Absolute and relative indicators of population growth. Natural, fur, general

Compiled and corrected by the author based on materials

It should be noted that the greatest contribution to the increase in the population of India, which has not yet completed the demographic transition, is made by natural growth (Table 1). A similar situation is typical both for the rural areas of the country and for its cities. However, as one would expect, in cities - the main engines of the country's economic and cultural life - social processes are more intense than in villages. When comparing the data in Fig. 1 and 2 it is clear that if in “urban” India since the mid-80s. XX century Since the second stage of the demographic transition has already begun, “rural” India lags behind “urban” India by at least a decade. Indeed, a more rapid decline in the total fertility rate compared to the total mortality rate has been consistently characteristic of the country’s villages only since 1995. Thus, as we move to subsequent stages of the demographic transition, the values ​​of the natural population growth rate will increasingly decrease due to a decrease in the values ​​of the mortality rate and an even more rapid decline in fertility rates.

Figure 1. Changes in crude birth and death rates in Indian cities, 1972-2009.

http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/datatable/0211/Databook_comp.pdf

The share of natural growth in the structure of the overall urban population growth will be increasingly inferior to the share of mechanical movement, which, with the completion of the demographic transition and the establishment of a modern type of population reproduction, will ultimately determine the nature of the growth of Indian cities.

Figure 2. Changes in the values ​​of crude birth and death rates in Indian villages in 1972-2009.

Compiled by the author based on materials

The second phase of the demographic transition in cities determined a natural slowdown in the rate of natural growth. The almost correct shape of the pyramid in 2001 indicates a progressive age structure of the population, which, however, has a clear tendency towards stationarity (see Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Sex and age pyramid of Indian cities in 2001 and 2007.

Compiled by the author based on materials

However, this picture is typical primarily for the more economically developed South of India (the states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka). According to forecasts, the age-sex pyramid of cities in this region will be bell-shaped by 2025, which indicates an even greater decrease in population growth rates: the South at the end of the first quarter of the 21st century. will move on to the next phase of the demographic transition, characterized by an increase in the overall mortality rate. In the cities of the North (states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand), where family organization is patrilocal in nature (a woman lives in her husband’s family, often isolated from her parents, her social status is lowered) , maximizing fertility in families will still be economically feasible.

It is these states that are currently characterized by the lowest levels of urbanization. The higher birth rate in the cities of the North compared to the Indian South can also be explained by the higher share of Muslims in the religious structure of the urban population (21.5% in the North versus 16.6% in the South): adherents of Islam, the second largest religious faith in India, are In general, they are “more urban” residents than Hindus, and have much higher fertility rates (Table 2).

Table 2. Quantitative characteristics of adherents of the largest religions in India, 2001.

	Hindus	Muslims	Christians	Sikhs
Share of the country's population, % (1991)
Share in the country's population, %
Urbanization level, %
Proportion of persons under 5 years of age, %
Total fertility rate
Age-specific mortality rate in cities (under 5 years), ‰

Compiled by the author based on materials

Thus, for the period from 1991 to 2001. The share of the country's population of only adherents of one religion - Islam - has increased significantly. Muslims, in general, have higher levels of urbanization not only in the country as a whole, but also in individual states; only the states of West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana do not follow the established pattern. Kerala, Assam and Haryana are agricultural states with a traditionally high proportion of rural residents; in Jammu and Kashmir, Muslims constitute the majority of the state's population (both in cities and in rural areas), and therefore they are more or less evenly distributed among settlements of various types; Muslim migrants from Bangladesh settle primarily in rural areas of traditionally Hindu West Bengal.

The relatively low birth and death rates among Christians and Sikhs indicate a much deeper development of the processes of demographic transition with the possible establishment of a modern type in the reproduction of their population. However, this, while being a kind of positive development in the economic development of regions of the country populated by Christians and Sikhs, simultaneously contributes to a decrease in their share in the total population - primarily due to the intensive growth in the number of Muslims, whose communities are predominantly at earlier stages of the demographic transition. The latter are increasing their share not only in the cities of “their” state of Jammu and Kashmir, but also in the predominantly Christian cities of the states of Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram, as well as in most cities of the Hindu states of the North of the country. For the South, this picture is less typical, however, here too Muslims (especially in the cities of the states of Karnataka and Kerala) are slowly but surely increasing their share in both the urban and rural population of administrative-territorial entities.

