Consumer demand: definition, classification and methods of study. Encyclopedia of Marketing The main stages of marketing research

Analysis of the size of demand- analysis aimed at identifying the gap between supply and demand in order to decide on the most profitable areas of production, as well as potential market segments, penetration into which is facilitated due to a reduced level of competition.

ENG: Demand analysis

Consumer demand is understood as that part of the total social need for goods and services that, at a given level of prices and tariffs, can be satisfied at the expense of consumers' money. In turn, needs are historically conditioned and objectively necessary requests of people to the conditions of life, work and life. Depending on the degree of satisfaction, realized (satisfied) and unsatisfied demand are distinguished. Realized demand is characterized by the amount of consumer money spent on the purchase of goods. Retail turnover serves as an indicator of the satisfied demand of the population in goods. There are no direct indicators of unsatisfied demand. Its indirect indicators can be: an increase in savings and cash balances in the hands of the population, a noticeable increase in prices for these goods, a sharp decrease in the stocks of these goods in the distribution network and in the warehouses of manufacturers.

The elasticity of demand is its ability to flexibly change under the influence of determining factors. Since the main of these factors is the price, we first turn to the price elasticity of demand. It measures the degree of reaction (or sensitivity) of consumers to price changes. Depending on this degree, demand is conditionally divided into two types: elastic and inelastic. If a small change in price is accompanied by a significant change in the quantity demanded, then such demand is called "elastic". If even a very large change in price only slightly changes the quantity demanded, then such demand is called "inelastic".

Relationship between supply and demand. One of the most important conditions for the development of the market and the circulation of goods is the supply of goods, which is the mass of goods that is on the market or can be delivered to it. Supply and demand are two opposing and interdependent categories of the market economy. The supply is formed under the influence of the population, and the demand is formed and realized only if there is a supply of goods on the market. Their global ratios reflect a certain level of economic development of a country or region. For example, in a market equilibrium, characteristic of a normally developing economy, the supply of goods (P) is equal to the volume of demand (S): P=S. Under PS) can be the result not only of excessive production or import of goods, but also of exorbitant price inflation, a shortage of money among the population with the failure to satisfy many of their needs. The way out of this situation is associated with a decrease in prices for goods and services, an expansion of the effective demand of the population.

Demand analysis. It is theoretically very difficult to analyze demand, since any study of statistics, the involvement of sociological studies and printed materials gives a very approximate result. Personal contacts with potential buyers make it possible to determine their preferences, tastes and requirements, but this requires a lot of time and money. In this case, it is effective to apply test sales, but this is not always realistic. It should be borne in mind that the demand for traditional goods (for example, bread) is almost constant, and when fundamentally new goods are released, demand is only emerging and can outstrip supply, that is, the volume of production of this product. But there comes a time when the demand for the product is saturated, the needs of buyers are satisfied, the volume of production begins to exceed demand. As information for the study of demand, data obtained as a result of the use of cash registers can serve, allowing you to constantly take into account the daily sale of goods in terms of quantity, amount, structure, including the range and even individual products.

Demand Forecasting- this is a forecast of the total volume and structure of demand for consumer goods and services that can be presented on the market in the forecast period under certain conditions of changes in the solvency of consumers and the supply of goods. Consumer demand forecasts are necessary for developing strategies for the development of industrial and commercial enterprises, for developing a rational policy for state regulation of commodity circulation. The process of forecasting consumer demand includes the following stages: preparation and processing of initial information for forecast calculation; development of a hypothesis of the expected socio-economic conditions for the development of demand in the forecast period; calculation of the forecast for the future; assessment of the results of demand forecasting and development of rules for their possible adjustment.

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General characteristics of forecasting methods used in marketing research.

The problem of forecasting, due to rapid, sometimes poorly predictable changes in the external environment, has become especially difficult over the past decade. Given these difficulties and the criticality of errors in forecasts, some experts were forced to talk about the futility of forecasting. In fact, forecasting is a duty that, implicitly or explicitly, all organizations must inevitably fulfill.

In addition to obtaining possible future estimates of certain parameters under study, the purpose of forecasting is also to encourage thinking about what can happen in the external environment and what consequences this will lead to for the company. Forecasting increases the vigilance of managers and therefore their ability to respond to change. This effect is achieved even when the plan is not fulfilled due to the fact that some of the hypotheses underlying the forecast scenario did not materialize.

Forecasting methods, like all methods used in marketing research, can be classified into heuristic, in the application of which subjective principles prevail, and on economic and mathematical methods, in the application of which objective principles predominate, which include statistical methods.

Heuristic methods assume that the approaches used to form a forecast are not explicitly stated and are inseparable from the person making the forecast, the development of which is dominated by intuition, previous experience, creativity and imagination. This category of methods includes methods of sociological research and expert methods. Moreover, the respondents, giving their assessments, can base their judgments both on bare intuition and using certain cause-and-effect relationships, statistics and calculations.

So, when forecasting demand, consumer preferences are studied; sales personnel serving certain territories, dealers, distributors, marketing consultants, etc. can be considered as experts.

When using economic and mathematical methods, approaches to forecasting are clearly formulated and can be reproduced by others who will inevitably come to obtain the same forecast.

If, when applying expert methods, the structure of cause-and-effect relationships used by different experts may be different, then when using economic and mathematical methods, the structure of models is established and verified experimentally, under conditions that can be objectively observed and measured.

Determining the system of factors and the causal (causal) structure of the phenomenon under study is the starting point of economic and mathematical

modeling.

In fact, all these methods are complementary. An effective forecasting system must provide the ability to use any of these methods.

An example of a complex forecasting problem that cannot be solved by any one method is forecasting the sales volume of a new product. Market research evaluates sales of a new product during the first years (say three) after launch. For this purpose, expert methods, survey methods, sales in the control market can be applied.

Expert assessments formulated by marketing specialists are based on information collected at the preliminary analysis stage and taking into account data on competitors' sales, potential market size, overall demand, market shares of various brands, availability of distribution networks, etc.

Missing information is collected through direct interviews with potential users, traders, suppliers and, if possible, competitors.

A market test, or test sale, during which the actual market behavior of buyers is observed, allows you to assess the level of trial and repeated purchases and the volume of potential sales of a new product. You can also conduct trial sales at the place of residence or experiments in special laboratories-shops.

These methods are usually used together. Using any of the above or some other approach, the marketing function must establish a prospective sales volume for a new product, on the basis of which product launch strategies are developed.

It is clear that in a highly variable external environment, intuition and imagination can become important tools for perceiving reality, complementing quantitative approaches that, by definition, rely only on observable factors. On the other hand, it is clear that the purely qualitative method is also subject to significant errors and that intuition should be tested as much as possible with the available facts and knowledge. Therefore, the two approaches should be combined.

As for demand forecasting, in a methodologically correct formulation, it is the art of estimating future demand under the assumption of a certain behavior of buyers in given conditions. Demand forecasting in this case should be carried out in three stages. First, a forecast of the external environment is developed, then a forecast for the development of this industry, and finally, a forecast is developed for the magnitude of demand for the goods of a particular company. Such complex, especially analytical models, are extremely difficult to develop and implement, therefore, simpler statistical models have been used in practice.

All sales forecasts are based on the use of three types of information obtained from the study: what people say, what people do, and what people have done. Obtaining the first type of information is based on the study of the opinions of consumers and buyers, sales agents and intermediaries. Methods of sociological research and expert methods are used here. Learning what people are doing involves testing the market. Studying what people have done involves analyzing the statistics of the purchases they have made.

Usually, in this case, we are talking about forecasting, based on statistical data on sales for a particular company or a particular market, the magnitude of the current market demand for a particular product. In the literature, which provides the results of the use of certain statistical models, very often there is no distinction between different types of demand, and it is directly identified with the volume of sales.

Forecasting future needs and requests of consumers.

In addition to the ability to anticipate and satisfy those needs and demands of consumers that really exist, are recognized and perceived by them, the ability to identify probable changes in the structure of consumer preferences, in

integrated marketing is another area of analysis and forecasting the needs and demands of consumers. This is the prediction of the so-called unconscious needs of people that they may have in the future, and the existence of which, the possibility of their appearance, many consumers today do not yet know. Such unconscious needs can arise only under the influence of scientific and technical progress, as a result of significant social changes, etc. In this case, we are talking about the study of consumer behavior in the formation of a new sales market, the analysis of the reaction of consumers to serious innovations (not necessarily technological, today there are much more innovations in the field of management and business organization), to the proposal of fundamentally new types of products and services.

Scientific and technical progress has such a feature that its results, the achievements of science and technology, as a rule, are ahead, and much more so, of the maturity of socio-economic conditions for the transformation of innovations into commercially successful types of products and services. This was especially typical for the former USSR, where the technological gap between the defense and civilian industries by the end of the 80s. reached such a level that it was possible to carry out the conversion of military production, oriented to the domestic market, only through a sharp decrease in the scientific and technical level of defense enterprises. Most of the technologies in the field of military production of the former USSR could find their commercial use only with the export orientation of defense plants (it does not matter - civilian or military). The general technological backwardness of the civilian industry of the former USSR (and the current Russian Federation) simply did not allow many innovations from the military-industrial complex to be used.

