other people's secrets, hackers seek to find such sources of confidential information that would give them the most reliable information in the maximum amount with minimal cost to obtain it. With the help of various tricks and a variety of techniques and means, ways and approaches to such sources are selected. In this case, the source of information means a material object that has certain information that is of particular interest to attackers or competitors.

The main threats to the security of information and the normal functioning of the IS include:

Leakage of confidential information;

Information compromise;

Unauthorized use of information resources;

Erroneous use of information resources;

Unauthorized exchange of information between subscribers;

Refusal of information;

Violation of information service;

Illegal use of privileges.

Leakage of confidential information- this is an uncontrolled release of confidential information outside the IP or the circle of persons to whom it was entrusted in the service or became known in the course of work. This leak may be due to:

Disclosure of confidential information;

Leaving information through various, mainly technical, channels;

Unauthorized access to confidential information in various ways.

Disclosure of information by its owner or owner is the intentional or careless actions of officials and users who were entrusted with the relevant information in the prescribed manner in their service or work, which led to familiarization with it of persons who were not admitted to this information.

Uncontrolled care of confidential information via visual-optical, acoustic, electromagnetic and other channels is possible.

Unauthorized access- this is an unlawful deliberate possession of confidential information by a person who does not have the right to access protected information.

The most common ways of unauthorized access to information are:

Interception of electronic radiation;

The use of listening devices (bookmarks);

Remote photography;

Interception of acoustic emissions and restoration of the text of the printer;

Copying media overcoming protection measures

Disguise as a registered user;

Disguise under system requests;

Using software traps;

Exploiting shortcomings of programming languages ​​and operating systems;

Illegal connection to equipment and communication lines of specially designed hardware that provides access to information;

Malicious disabling of protection mechanisms;

Decryption by special programs encrypted: information;

information infections.

The listed ways of unauthorized access require quite a lot of technical knowledge and appropriate hardware or software developments on the part of the cracker. For example, technical leak channels are used - these are physical paths from a source of confidential information to an attacker, through which it is possible to obtain protected information. The reason for the occurrence of leakage channels is the design and technological imperfections of the circuit solutions or the operational wear of the elements. All this allows hackers to create converters operating on certain physical principles, forming an information transmission channel inherent in these principles - a leakage channel.

However, there are quite primitive ways of unauthorized access:

Theft of information carriers and documentary waste;

Proactive collaboration;

Declining to cooperate on the part of the burglar;

probing;

Eavesdropping;

Observation and other ways.

Any methods of leaking confidential information can lead to significant material and moral damage both for the organization where the IS operates and for its users.

There is and is constantly being developed a huge variety of malicious programs, the purpose of which is to corrupt information in the database and computer software. A large number of varieties of these programs does not allow the development of permanent and reliable remedies against them.