In this regard, the transition from a progressive to a stationary age structure of the population (both in cities and in rural areas) will occur in the North no earlier than the second half of the 21st century. Already, in the large cities of South India, the share of natural growth in the structure of total population growth is extremely low. In Bangalore (Karnataka) it does not reach 20%; Almost 50% of the population growth here is due to migration. Thus, the high share of natural increase in the total population growth of Indian cities will be increasingly supported precisely by the high birth rate in the Northern states. However, since 2005, the total fertility rate in urban India has been below the replacement level of the population - 2.1 children per woman. However, the population of cities still continues to increase, and precisely due to, for the most part, natural growth. Such a contradiction, however, is easily explained: in this case, there is a delay in the decrease in population density due to a fairly high proportion of young people in the age structure of the population. At the same time, taking into account the data in Fig. 3, we can expect an increase in the country's urban population for at least another quarter of a century. However, even later, when the role of the migration component in increasing the urban population increases, the latter will grow, but no longer due to natural growth.

Fertility in general depends not only on the age, but also on the sex structure of the population. For India, the ratio of women per 1,000 men in urban areas is one of the lowest in the world - 926. In turn, for every 1000 women in the cities of the North in 2001, there were about 35 births per year, and in the cities of the South - 21. Thus, women in the North give birth on average 1.5-2 times more than in the South. This immediately affects their life expectancy: women in the South live 9-10 years longer. Frequent childbirth, poor health, poor quality of medical care, low social status, reluctance to have daughters, who are considered a burden in Indian families - all this will lead to an even greater decrease in the size of the female population relative to the male population in cities (and in rural areas) in the North of the country . A smaller number of women, primarily in the poorest strata of the population that produce the maximum growth - therefore, a smaller number of children being born and an even greater exacerbation of social contradictions in Indian society than now: this is the price that the cities of the North will have to pay for the possibility of the third phase of the demographic transition in the second half of the 21st century V.

The second component determining urban population growth is the balance of migration. The implementation of the act of migration is generally determined by internal and external reasons in relation to the migrant, which represent 2 groups of factors (subjective and objective, respectively) that prompt a person to migrate. In this regard, one cannot but agree with the classic of Russian population geography B.S. Khorev, who argued that the complex of reasons that motivate a person to migrate is determined by both territorial differences in the standard of living of the population and the needs of the individual. In most cases, the city becomes the place where human needs are realized. This situation is typical mainly for developing countries, where the differences between urban and rural areas, both economically and socially, are most pronounced (and India is no exception). It is in the city that, due to the extremely high level of concentration of industry and trade here, a person can count on fairly high wages, receiving a quality education, the opportunity to enjoy cultural entertainment, etc.

Even despite the fact that at the end of the 20th century, only one out of every three migrants came to Indian cities, the intensity of such flows is exceptionally high. The 3.5 million migrants who come annually to cities (mostly with a population of more than 100 thousand people) often replenish not the population of these cities, but the population of huge slum blocks, legally located outside the city limits.

However, the intensity of migration flows to cities is by no means weakening. In this case, it is determined by the combined action of the “attractiveness factor” (determined by the force of attraction of the city, i.e. the level of its attractiveness for potential migrants) and the “push factor” (determined by the force of pushing potential migrants out of the countryside, i.e. the level of satisfaction of needs people inhabiting it). At the same time, low-skilled migrants have very little chance of getting well-paid jobs, qualified medical care and other benefits of civilization that cities can potentially provide them with. Many of the migrants, having not achieved their goals, leave their new place of residence due to the action of the “repulsion factor” directed in the opposite direction from the cities.

However, not all migrants whose movement is directed towards cities actually increase the size of the urban population. Only 60% of migrants who identified themselves as urban residents in the 2001 census (55% in 1991) came from rural areas. 2/3 of them, or 40%, come from villages of “their” state (in 1991 - 53.5%) and only 1/3, or 20% - from villages administratively belonging to other states of the country (in 1991 g. – 1.5%). Noteworthy is the significant increase in the share of interstate migrants in the rural-urban system over the last decade of the 20th century. compared to the time period 1981-1991, but geographically the mobility of the Indian population is quite low. This is facilitated, first of all, by social reasons, the main one of which is the caste stratification of Indian society. According to the prevailing ideas among Hindus, the life of any of them should be spent among the representatives of his caste; the implementation of inter-caste marriages is extremely difficult; each caste is engaged in the type of activity that is prescribed to it by existing traditions. Another reason for this is the extremely low degree of one of the main determinants of the migration process in general - the survival rate of migrants belonging to the current layer of new settlers. In India, every third migrant who has lived in a new place for less than 5 years leaves (to an old or more advantageous place of residence from an economic and social point of view).