Products turn into consumer goods when the diffusion of innovations, the production of analogues of these products, the borrowing and duplication of technologies for their manufacture, when the differences between the products of different firms are reduced to a minimum, become a relatively simple matter.

It doesn't happen right away. It can take years or decades between a scientific discovery, a technical invention, and a product for the market. The timing of the transformation of an innovation into a commercially viable product depends on how quickly consumers realize the need for this particular invention in their daily life, the ability of a new product or technology to satisfy newly emerged or greatly modified desires, needs and demands.

Therefore, the analysis of future needs and demands of consumers is to study how consumers will react to the appearance on the market of fundamentally new products and technologies. It is a key element in evaluating the market prospects for any brand new product, the opportunity to turn a new technology or cutting-edge science into a commercially successful product. It (this element) must be taken into account by those enterprises and firms that seek to base their comparative competitive advantages on constantly being ahead of competitors in terms of innovation, releasing products based on technology that is difficult to reproduce or can be copied.

When a fundamentally new product enters the market, its manufacturer has to deal with two interrelated processes:

1) diffusion of innovation- dissemination outside your organization of information about the possibility of its practical, commercial use and the benefits that the new product promises to its user;

2) acceptance or approval of a new product by the consumer. This is a kind of process for a potential consumer to decide, based on the study of available information and his own experience, whether an innovation is suitable for his needs.

Diffusion of innovations is, first of all, the exchange of ideas, the transfer of information about the merits of the product from the manufacturer to the consumer. In the process of diffusion of innovations, it is necessary to classify all possible sources of information (for example, as a result of discussion, exchange of opinions between consumers and resellers) and channels for transmitting data about your product and identify those that can be directly influenced or effectively influenced ( directly or indirectly).

Sources of information about a new product for the consumer can be divided into 2 groups:

dependent, having a positive impact on the promotion of your new product in the market (custom-made articles in newspapers and magazines, recommendations and advice from your dealers, press releases, presentations, etc. - everything you pay to advertise and promote your products).

independent(various assessments of independent experts, conclusions of consumer protection societies, professional associations, publications with a reputation for objective analysts, reports of specialists at scientific conferences, finally, the consumers of your products themselves - perhaps the most important source of independent information - etc., in short - everyone who can prove their non-engagement to your company). The process of spreading information about your new product in the market is a direct or indirect impact on both groups of information sources.

The consumer is always more inclined to rely in the evaluation of a new product on the judgment of an independent source of information than on information gleaned from advertising messages or company prospectuses.

Therefore, when diffusing innovations, it is important to attract the attention of independent sources of information as soon as possible and get their objective assessment of their products (for example, the "Expertise" column of the Izvestia newspaper, the "Demand" magazine, the opinions of experts from the Russian Society for the Protection of Consumer Rights, etc. ). Especially in the Russian Federation, it is worth avoiding the services of any state bodies (especially Rosstandart organizations, various ministries) that have a heavily tarnished reputation everywhere (in almost all regions of the Russian Federation). The United States or other highly developed countries of the world, where control over their own reputation in the state apparatus is very strict and transparent to the media, is another matter. Their conclusion may not be as significant for the Russian consumer as the opinion of the consumer protection society, for example, but it will still be classified as independent. (The marketing of products and technologies intended for state needs (the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Education, etc.) stands apart here. There are other working conditions here that exclude the laws of the market. And the conclusion of government agencies is sometimes decisive).

In the case of positive results, you can be sure that the process of consumer acceptance of innovations has begun, and you can talk about the beginning of the emergence of new consumer requests. If the result turned out to be negative or even ambiguous, then one more stage of refining the new product or technology lies ahead so that it can be really approved by consumers and we can talk about the emergence of demand for them in the market.

At the same time, it is always necessary to maintain a balance between the degree of novelty of the product and its continuity with previous products and technologies of enterprises. If your new product is only a cosmetic update of a previously produced model or is frankly imitation, repeating the main engineering or design ideas of your competitors, then it is unlikely that consumers, dealers, independent sources will pay due attention to it. Conversely, if the product turns out to be too unusual, it is unlikely that consumers will be able to fully appreciate its merits. So a balance between the degree of novelty and continuity with previously known models on the market is necessary. And it is especially important to maintain this balance in the process of diffusion of innovation, the movement of information about a new product from the manufacturer to the final consumer and vice versa, and take this into account in everyday practice (Table 1).

Table 1. Variants of action in the diffusion of innovations.

But, in addition to the effective organization of information support for the introduction of a new product or technology to the market, it is also necessary to analyze the process of approval and perception of the innovation by potential end users, to correctly assess the features of their behavior and attitude to the new product. In general, the process of approval and acceptance of innovation is presented in the form of a flowchart (Fig. 2):

Rice. 2 Stages of perception of innovations

The dissemination of information about a new product and the exchange of ideas between the manufacturer and the consumer is only a necessary condition for the successful promotion of a new product on the market. A sufficient condition is the approval of the innovation by the consumer. Only after the consumer learns about the new product, fully familiarizes himself with it, evaluates the advantages over other, previous products and technologies, will he be able to make a decision regarding the approval of the innovation. Variants of actions of the enterprise depending on the main stages of diffusion of innovations are shown in Table 3:

Options for stimulating consumer perception of innovation in the market.

As already noted, information about a new product first comes to the consumer directly from the enterprise and from other sources of information. After the consumer is sufficiently aware of the situation on the market, knows what place a new product or type of service occupies in relation to those already existing on the market (i.e., upon completion of stages 1,2 and 3, characterizing the process of diffusion of innovations), begins the process of consumer perception of a new product, during which his opinion undergoes a series of changes and adjustments, as it were, goes through several successive stages of analysis. At each stage, the consumer uses the same sources of information as in the process of diffusion of innovations, but at the same time he himself makes the final decision, selecting the information that is necessary for this. Naturally, in the process of approval and acceptance of a new product, the personal qualities of consumers play a much more important role than in the course of diffusion of innovations. For a manufacturing enterprise, it is important to know not only through what sources information about a new product comes to the consumer, but also the composition of the consumers themselves, to whom this information is transmitted, their psychographic and behavioral parameters. After all, in the end, each individual consumer makes his own conclusion about a particular innovation and makes an independent decision. External factors and sources of information only influence the decision-making process, but are not the only circumstances that determine the final choice in each particular case. Much depends on the personal qualities, lifestyle, level of education and other individual characteristics of the consumer making the decision.

In addition to the individual characteristics of the consumer, the process of perception of a new product by him is also strongly influenced by the social environment in which the consumer is located. In many cases, for example, consumers purchase a new product only because it is prestigious to have it in terms of the environment in which it operates.

Not all leaders need cell phones (and the technical possibilities they open up) as a means of operational management. But the presence of this phone in Russia in the 90s. - an attribute of belonging to a certain social stratum. An executive without a cell phone will not be received as he would like at a bank when negotiating a loan or with an important business partner when discussing a major contract. But as soon as such a leader finds himself in a hospital bed, for example, he strives to talk on the cell phone as little as possible, quite "proletarian" making do with a pay phone. This is not an invention. In the building of the Medical Center at the Botkin Hospital in Moscow, one can often see queues for a pay phone of people tenderly keeping in their

Chambers "Motorola" and "Ericksons".

Needless to say, the consumer in the market can reject the innovation at any of the stages discussed above. The main idea of innovation may not please the consumer already at the initial stage (stage 4, Fig. 2) of the perception of a new product. In any case, it is important for the manufacturer to catch the consumer's reaction to the innovation as soon as possible in order to make timely adjustments to the technical parameters of the new product.

Integrated marketing requires a completely different approach to the development and implementation of innovations, when it is not the thought of a scientist or engineer that determines the direction of the search, but the change and development of the system of consumer preferences, anticipation of new requests and needs of people.

It is now becoming increasingly important to study the progress of human needs. Everything you do in marketing (from studying the dynamics of consumer demands and preferences to determining a market niche for your company) has one clear and definite, and most importantly quite quantifiable goal - to increase your company's sales during the year, to ensure its rapid growth.

In a competitive environment, the growth in sales volume, the growth in the volume of products sold and the amount of cash flows generated by this growth is the most important indicator, the main criterion for the effectiveness of your business.

Thus, when analyzing a consumer, first of all, it is necessary to find answers to the following questions: incentives, sensations, what (requests and preferences) determine the perceptions, motives of the consumer, his behavior in the market of your product or enterprise.

Then you have to determine the possible attitude towards your product in the market and establish a feedback mechanism:

Having received answers to such questions and having systematized the data, it is possible to make a decision about the fate of a particular product, draw a conclusion about promising innovations in the market, and also clarify the company's action plan for organizing the promotion of a product or service.

Making sales forecasts.

The first task of the management of an enterprise or firm after studying the market is to determine what, in what period and in what quantities it can sell on the market. The answers to these kinds of questions constitute the sales forecast. The sales forecast is the volume of sales (sales) of one or more products for the upcoming period of time (year, quarter, month). Sales forecasts are made both in physical terms (pieces, tons, conditional sets) and in cost indicators. We emphasize right away that the sales forecast is, first of all, a plan for the shipment of products and services to potential consumers, and it is very different from the plan for receiving funds for the supplied products. Therefore, if the sales volume for the coming calendar year is 100 thousand rubles, then this means that the enterprise has produced and shipped goods and services to buyers in the amount of 100 thousand rubles. How much the company actually receives from these deliveries (the whole amount or some part) depends on the terms of settlements with consumers. And it has nothing to do with the sales forecast. The sales forecast should be distinguished from the sales budget, the development of which provides for the drawing up of a schedule for the receipt of funds, the procedure for the formation of receivables. The sales forecast (sales) in terms of value in intra-company financial planning and budgeting is usually an item in the budget of income and expenses (profit and loss), and the schedule of receipts is taken into account in the cash flow budget.

Based on sales forecasts, all planning of production and financial activities is built. In accordance with sales forecasts, decisions are made on where and in what volumes to direct investments, what additional production capacities will be required by enterprises and after what period of time, what new sources of supply should be found, what design developments or technical innovations should be put into production, etc. . Naturally, a sales forecast is still a forecast. The role of random or unaccounted factors, their impact on the financial position of enterprises in various industries in market conditions is quite large. Therefore, the forecast is always probabilistic. But the main thing in compiling sales forecasts is the initial orientation of production to the consumer, to the analysis of his needs, requests and preferences, the desire of production to respond as sensitively as possible to any changes in the composition of consumers (demographic, social, professional, etc.), even in their reaction on certain social phenomena or political processes (for example, on a heightened perception of the deterioration of the environmental situation in a particular region, on the desire to eat foods with a low or, conversely, high content of certain substances, on an increased interest in psychics - in one or another to a certain extent, this may also affect the demand for certain goods and services, and in an implicit way). And one of the tasks of market research is to catch these changes in time, and even better to anticipate them.

All divisions of the enterprise need sales forecasts when it comes to working on the market. Manufacturers and technological services need them in order to determine the range of products, to prepare equipment, tooling, fixtures accordingly. Logistics services, in accordance with sales forecasts, determine the schedule for the supply of raw materials and materials, the sizes of batches of components, etc. Financial services - the size of working capital, labor costs in the coming period.

The sales forecast is usually compiled in the form of a table, which presents the proposed sales volumes for individual products and services in kind.

in terms of price dynamics for each product, sales volumes in value terms both for individual goods and for enterprises as a whole.

The company's management has to make a number of decisions on compiling a sales forecast (choosing the type of sales forecast, the method for compiling forecast options and the final sales forecast, determining sources of information, etc.).

Types of forecasts .

Sales forecasts can be divided into short term, medium term and long term. AT Depending on industry specifics, the nature of products, the diversity of the assortment, and sales regions, various enterprises require certain types of forecasts. But in any case, market research plays a key role in making sales forecasts.

The most common type of sales forecast is forecast for the fiscal or calendar year. It is used as a basis for planning all needs in finance, products, labor force, for drawing up estimates (budgets), cost limits. Such forecasts are often broken down into semi-annual, quarterly and monthly sub-periods. The duration of the period for which a sales forecast is made is determined by the specifics of the business and may be based on seasonal product needs or on the duration of the enterprise's production cycle. If it takes 6 months to turn raw materials into finished products, the sales forecast covers a six-month period. So, for the production of a batch of demi-season coats or men's pure wool suits, other garments of similar complexity, it takes from 10 to 14 weeks. Accordingly, annual sales forecasts for enterprises in this industry must necessarily have a weekly, monthly and quarterly breakdown indicating the sales volume for each type of product for each period.

Medium-term forecasts cover a period of 2 to 5 years. They, in essence, extrapolate the existing sales trends in a particular market into the future, taking into account the impact of expected changes in the size and composition of the population, the economic situation, and other factors. Such forecasts are used to establish the timing of certain activities (including in the field of marketing itself), which form the sales strategy of an enterprise or firm. For example, an enterprise begins to master a product that is fundamentally new for itself. The market for this type of product has long been divided, and the competition for a new manufacturer, the so-called outsider, is very strong here. If the company's management believes that, in terms of its technical level, quality, and price, a new product should find a market, then for success in the new market, it is not enough to make only an annual forecast. We need to look further.

When evaluating the capabilities of an enterprise, not only the sales volume of a new product in absolute terms in the current year, but also the growth rate of sales volumes should be taken into account. When sales of new products increase rapidly at the initial stage, it is quite possible to allow for a further increase in sales volumes when making a medium-term forecast, if we are talking about an outsider company in this market. Drawing up a medium-term forecast will give the management of the enterprise information, without which it is impossible to make the right decision in the field of investment policy. The implementation of significant capital investments in production, and even more so the construction of new production facilities for the production of a new product, are associated with a long payback period for these costs. The medium-term sales forecast will therefore allow us to assess how effective this investment program is, what return, profit will be brought by investments in increasing the production of a new product after the construction of the corresponding production facilities is completed, it will answer the question: "Does it make sense to invest in this project at all?"

Long-term forecasts can be developed for a period of 5 to 50 years. The value of long-term forecasting for an enterprise also largely depends on the nature of its products, technological and commercial specifics. Thus, enterprises that extract raw materials often plan to develop additional resources, new deposits and technological equipment long before they are actually needed.

(sometimes in 20-25 years).

The shorter the forecast period, the more accurate the sales forecast. When the period for which the forecast is made is longer, the number of variables that need to be taken into account increases. It is impossible to unequivocally indicate how, with the help of which method it is most expedient to develop a sales forecast at a particular enterprise. Typically, it may take several years for the management of the enterprise to develop the most suitable formula for successfully making such forecasts for various periods of time. Moreover, the requirements for modern production, the production of the information age, are such that a technique that is effective today may cease to be so tomorrow.

Sources of information . The preparation of a sales forecast begins with a study of the extent to which the activities of a particular enterprise are related to the general economic situation in the country. Then an assessment of the strength and degree of aggressiveness of possible competitors is made. To do this, when compiling sales forecasts, a preliminary analysis of the market where the company plans to sell its products is always necessary. Here an important role is played not only by the methods of analysis, but also by the correct selection of sources of information. When analyzing the market, it is necessary to take into account the trends in the country's economy as a whole, the situation in the industry and correlate them with the financial position of the enterprise, with the existing plans for investment and production development. If an enterprise plans or already sells a significant part of its products abroad, then when compiling a sales forecast as a whole, it is also necessary to use information about the market situation in the country to which the products are exported.

In countries with highly developed market economies and a correspondingly highly developed market infrastructure, there are many sources that can be drawn on to make sales forecasts.

Based on the study of these sources, specialists can obtain information about the situation in individual industries and regions, about the level and dynamics of consumer and wholesale prices, about changes in conditions on the labor market, about the level of consumer income, about operations in the field of foreign trade. Important sources are also annual reports to shareholders of competing firms, commercial surveys, reports of trade organizations, reports and surveys of advisory firms. Underestimating the severity of the pressure of market competition, the reaction or actions of competitors in the market is the most common mistake in making a sales forecast.

Before proceeding with the analysis of the market of your enterprise using any method, it is necessary to familiarize yourself with the materials of state statistics on the situation in this industry. Any information about the dynamics of prices, consumer income (wages), demographic changes, and even about the peculiarities of weather and climate conditions in a given region for the coming season can be useful. Next, you need to start collecting information about possible competitors in the market. Here it is necessary to refer to such sources of information as annual reports of joint-stock companies (which may be competitors), commercial reviews of specialized organizations (research institutes, consulting firms), business periodicals, reports of sales agents, retailers

and wholesale trade, other marketing intermediaries about stock levels

of a particular product, on the reaction of consumers to the supply of a particular batch of goods.

When compiling a sales forecast, it is also important that marketing data be linked to those activities at the intra-company level that are directly related to the sale of products. First of all, the management of the enterprise needs to pay attention to changes in prices for the products it produces in the future (is it possible to reduce costs or improve quality, provide the consumer with additional types of services without changing the price of the product), expected changes in distribution channels and forms of product sales, promotion programs products on the market (advertising, providing additional benefits and privileges to regular consumers, methods of attracting new customers, etc.), introduction of new products into production, opportunities to increase production, attracting first-class resellers or sales intermediaries. It is especially important to measure the possibility of increasing sales, increasing working capital in the form of products shipped but not paid for by consumers, other forms of sales credit with the financial condition of the enterprise, cash flow.

It must always be remembered that a too rapid increase in production and sales volumes (by more than 20% per year at constant prices) in isolation from control over the financial situation of an enterprise can put it on the verge of bankruptcy, which will require a massive attraction of financing from external sources (mainly short-term loans) to replenish working capital, since cash receipts from sales will not be sufficient to finance current costs.

Methods for making forecasts.