In order to assess the mobility of the population and its preferences in choosing a future place of residence, it is necessary to analyze the reasons that prompt (or prompted) one or another group of the Indian population to commit the act of migration. If in the total population of migrants who chose the city as their place of residence in 1991-2001, women numerically slightly predominate (51% versus 49% of men), then when analyzing the geographical distribution of migrants by place of departure, this ratio changes. In this case, the following pattern is observed: the closer the settlement chosen as the future place of residence is to the area of ​​departure of the potential migrant, the greater the share of women in the structure of migrants. That is, Indian men, all other things being equal, are ready to travel to cities and from other states, while women prefer to move mainly within the borders of their state. Depending on the gender of the migrant, the nature of the reasons that prompted the change of residence also changes: if for men the main incentive is the search for a job that can provide their family with a livelihood, then for women social reasons come to the fore - marriage and moving with family. Moreover, this pattern in India does not depend on the population of the city to which migrants come; although there is some correlation between the reasons for moving among men and the population of the city: the more crowded the city is, the more men the search for work comes to the fore. Thus, it is in cities with a population of more than 100 thousand people that all-Indian patterns manifest themselves most clearly.

The macrocephalic nature of Indian cities is also reflected in the distribution of migrants coming to cities depending on the population of the latter. Thus, the 6 largest agglomerations in India in terms of population in 2001, which housed 21.1% of the country’s total urban population, received an average of 19.5% of all migrants heading to the cities (Table 3). Noteworthy is the low share of migrants coming to Kolkata and the high share of migrants coming to Bangalore. Kolkata, known as the “old” center of attraction for migrants, has actually exhausted its resources associated with the ability to receive regular migration flows; the intensity of migration from neighboring Bangladesh has dropped sharply. Bangalore, being the center of India's "Silicon Valley", attracts migrants looking for work to a much greater extent than the leader in population of the South in 2001 - Chennai. India's largest agglomeration by population, Greater Mumbai, receives migrants mainly from other states, while all other agglomerations (with the exception of Greater Delhi, which occupies a special position) receive migrants mainly from “their own state.” Explaining such a pattern for Delhi, which is small in area compared to other administrative divisions, is not difficult, since almost the entire population of the National Capital Territory is urban. Identifying the reasons that determine the ratio between arriving migrants for Greater Mumbai requires a more detailed analysis:

Table 3. The nature of migration in Indian agglomerations with a population of more than 5 million people for the period 1991-2001.

Agglomeration	Migrants “rural-urban” (“city-city”), million people	Share of migrants in the total flow of migrants to the country’s cities, %	Migrants, %
			From “your” state	From other states
B. Mumbai
B. Kolkata
B. Chennai
Greater Hyderabad
B. Bangalore

Compiled by the author according to

Thus, the following pattern is characteristic of Greater Mumbai (Table 4): the closer in time to the 2001 census we analyze the category of migrants, the smaller the proportion in this category will be men (for Delhi, an absolutely opposite picture is observed). Since for men, as it has been shown, the main reason for migration to cities is the search for work, the following conclusion is therefore quite legitimate: Mumbai is losing its economic attractiveness for potential migrants and is losing its until recently leading position in the country (at least in relation to to its closest competitor - Delhi). Since both agglomerations in the structure of immigration flows are characterized by a predominance of migrants from other administrative units, and not from those in which they are located, the following development forecast looks very realistic: the pace of economic development of Mumbai will slow down in relation to its “competitor”; For Mumbai, the period of particularly intensive growth (in all respects) is coming to an end; it is for Delhi that the problem of regulating migration flows in the future will be especially acute.