When developing a sales forecast, an integrated approach is important, using several forecasting methods at the same time and comparing the results obtained. Among these methods, the most common are the following:

1. Survey of a group of heads of various services and departments of the company. Previously, these managers should receive relevant information regarding market analysis. In this case, the sales forecast is something "average" of the views and blueprints of the interviewed group of managers. This method of making a forecast is most suitable for new enterprises that do not have enough experience in using other methods. This method is also applicable when there are no detailed calculations on the state of the market, there are no complete statistics on the sales trends of certain types of products.

2. Summarizing the estimates of individual sales agents of the company and the heads of its sales departments. In this case, market analysis is supplemented by the opinion of those who directly feel the reaction of consumers, most acutely feel the slightest fluctuations in consumer preferences. The regional aspect is also taken into account here: individual employees or sales managers can provide additional information about the features of the sale of certain products in different regions of the country. Accordingly, the accuracy of estimates with this method is higher than with the first one. But the organization of such work is associated with large overhead costs (primarily with additional costs for the remuneration of specialists and analysts, for data processing, etc.). And while firms that value their brand (especially leading industrial companies with world-class production or aspiring to become one) never skimp on them, special procedures are often required to control and budget these costs. Otherwise, the accuracy of the forecast may adversely affect the financial position of the enterprise.

3. Forecasting based on past turnover. AT In this case, last year's sales data are taken as the basis for predicting likely future sales. It is assumed that the turnover of the next year will exceed or be lower than the turnover of the current year by a certain amount (usually, a percentage increase to the data for the previous year is taken according to the so-called principle "from what has been achieved"):

This forecasting method is suitable for industries and markets with a stable economic environment, a slightly changing range of goods and services, with a sluggish scientific and technical progress, where significant fluctuations in trade occur extremely rarely. A typical example of such an industry is the public utilities. Using this method, it is impossible to take into account rapid changes in the nature of commercial activities, in the structure of consumer demand, etc. As for competition, its degree is not taken into account here at all.

4. Analysis of trends and cycles, factors causing changes in sales volume. The sales forecast is based on identifying, through market analysis, probabilistic trends and the statistically significant underlying factors. The following main factors are usually taken into account: long-term growth trends of the firm, cyclical fluctuations in business activity, seasonal changes in the company's sales, possible impacts of strikes, technical shifts, the emergence of new competitors in the market. This method is most preferred when making long-range forecasts. Statistical patterns, identified trends and dependencies over the years offset the effect of random and secondary factors. At the same time, using this method, it is difficult to predict for a period of less than 3-5 years; the sample, the array of processed statistical information, and the period of manifestation of cyclical fluctuations are too small. This method is most suitable in capital-intensive industries.

5. Correlation analysis, i.e. determination of statistically significant factors of influence on the sales of the company's products. It logically complements the previous method, but is based on more complex scientific tools of statistical market analysis. Usually, within the framework of special surveys, the closeness of the correlation between the level of sales of an enterprise and various aspects of economic activity is determined, the impact on sales of which can be logically proven or justified. Thus, the most significant factors are identified and ranked (according to the degree of influence), depending on which the sales volume may change in the future. It should be noted that such a forecasting method necessarily requires serious special and complex, and therefore quite expensive, not always economically justified market research. The most accurate results, however, with the help of this method can be obtained in the most stable sectors in terms of economic conditions.

6. Forecasting based on the "market share" of the firm's sales, at which turnover is projected as a certain percentage of the firm's market share in the industry, i.e. first, sales are forecast for the entire industry, and then the share of the enterprise in the total sales of the entire industry is calculated. When using this method, it is important firstly, be confident in the accuracy of the forecast for the entire industry, Secondly, do not take into account non-price competition in it (at the level of new products and services).

7. End use analysis. The forecast here is based on the estimated volumes of orders of the main customers of the enterprise (turnover usually exceeds this figure by a certain predetermined percentage). The application of this method requires special research on the main industries that consume the products of this enterprise, the collection and processing of significant statistical and factual material. This method is preferred in the sectors of the raw materials and energy complex, as well as in enterprises that produce components and assemblies.

8. Analysis of the assortment of goods, in which sales forecasts for individual types of products are brought together and form the planned turnover of the company. This method is most suitable for highly diversified enterprises, but the accuracy of the overall forecast depends entirely on a detailed survey of the market for each type of product. And this, in turn, requires considerable costs.

The effectiveness of the application of a particular method depends entirely on the specific conditions and specifics of the economic activity of the enterprise and can only be determined in the system of general market research activities. In a marketing-oriented company, as a rule, several variants of sales forecasts are compiled using various methods (as a rule, 3-4 methods are selected.). The resulting estimates are then compared in order to identify emerging differences in the estimates. It is usually considered that the forecast is correct if the difference between the estimated and actual sales does not exceed 5%. If these discrepancies are significant (the spread in the values of sales forecast indicators by various methods exceeds 10%), then most likely mistakes were made when compiling the sales forecast using some method.

In some cases, when compiling sales forecasts, the so-called trial marketing. In the absence of a well-established market research function and experience with sources of information in the company, this method may be the most accurate in making sales forecasts. The essence of this method is as follows: an enterprise or firm starts marketing a product in a very small market (for example, within the same city, district). Even one outlet can be taken as an object of analysis if the market research is correctly conducted and its most typical location is chosen (in terms of the target market segment, consumer profile and distribution channels). Thus, in a small part of the market, an attempt is made to model everything that is then supposed to be implemented on the scale of the entire sales region. The main components of product promotion on the market (advertising forms, sales promotion methods, pricing policy, distribution channel, packaging, etc.) can also be checked here. They seem to be tested on a small group of consumers. After processing the information received on the volume and growth rate of sales of a new product, the relevant Sales Forecast Targets are distributed to the entire region. However, this method is one of the most expensive, and its application requires a good preparation of all marketing departments in the company.

One of the important elements of compiling a sales forecast is the development of several forecast options. There are usually three options for sales forecasts: most likely, optimistic and pessimistic. As a basis for compiling optimistic and pessimistic options for the sales forecast, analysis of influence factors. Company, firstly, should identify which factors in the coming period can most seriously affect the level and dynamics of product sales; secondly, assess the degree of their influence (by what percentage each of the identified factors can contribute to an increase or decrease in sales compared to the most probable values). For example, the completion of a major investment project in a region can increase the number of potential consumers by 30%. In this case, the optimistic version of the sales forecast will be 30% higher than the most probable one.

The procedure for compiling a sales forecast in a marketing-oriented company.

1. Prepare a list of products for which sales forecasts are made.

2. Determine the period for which sales forecasts will be made (from 1 to

3 years), the order of their breakdown into separate sub-periods (by months, quarters) and the format of the final sales forecast.

3. Select physical units of measurement (in tons, pieces, conditional sets, etc.) of sales volumes for each product, determine the level of prices per unit of each product and their change by sub-periods (inflation rate) throughout the entire period in a single comparable cost indicators (rubles, US dollars, etc.).

4. Determine methods for making forecasts (3-4 of the main methods).

5. Establish the sources of information necessary for compiling sales forecasts for the selected methods, determine the procedure for collecting and processing data.

7. Determine the factors (no more than 7-8) that may affect the level and dynamics of sales of an enterprise or firm for the coming period. Determine the degree of influence of each of the factors on the level of sales according to the most probable variants of the sales forecast (if possible for each method).

9. Compare the received options, establish deviations and prepare a final sales forecast in accordance with the selected format.

Study and evaluation of consumer demand for goods.

The structure of the shoe market.

In the first half of 2001, the output of footwear decreased by 0.9%, including in the light industry by 5.4%; in the 2nd half of the year increased by 5% compared to the 1st half of 2001 and by 2.6% compared to the 2nd half of 2000. Due to this, an overall slight increase of 0.6% was achieved at the end of the year, and the decline in output in the light industry decreased up to 3.1%.

Such dynamics of footwear production is due to the increase in imports. As already mentioned in the analysis of demand for leather, there are no problems with raw materials for the production of shoes. The demand for shoes has also grown - last year it was sold 8% more than in 2000.

True, the share of shadow production in the production of footwear is very high. According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, it is 20% more than the official volume. But shadow production could not grow so much (at least 1.5 times) to satisfy the increased demand.

Organized imports almost doubled last year (by 95.5%) and amounted to almost 14 million pairs, including 7.7 million pairs (an increase of 2.8 times) were imported from non-CIS countries, and 6.3 million pairs (an increase of 44%) - from the CIS countries.

In 2001, 1.4 million pairs of shoes were exported (84% of the export volume in 2000).

Footwear was produced by 202 enterprises, including 19 that started production in 2001. However, a significant part of enterprises produced small volumes - more than a quarter of enterprises produced less than 5 thousand pairs in a year, including 18% of enterprises - less than 1 thousand pairs.

Almost two-thirds of enterprises (62%) either reduced their output or maintained it. At the same time, for 17% of enterprises the fall was more than 2 times, for 18% of enterprises it was in the range of 25-49%. At the same time, 18% of enterprises increased production by more than 25%, including a third of them - by 51 - 100%, and another third - more than 2 times.

The main volume of footwear (68%) was produced by 33 enterprises that produced more than 300 thousand pairs each.

Domestic shoe manufacturers began to oust importers, who had occupied up to 90% of the market before the August crisis. To do this, they have already acquired modern equipment and have gained some experience in working in market conditions.

Many Russian factories can already produce shoes that are not inferior to

import. A significant increase in production is hampered by poor technological equipment and a lack of working capital. Most of the components have to be purchased abroad. Therefore, from the development of a model to the start of its mass production, a long time passes. The inertia of Russian manufacturers in changing models also hinders their competitiveness. However, the further, the more domestic shoe factories will be represented on the market.

The largest suppliers of raw materials and dressed leathers for Russia are: Germany, followed by America, Austria and France. Chevro, shagreen, chevret (lower grades of chevro), husky and opoek come to us from Germany. It is interesting to note that the previously used Austrian white calfs are now being replaced by the manufacture of Russian calfskins, manufactured in Germany. Kazan goat skins, which are considered the best in the world, are also little utilized in Russia, and are bought up mainly by German manufacturers, who make high-quality chevro from them, which goes back to Russia, already in the form of semi-finished products and finished products.

Such uncompetitive dominance in the Russian market of foreign semi-finished products and products is thus due not to shortcomings in the raw material, but solely to our technical backwardness in the processing of leather. It is this shortcoming that first of all presupposes the elimination of a new industrial enterprise, which for this purpose invites specialists from Germany.

During a visit at the beginning of 1999, organized by the Ministry of Commerce of the Government of India, an agreement was reached on the supply of raw materials and components for St. Petersburg enterprises of the shoe and leather industries, in particular, for Skorokhod OJSC, Proletarskaya Pobeda OJSC, Kozha State Enterprise. All of them will be able to receive a commodity loan, which will allow them to work stably and provide new jobs for up to five thousand people.

Despite the crisis in Russia, Hungary does not intend to stop economic

relations with its old partners, but on the contrary, it is ready to offer schemes for increasing the import of Hungarian products. The reasons for the decline in imports to Russia were the depreciation of the ruble, distortions in pricing and general economic instability. Therefore, the Hungarian side proposes to return to barter schemes in foreign trade, especially since Hungarian footwear is well known to Russian buyers.

The main volume of shoes imported into Russia goes to Moscow. After the August crisis, the volume of imports decreased tenfold. As in other industries, this allowed Russian enterprises to fill the vacant niche.

One of the import problems is the illegal import of products. The fact that smuggling has reached gigantic proportions is no secret to anyone.

Dynamics of prices for footwear.

The dynamics of changes in the average sale prices for shoes is explained by shifts in the assortment of shoes produced, the season, the level of inflation and other factors. In 2002 there was a decrease in prices for leather shoes imported from non-CIS countries. This allowed importers to reduce customs duties by almost $10 million and VAT by $13 million.

In 2003 prices increased slightly, but remained lower than they were in 2001. (for boots with polymer soles by 46%, for low shoes - by 27%. These types of footwear account for 78% of all imported footwear).

In 2004 in three out of five countries, the average prices for boots and ankle boots increased, incl. imported from China by 53%, but remained on average 19% below the level of 2001. for all countries (except Ukraine).

The customs service forced importers to increase prices. Finally, she also noticed the underestimation of prices in April 2004. minimum prices were set at which goods from China could be declared. This was the reason for the huge imports from this country, the supply doubled.

Sales technology.

Sales is just one of the many functions of marketing, and often not

the most essential. If the marketer has done a good job on such sections of marketing as identifying consumer needs, developing suitable products and setting an appropriate price for them, establishing a system for their distribution and effective incentives, then products will certainly go easily.

For the fastest and most profitable sale, special sales technologies are used. Consider the shoe promotion technology, it includes the following tasks:

1. informing potential consumers about the product - inclusion in industry and company directories, participation in exhibitions, direct mail, participation in specialized competitions and other events that contribute to informing about this product,

3. promotion of information on the Internet - filling and promotion of the site, exchange of banners,

4. work with organizations interacting with potential consumers - agreements on the mutual exchange of clients, joint promotions,

5. sales promotion - placement of samples, creation of conditions for quality assessment, prize drawing, gifts upon purchase, formation of the required reputation, etc.

The study of the main forms and methods of marketing is aimed at identifying promising means of promoting goods from the manufacturer to the end consumer and organizing their retail sales based on a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the effectiveness of the channels and methods of distribution and marketing used or planned for use, including those that are used competitors.

The criteria for the effectiveness of the choice in this case are: the speed of distribution, the level of distribution costs and the volume of sales. It is believed that the efficiency of the forms and methods of distribution and marketing chosen by the firm is the higher, the shorter the period of time spent on bringing goods from the place of production to the place of sale and their sale to the final consumer; lower costs for their organization; higher sales volumes and resulting net profit. The main goal is to reduce the overall value of marketing costs, which largely, if not mainly, depends on the level of commercial work and sales service. If we take into account that for many shoe companies the costs of selling and marketing products reach approximately 40% of the total level of production costs, then the importance of this area of marketing research becomes obvious.

In our country, there is an erroneous idea that in leading foreign countries, the sale of products is carried out by the manufacturers themselves. In reality, this is not so. In the overwhelming majority, even the largest firms offer their goods to the market through intermediaries. Each of them seeks to form its own distribution channel.

Selling shoes through intermediaries has both positive and negative sides. On the one hand, the use of intermediaries is beneficial, since many manufacturers simply do not have the resources to carry out direct marketing. Even if a manufacturer can afford to create its own distribution channels, in many cases it will be able to earn more if it directs money into its core business. If manufacturing generates a 20% rate of return and retailing only 10%, the firm will naturally not want to retail itself. Through their contacts, experience, specialization and scope, intermediaries offer the firm more than it could do alone. Also, the advantage of this distribution system for the manufacturer is the ability to immediately supply large quantities of goods to large wholesalers. Thus, there is no need to create and finance the activities of their own distribution channels.

On the other hand, working through intermediaries, the manufacturer to some extent loses control over how and to whom he sells the goods, and, as marketing experts note, he does not always receive the necessary and sufficiently effective information from trading companies about the position on the market and promotion goods. In addition, the longer the distribution route, the greater the cost of selling the product.

Analysis of the provision of the population with footwear products and identification of preferences and moods of buyers.

The demand for shoes is determined by consumer preferences, where not objective characteristics are decisive, but the subjective perception of the properties of shoes - the purchasing value, consisting of a number of components.

Therefore, it is important to establish by what criteria the buyer evaluates and purchases shoes with the desired combination of properties.

For this purpose, a survey was conducted in the form of a questionnaire. The survey showed that the significance of indicators influencing the choice and purchase of shoes among consumer groups of different age, gender and social status varies.

The survey covered 100 respondents, of which 37% were men and 63% were women. Distribution of respondents by age: up to 25 years old - 42%, 25-39 years old - 22%, 40-54 years old - 20%, over 55 years old - 16%; according to social status: students - 36%, engaged in physical labor - 34%, managers - 6%, pensioners - 6%, housewives - 18%.

For women over 40 years old, quality, price, services are more important than for the age group under 25 years old, for whom the quality of shoes, fashion, appearance, trademark are important.

In the group of 25-39 years there is no particular constancy of opinion. Approximately the same picture is observed in the survey of male respondents.

Advertising on television and radio, advertising in the press has a great influence on respondents when buying. It should be noted that the level of trust in information obtained from direct communication (acquaintances, colleagues, personal experience, observation in stores), in company catalogs, which, as a rule, are also studied in stores or obtained from acquaintances, sometimes exceeds the level of use of these sources. information. This suggests that these communication channels have a very large reserve and are of particular interest due to the high level of trust in them.

When asked about their preferred places to buy shoes, the respondents

men answered the following: 45% prefer to buy shoes in the market, 33

% - in a shoe store, 20% - in a company store, 2% - in other places. Female respondents prefer to shop: 43% - in the market, 40% - in a shoe store, 15% - in a company store, 2% - in a boutique.

To determine consumer behavior when buying shoes, one should know the motives for the purchase: by the beginning of the new season, 22% of men and 28% of women make a purchase; when they find a successful model 19% of men and 30% of women; when there is an urgent need to buy shoes, 43% and 24%, respectively; when there are discounts of 15% and 16%; for other reasons 1% of men and 2% of women.

About the preferred materials for shoes, male and female respondents answered the following. The leading position is occupied by genuine leather, in the second place - by textile materials. Men prefer to choose shoes made of genuine leather - 81%, textile materials - 12%. Women, in turn, prefer shoes made of genuine leather - 72%, textile materials - 22%.

To the question “What domestic shoe companies do you know?” Respondents found it difficult to answer, named non-existent firms or gave their inaccurate names. This suggests that the consumer is little interested in domestic footwear, and he does not receive enough advertising information about domestic shoe manufacturers.

Conclusion.

Under the current conditions of the functioning of a market economy, it is impossible to successfully manage a commercial firm without effective forecasting of its activities. The extent to which forecasting is accurate and timely, as well as consistent with the problems posed, will ultimately depend on the profits received by the enterprise.

In order for the forecast effect to be as useful as possible, it is necessary to

creation at medium and large enterprises of the so-called predictive

departments (for small businesses, the creation of these departments will be unprofitable).

As for the forecasts themselves, they must be realistic, then

there is their probability should be high enough and correspond to

enterprise resources.

To improve the quality of the forecast, it is necessary to improve the quality

information needed for its development. This information is first

turn, must have such properties as reliability, completeness,

timeliness and accuracy.

Since forecasting is a separate science, it is advisable

(to the extent possible) the use of several methods of forecasting when

solving any problem. This will improve the quality of the forecast and allow

identify pitfalls that may go unnoticed when using only one method.

Bibliography.

1. Ross, Scherrer "The Structure of Industry Markets" 1997

2. Kalinina A.V. "Modern economic analysis and forecasting (micro- and macro-level)". Textbook // A.V. Kalinina et al., Interregional Academy of Personnel Management, 2nd ed.

3. Ryabushkin B.T. "Application of statistical methods in economic analysis and forecasting". - M.: Finance and statistics, 1987.

4. V.E. Khrutsky, I.V. Korneeva "Modern marketing. Market Research Handbook. – M.: Finance and statistics, 2000.

5. F. Kotler, G. Armstrong "Fundamentals of Marketing", 9th ed. - M: Williams Publishing House, 2005.

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Why are some products so popular among buyers, while others are not? How can this be caused and with what help are determined the needs of people in the purchase of a particular product?

concept

Today, there is a huge variety of goods and services on the market, but all of them are characterized by heterogeneity, which means that different consumer groups have their own requirements for the proposed product, sales methods and service methods. This situation requires each manufacturer to work hard to study their customers, their desires, needs and opportunities.

Consumer demand reflects the needs of the population in a particular product or service. The change in this indicator depends on the behavior of the buyer, caused by certain circumstances.

Influencing factors

There are many reasons that can affect consumer demand, and the manufacturer must be aware of them so that the decrease in the solvent needs of the population is not a surprise. So, the factors influencing:

seasonality;
fashion;
advertising company;
cultural level of the population;
applied technologies in the production of goods;
increase or decrease in income;
price component;
geographical, national, educational, climatic features.

Goals and objectives of the study

In addition to the very concept of consumer demand, it is also necessary to set goals and objectives for a better study and understanding of consumer behavior.

The goals should include factors such as the volume and structure of demand. They are closely related to each other. When, for example, the volume changes, the structure will also change, and vice versa. Knowing the volume will help to draw up an economic plan for production, form the right assortment for trade organizations and ensure uninterrupted trade, that is, to satisfy the client.

The tasks of studying consumer demand can be divided into two groups:

Forecasting possible implementation, i.e., expectations of sale, the possibility of introducing new products, which of them should be withdrawn from the turnover and replaced with new ones.
Development of the needs of society. Some of the demand can be controlled. If, for example, to instill a taste in the population, giving them the opportunity to use high-quality goods.

Common consumption goods

Separately, it is worth talking about a category of goods that will always be in demand (although it can fall and grow) - consumer goods. These include food, clothes, stationery, household chemicals, dishes, i.e. everything that is required for an ordinary life without luxury.

current demand - for drawing up orders for production and supply;
forecast demand - to determine future demand trends and industry development

To obtain accurate data, you need to systematically monitor the development of demand, determine the size of the need and identify requirements for assortment and quality. It is also worth remembering here that the demand for consumer goods is not constant and changes under the influence of many factors: social, political, economic, etc.

Types of consumer demand or classification

There are the following types of demand:

Realized or satisfied is the demand, which is expressed in the form of a perfect purchase and quantitatively in the form of a volume sold. This demand depends not only on solvency, but also on the possibility of production and supply.
Unsatisfied - demand that could not be satisfied, although the goods were in circulation, but were not on sale. This can happen if the trade organizations were unable to correctly make a request and did not place an additional order, or if there was an untimely delay in the goods for organizational reasons.
Emerging - demand for new products that will soon be on sale. Often, sales organizations buy a limited amount of goods and study the behavior of the buyer.

Classification features

In addition to the types of consumer demand, there are also signs of classification, depending on which consumer demand is determined.

For example, depending on the degree of intensity of demand, it can be intense, stabilized and fading. Intensive means growing rapidly. These may be new products, or high quality ones that already have a good reputation.

Stabilized demand can stay at the same level for a long time or grow at the same rate, which helps in forecasting. As an example, these can be goods that once entered everyday life, although they are not essential goods: coffee, stockings for women.

The fading demand speaks for itself. Most often this is due to the fact that old goods have been replaced by new ones, for example, telephones with wires have been replaced with wireless ones.

The nature of the emergence of demand is divided into sustainable, alternative and impulsive. Steady demand indicates that a person constantly uses this product and buys it with a certain frequency. Alternative demand means a substitute product, but not an identical one. For example, replace the usual powder with a liquid one. Impulsive demand - one that arose while in the store, or after watching an advertisement, or after the advice of the seller.

The degree of distribution is single, limited and massive. Single - is the need for rare goods for a single buyer. An example is jewelry, a car, a musical instrument, a work of art. Limited demand is goods for a certain group of people, for example, weapons for hunting.

Frequency - everyday and episodic. Everyday demand is goods of daily or almost daily use, like food or household chemicals. Episodic demand appears from time to time, such as buying a piece of jewelry or a car.

Depending on the repeatability: primary and repeated.

The first method of studying consumer demand

There are several methods by which you can collect consumer demand data. The first is the automated process of collecting information.

This method does not allow a good understanding of demand, because only information about sold goods, stocks in the warehouse, and information about unsatisfactory demand is known. This means that process automation does not provide complete information. It must be collected by other employees, and this method is an intra-group structure that allows you to develop orders for the supply of goods and adjust them periodically.

To complete the picture of the study of consumer demand for goods, only a computer system is not enough; reliable and convenient carriers of primary information are also needed. Such carriers are labels or labels, as well as inscriptions that are located on the goods. But these carriers most often provide incomplete information in order to understand the needs of people, i.e. they do not provide information about color, taste, pattern, style, etc.

Traditional study method

As a rule, inventory materials and sales receipts are used to take into account realized demand, this refers to the second method of consumer demand.

These materials include:

Accounting for sales based on inventory materials - a long period is taken as the basis, and then the average sales volume per day, week, month is calculated.
Accounting for operational data - requires a more complex analysis of the goods being sold and the balance in the warehouse. Most often, when studying, one product from the selected group is used to make it easier to study demand.
Accounting by daily registration - based on one product that differs in color, size or taste. They lay out a certain amount of goods on the window, and at the end of the day count the rest.
Accounting for special cards - for this method, a long period is taken, perhaps even a year, to mark the balances and receipts of goods for a given period of time. According to such data, one can judge not only the volume of goods sold, but also seasonality.
There is also a record of unsatisfied demand, where each store or organization keeps its own count, writing down on special forms or in magazines what kind of product customers would like to see.

Integrated study method

Sometimes, to study demand, it is not enough to know the quantity of goods sold and its balances, data on realized, unsatisfied and forming demand. In addition, they also use information obtained at sales exhibitions, conferences and exhibitions, which helps in the study and forecasting of consumer demand.

Viewing exhibitions differ from sales exhibitions in that at the first one, as a rule, they exhibit goods that are just beginning to appear on the market. At such an event, you can not only demonstrate the product, but also collect opinions and identify trends in the formation of demand.

Conferences can be held by individual firms to identify customer requirements for the proposed range.

The connection between production and needs is mediated, on the one hand, by the category of supply, and on the other, by effective demand. Demand is a form of manifestation of that part of the need that is provided by purchasing power, i.e. money. Consequently, demand is characteristic of commodity-money relations, is associated with the market and is tied to a specific product.

Demand does not represent all the needs on the market, but only that part of them, which is provided with means of payment for the purchase of the corresponding goods. Demand appears on the market as a form of solvent needs.

As a socio-economic category, the demand for consumer goods is inextricably linked with the labor and social activities of people, with their social relations, with ideological, spiritual, historical, national, moral, moral, aesthetic, psychological and other aspects of human life, with his needs.

Consumption is the causative agent of demand, its motive and purpose. Consumer demand precedes consumption and at the same time is its reflection.

A powerful factor in the formation of consumer demand is the supply of goods. The continuous expansion of the range of goods, their active offer and advertising in every possible way contribute to the emergence of demand for individual goods. Demand reflects individual tastes and needs.

The formation of a product offer in the sphere of circulation in order to meet the needs of the population is carried out by wholesale and retail trade enterprises.

The total volume of demand is measured only in monetary terms and is usually called the market capacity. A quantitative assessment of demand shows the possible volumes of sales of goods. For this, economic and mathematical methods of demand forecasting are used. An economically justified need for goods leads to the correspondence of supply and demand, the acceleration of the turnover of goods, the most complete satisfaction of the needs of the population with the least expenditure of funds and labor.

Quantitative parameters for assessing demand are laid down in the contractual conditions for the supply of goods between manufacturing and trading enterprises, both in terms of volume and specific delivery times.

Demand can be satisfied, unsatisfied (deferred) and emerging. Unsatisfied demand is studied not only by surveys, but also by registering customer orders.

The study of emerging demand to identify buyers' attitudes to new products and determine the boundaries of demand in time is carried out at exhibitions - sales, exhibitions, viewings, as well as with the help of oral and written surveys of buyers. The discrepancy between the structure of supply and demand adversely affects the satisfaction of needs. Demand easily switches from one product to another.

The study of consumer demand reveals the attitude of consumers to the offered goods. Its specificity lies in subjective perception, which changes under the influence of many factors that reflect the objective needs in the minds of people (age, gender, profession, family size and income, natural and climatic conditions, fashion, etc.). To identify the structure of consumer demand, they use questionnaires, interviews, observation, analysis of statistical reporting and operational accounting, study the reasons and motives for buying certain goods or refusing to purchase them. The structure of consumer demand is the basis for making decisions on the formation of an assortment of goods in a retail network. When studying consumer demand, the method of questioning has become widespread, which makes it possible to capture shifts in the structure of consumer demand. Surveys using questionnaires are carried out either by sending them by mail to collect information on individual groups and (or) regions of consumers, or by conducting surveys by employees of retail enterprises in direct contact with customers. The traditional study of consumer demand is based on statistical sampling and grouping, compiling and processing questionnaires, mathematical modeling, and psychoanalysis.

Advertising is an active means of shaping the demand of the population.

The whole set of factors that form the volume and structure of demand is divided into the following groups:

1. Economic: cash incomes of the population and their distribution among individual groups, the level of retail prices, the volume and composition of the product offer, the development of public consumption funds, the volume and composition of non-commodity consumption, the degree of provision of the population with durable goods, etc.
2. Social: social and professional structure of the population, level of education and culture, historical traditions, national customs, fashion.
3. Demographic: change in the population and its composition by sex, age, place of residence, family size.
4. Natural and climatic: atmospheric temperature, humidity, length of the season, physiological characteristics of the human body in different living conditions, terrain, etc.

In relation to individual groups of goods, all factors are divided into strongly, moderately, slightly affecting the volume of demand for goods. The demand of the population during the year is subject to seasonal fluctuations.

Buyer behavior is influenced by four main groups of factors; cultural level, social, personal and psychological order. All of them give an idea of how to reach and serve the customer more effectively.

In addition to subjective factors, consumer properties of goods, their advertising and price influence the state of demand.

The relationship between price and the resulting level of demand can be represented as a curve that shows how many goods will be sold on the market during a specific period of time at different prices. In a normal situation, demand and price are inversely proportional, i.e. the higher the price, the lower the demand and, accordingly, the lower the price, the higher the demand. Therefore, commercial workers in consumer cooperatives need to know how sensitive demand is to price changes. If, under the influence of a small change in price, demand almost does not change, then it is characterized as inelastic. If demand undergoes significant changes, then it becomes elastic. Demand will be less elastic under circumstances where there is little or no substitute for the product, or no competitors, or where buyers believe that the increased price is justified by the high quality of the product.

When deciding whether to change prices proactively, a merchant must carefully examine the likely reactions of customers and competitors.

Until recently, prices in the country had a relatively stable level, and therefore the elasticity of demand was studied mainly depending on the average per capita income. However, at present, when there is an almost continuous increase in prices, as a result of which income growth lags significantly behind the increase in prices, there is a property stratification of members of society (the proportion of the poorest part of the population is increasing), it is extremely important to study the elasticity of demand from the price factor.

In the conditions of decentralization of the management of the national economy, trade enterprises should study the demand at the level of the micro-region of its activity. The industry of this micro-region is also interested in this, in connection with which the task of improving the relationship between trade and industry arises. The following methods are used to determine the realized microdemand:

- accounting for sales according to data on stocks and receipt of goods (balance sheet or automatically recorded using computer technology);
- accounting for special cards, sales receipts and labels;
- Accounting with the help of cash registers with punched attachments, perforated labels, by daily registration.

There are various methods for studying and estimating the size of unsatisfied demand. In the store, its records are kept with the help of special journals, which can be filled in both by the buyers themselves, indicating the lack of necessary goods on sale, and by the store employees at the request of the buyers. But in any case, it is necessary to note the most important features that characterize both the object of unsatisfied demand and its subject (the buyer).

The main characteristics of a product that is not on sale are: product name, size, height, color, brand, model, approximate price that the buyer is guided by, as well as the number of units of the product expected to be purchased. It is desirable to indicate the following information about the subject: gender and age, social class, profession or occupation, home address or telephone number.

For a regional assessment of unsatisfied demand, the following are used:

1. A comparative method based on a comparison of the actual realized demand of the population in different territories of the country, one of which acts as a sample (standard) for comparison. The standard is the territory where the unsatisfied demand for goods is the smallest, and the supply conditions are improved.
2. The method of comparing the growth rates of monetary incomes of the population and savings in deposits. The normal ratio between them is the coincidence of growth rates. If the growth rate of savings exceeds the growth rate of money income, then unsatisfied demand is formed. Its value is determined by the difference between actual savings and their amount, which would be formed if savings grew at a rate equal to the growth of money income.
3. Regulatory method based on the use of rational norms for the consumption of individual goods. Its application is based on the hypothesis that groups of families with the highest level of per capita income can ensure the consumption of certain goods and paid services according to rational norms. If the actual consumption of these groups of families turns out to be below rational norms, then such an “underestimation” of consumption can be conditionally considered the result of an insufficient supply of goods on the market.

Sources of information about the demand of the population must meet certain requirements: accuracy, completeness, timeliness. The sampling method is widely used to collect information about demand. It allows

collect information, which can be obtained by continuous accounting in practice

it is forbidden. A selective method of collecting information is a type of observation in which a part of the whole is selected, and the resulting characteristic is extended to the entire population. The main sampling requirement is

should be representative (representative).

For the development of applications and orders, great importance is attached to information on the intra-group structure of demand. Primary data can only be obtained from retail outlets. Based on the accounting of sales and stocks for a wide range of product range, registration of unsatisfied demand and customer requirements for the quality of certain types and varieties of goods. The possibility of solving this problem is provided by the introduction of computer technologies.

Information about the demand of the population can be obtained by holding exhibitions-sales, exhibitions-views, consumer conferences. Expert opinions provide valuable information for making commercial decisions. Experts are persons who have special knowledge and are able to express a reasoned opinion about the phenomenon or process being studied, based on practical experience and intuition. To interview experts, it is necessary to develop a special questionnaire.

In the practice of studying the intra-group structure of demand, knowledge of the life cycle of goods is important. There are four stages: introduction, growth, maturity, decline. The emergence of new products completes the life cycle of previously produced ones.

Different consumer groups have different requirements for a number of goods of the same purpose. For example, a large family needs a large-capacity refrigerator, but a single person or a family of two does not have such requirements.

One of the important methods of studying demand is interviewing and questioning. According to the frequency of conducting questionnaire surveys are divided into:

- sporadic - surveys of various populations are conducted on a case-by-case basis;
- panel - multiple surveys of the same group of respondents.

Questionnaire surveys are most often used to identify the composition of unsatisfied demand, consumer intentions, buyers' requirements for quality and design of goods.

The study of demand is carried out not with the aim of fixing accomplished facts, but to identify trends in the development of demand and its patterns,

used for forecasting.

Forecasting is scientific foresight. It is necessary for planning production activities, making changes to the range of manufactured products, developing new products in order to better meet consumer demand. The development of a forecast goes through the following stages:

1. Establishment of the object of forecasting.
2. Analysis of patterns of development of demand, commodity stocks, deliveries, identification of factors that form demand.
3. Choice of forecasting method.
4. The process of developing a forecast.
5. Evaluation of the forecast.

When developing forecasts, the strictest objectivity and scientific conscientiousness must be manifested, excluding subjectivity in the assessment of the initial data and their conclusions from the analysis.

Buyer demand forecasts are divided by total volume forecasts

demand and individual groups of goods, as well as current and future forecasts. Forecasting methods are based on the study of regularities and tendencies of the studied phenomena, knowledge of their real relationships.

The following methods are used to forecast demand:

1) extrapolation - the transfer of patterns and trends of the past

for the future;

2) mathematical modeling - description of processes using

mathematical formulas, equations, inequalities;

3) normative calculations - are based on the norms of expenditure and consumption;
4) expert assessments - based on the intuition of experts, are used in cases where information is missing or available - not

formalized;

5) analogy - the transfer of knowledge about one subject to another. For example, the demand for certain types of new products in countries where

appeared later, will develop similarly to those countries where these goods appeared on the market earlier.

In forecasting, ONE method (simplex), two methods (duplex forecast) and more than two methods (complex forecast) can be used.

In the practice of forecasting consumer demand, the choice of method depends on the available information. If all information about the predicted phenomenon is presented only by a dynamic series of statistical data, then the forecast can be made by extrapolation. This does not take into account the change in factors that form demand (a drawback of the method). Therefore, extrapolation is used mainly for short-term forecasts.

If demand has a steady downward or upward trend, forecast calculations are carried out on average rates of decrease or increase.

When forecasting demand, elasticity coefficients are also used. The elasticity of demand is its ability to change

under the influence of incomes of the population, since with the growth of money incomes by one percent, they are not spent in the same amount on the purchase of various groups of goods. The coefficient of elasticity of demand from income is calculated by the formula

where bu is the increase in demand per person;

8x - increase in income per person; y - average per capita demand; x is the average per capita income.

Knowing the dependence of demand on the factor, that is, elasticity, we can

demand forecast for the future period:

Consumer demand is a complex systemic formation. Its quantitative and qualitative characteristics are due to a large number of factors and internal relationships. Therefore, in recent years, multifactorial mathematical models based on multiple regression equations have been used in demand forecasting.

They should accurately reflect the real relationships that are characteristic

for the phenomena described. The accuracy of the forecast depends on the degree of adequacy of the model to the economic phenomenon and on the degree of accuracy of the information.

The normative forecasting method begins with determining the year in which the physiological or rational consumption rate will be reached. If consumption and sufficiency increase exponentially, then each subsequent member of the series is equal to the previous one multiplied by K.

where K is the average growth rate;

yf - actual consumption in the base year; y n - consumption according to prospective norms; n-1 - the number of years after which the prospective

regional consumption rate.

The use of standard indicators in forecasting can serve as a basis for determining the volume and structure of production, sale and consumption of goods in the whole country and a criterion for assessing the degree of satisfaction of the population's demand for consumer goods at the current moment.

The study of demand for durable goods has its own characteristics, since these goods are used for a long time. Therefore, the demand is divided into primary and replacement. The demand for these goods depends on the level of provision of the population, the higher the degree of provision, the smaller the share of primary demand and vice versa.

The volume of primary demand for the year is defined as the difference between the number of fleets of goods in the current and the previous year. The demand for replacement ensures the restoration of worn-out goods (morally or physically). The demand for a replacement arises when an item is no longer in use, but the need for it remains.

The study and forecasting of demand is necessary in order to determine

needs for goods, which is the basis for making specific commercial decisions.

Commercial decisions are all management decisions related to the purchase and sale of goods. Their goal is to ensure that the volume and structure of the product offer is consistent with the volume and structure of the population's demand. The quality of commercial decisions (their scientific nature, competence, timeliness) determines the effectiveness of the functioning of trade. Mistakes lead to interruptions in trade or the formation of excess stocks.

The adoption of a commercial decision requires its economic justification based on materials from studying the demand of the population. If there is no initial base (the store has not traded this product before), then a trial batch is ordered when determining the need for the product.

To make a business decision, you need to:

1) to understand the task - to see what is desired in it;
2) understand the conditions that determine the volume and characteristics of demand for goods;
3) to have data on the current level of commodity stocks;
4) evaluate the optimality of previously adopted solutions for a similar problem;
5) make a decision (formulate) and ensure control over its implementation.

The starting point in the preparation of a commercial solution is the collection, processing and analysis of information on the development of supply and demand for goods, the degree of their balance, and the behavior of individual groups of buyers.

Characteristic features of commercial solutions:

1. Their continuous process. Each specific decision is connected with the past and in the course of implementation it can be refined (corrected) and serve as a basis for making new decisions.
2. Commercial decisions have a quantitative expression of the volume and composition of goods subject to purchase, import, sale.
3. Major commercial decisions are made at all levels in the wholesale and retail trade - individually or collectively, quickly and for the long term.
4. The adoption of commercial decisions is regulated by normative acts.

It is practically impossible to provide absolutely optimal commercial solutions. The number of factors that determine the change in demand for the entire variety of the product range is unlimitedly large, they cannot be foreseen with impeccable accuracy, therefore, regulations provide for the possibility of their adjustment. The shorter the period for which the decision is made, the closer it is to the optimal one. This is facilitated by market research.

The conjuncture is the prevailing situation, the situation that has arisen,

temporary situation in any area of public life. The economic conjuncture is a set of conditions (features) and their dependencies that characterize the state of the economy in a certain period.

The conjuncture of trade characterizes its state for (for) a certain period of time, taking into account the totality of all the specific conditions in which trade takes place.

The conjuncture of trade is studied both for the industry as a whole and for individual goods and regions. The situation that is developing in the market at a particular moment can be defined as the conjuncture of the current moment or the market situation.

Due to constant changes in the conditions of trade, the relevance of studying its conjuncture is increasing, as there is a need for constant monitoring of the market situation and timely amendments to the commercial decisions made.

Therefore, the conjuncture of trade is studied for relatively short periods of time, it includes:

1) the ratio of demand and supply of goods;
2) changes in turnover and commodity stocks;
3) dynamics of monetary incomes of the population;
4) study of satisfied and unsatisfied demand;
5) relationship between trade and industry;
6) organization of goods distribution, including the supply of goods to the retail network;
7) competition in the sources of receipt and sale of goods;
8) seasonality of demand and changes in fashion trends.

Trade organizations and enterprises should promptly

take the necessary measures to normalize the trade environment. This problem can be successfully solved only under the condition of well-organized situational observations.

The system of market observations should provide all levels of trade and industry management with sufficiently complete and timely information on the relationship between supply and demand for the entire variety of product assortment. The results of market observations should not only be recorded, but also reveal the causes of abnormal market observations, as well as predict (forecast) them for the near future. Trade situation analysis materials serve as the basis for adjusting previously made commercial decisions (orders, specifications for supply contracts, etc.), as well as for making operational decisions in organizing the delivery of goods to trade organizations and enterprises. The results of the analysis are of practical value when the necessary commercial decisions are made on them in a timely manner.

Market observations and their analysis are summarized in the following forms:

1) market reviews - reflect all the basic conditions for the trading activities of an organization or enterprise and development features

the market of certain groups and types of goods;

2) market information - cover the state of trade in certain groups of goods or a limited range of trade issues (the progress of the sale of goods when prices change, the quality of the goods supplied, the characteristics of demand for certain goods in retail enterprises, the state of commodity stocks, etc.);
3) express information - contains separate digital materials and facts characterizing the current trade situation.

Sources of information on trade conditions are:

1. Signal messages of employees of retail trade enterprises identified in conversations, their requirements - orders for the delivery of goods, special certificates - information on the state of trade and stocks of goods. In a number of cases, trade organizations create a backbone network of stores, which, under special programs, periodically draw up information about the market situation.
2. Materials study of demand, reflecting processes and trends

its development.

3. Operational and statistical data on the supply, turnover and stocks of goods.
4. Information on changes in the volume of purchasing funds of the population, the movement of monetary savings, migration of funds and other information characterizing the purchasing power of the population.
5. Data on changes in the organization of the sale of goods, the opening hours of stores, the introduction of new methods of trade and other conditions for the sale of goods.

Trade research is not a passive fact-finding process, but a process of actively identifying and eliminating the causes that hinder efficient trade. The study of trade conditions helps to improve operational and commercial work, teaches practitioners to analyze, critically think about their work and, in general, expands their professional horizons.

Market research should provide an answer to the questions of how the current conditions will affect the development of trade in the future and what needs to be done for this.

It is advisable to carry them out in three sections:

- general assessment of the trade environment;
- characteristics of trade in certain groups of goods
(change
- sales, inventory status, demand satisfaction,

quantitative and qualitative change in the assortment, etc.);

Assessment of the state of the trade environment and development of a forecast for

This is the most complex and productive section of the business review, which should contain conclusions and recommendations on the following issues:

1. Will the current trends continue in the coming period?
2. What will be the growth rate of trade?
3. What changes are expected in the demand and sale of individual goods?
4. What shifts will occur in the level and structure of commodity stocks?
5. What active interventions need to be taken to improve trade?
6. What needs to be done to increase its competitiveness in the market?
7. What phenomena, characteristic of this conjuncture, should be paid special attention to?

The answers to these questions will serve as the basis for making specific commercial decisions. This determines the effectiveness of the study of trade conditions, the materials of which should be used not only in trading activities, but also communicated to suppliers and manufacturers of goods.

Commercial solutions of trade organizations and enterprises should

be aimed at the full quantitative satisfaction of the solvent needs of the population and at the qualitative transformation of the structure of needs, their harmonious development and comprehensive enrichment. The reference point for such decisions are scientifically substantiated physiological and rational consumption norms.

An important condition for the effectiveness of commercial decisions is the control over their implementation. In the process of control:

1) the quality of decisions made is assessed;
2) the causes of deviations from the decisions made are identified;
3) adjustments are made;
4) sanctions are applied for violation of agreed commercial decisions.

Consequently, commercial solutions are a necessary tool in the commission of commercial activities of enterprises and organizations, based on the study of demand and trade conditions, which is a prerequisite for improving the efficiency of commercial activities.

Consumer demand: definition, classification and methods of study. Encyclopedia of Marketing The main stages of marketing research

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Consumer demand: definition, classification and methods of study. Encyclopedia of Marketing The main stages of marketing research

Send your good work in the knowledge base is simple. Use the form below

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General characteristics of forecasting methods used in marketing research.

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