Table 4. Distribution of immigrants depending on gender and time of settlement in the Mumbai and Delhi agglomerations in 2001, %

	Greater Mumbai		Greater Delhi
Move-in time	men	women	men	women
Less than 1 year
From 1 to 4 years
From 5 to 9 years

Calculated and compiled by the author based on materials:

The nature of migration in the agglomeration of the South of India differs significantly from that in Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata: in the context of the gradual replacement of the second stage of the demographic transition by the third and the further formation of the supporting framework of settlement in the South, the ratio between migrants from villages and cities is increasingly decreasing, approaching an indicator equal to 1. The “push factor” of the rural North and the “attractive factor” of Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata are still stronger than the “push factor” of these agglomerations of incoming migrants. At the same time, the functional development of these agglomerations to some extent prevents the reduction of migration flows directed in their direction. After all, the more different the city and rural areas are in living conditions, the higher the number of poor people from rural areas looking for a “better share” in cities. In this regard, an attempt to artificially reduce rural-urban migration will clearly not be successful, but rather will only lead to an increase in the level of social instability. In this regard, one cannot but agree with the opinion of UN analysts who say that only leveling out differences in living standards in cities and rural areas can help reduce the avalanche-like flow of migrants to cities that developing countries will soon experience.

However, with huge absolute values, over the twenty-year period that passed between the population censuses of 1981 and 2001, there was a steady decrease in the relative values ​​of the contribution of migration (by 0.7%) and especially natural growth (by almost 2%) to the total growth population of Indian cities. At the same time, more and more new cities emerged at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries. centers of attraction for migrants, which, in turn, ensure an increase in their natural increase. During the period between the 1981 and 2001 censuses, almost 2 thousand new cities emerged in India, concentrating, however, only 5% of the urban population. The greatest contribution to this increase was made by the states whose centers are the largest cities in the country - West Bengal, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh. Thus, the Government’s measures aimed at “unloading” the centers of these states can be considered successful. An indirect confirmation of this is the sharp increase in the number of cities in the country in the first decade of the 21st century: the administrative increase was more than 2,800 units, which is almost 1.5 times more than in the previous two decades. However, the movement of the mentioned states along the path of changing the number of cities on their territory over the last decade of the 20th century. was multidirectional. Moreover, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are the leaders in the difference between the number of abolished and created cities. The list also includes the states of Kerala and Gujarat. It is noteworthy that the group of those administrative-territorial units of India that have lost over the last decade of the 21st century. the largest number of cities (compared to the number of acquired ones) included all states of the more developed, both socio-economically and demographically, South India (Table 5). Probably the reason for this is the inclusion of smaller settlements in the zones of influence of larger ones.

Table 5. Changes in the number of cities in some states of India in 1991-2001.

Thus, it can be assumed that in the conditions of the demographic transition that began earlier, in the south of the country there is a complication of the settlement structure, accompanied by agglomeration processes. An absolutely opposite picture is observed in Delhi and the state of Maharashtra, which are leaders in the difference between created and abolished cities. Being the two largest cities in the country by population, the capitals of these administrative-territorial units over time (due to enormous natural and especially mechanical growth) exhaust their ability to accommodate and provide minimal means of subsistence for ever new masses of the population. The positive balance of the process of administrative transformation of urban settlements leads to an urgent need to solve the problem of concentrating the bulk of the population in Mumbai and Delhi through their deconcentration using the potential of new cities in the state of Maharashtra and the National Capital Territory of Delhi. Thus, we can conclude that the development of natural processes of agglomeration on the one hand and, to some extent, the artificial dispersion of the potential of the largest cities through the creation of “additional” smaller settlements on the other, have a similar effect in India.

At the same time, when studying not point objects - cities, but agglomerations of settlements in India, we are faced with the problem that L.I. noted in their joint work a quarter of a century ago. Bonifatiev and V.-R.L. Krisciunas. Indeed, an accurate delimitation of agglomerations in this country “... is impossible due to the lack of data on pendulum migrations of the population and the functional structure of cities in Indian statistics...”. If it were not for this dilemma, then the best result, it seems, could have been given by an analysis of the development of agglomerations from the position of the morphological and functional definition of the latter, put forward in the works of Soviet and Russian urban experts G.M. Lappo, E.N. Pertsika, Yu.L. Pivovarova and others.

However, when analyzing Indian agglomerations, a difficulty arises due to the low migration mobility of the country’s population, as well as the lack of information in census data about the nature of commuting migrations. This forces us to use the term “metropolitan area”, which is close in its meaning to the concept of “agglomeration”, which, when crowded, turn out to be almost identical. Thus, in India, with a minimum population of 20 thousand people, the core or at least one of the constituent cities must have the status of an “established city”. At the same time, the metropolitan area in India may consist of one city (city or town), but it is necessary to have one or more suburban areas associated with it functionally and/or culturally.

It should be noted, however, that for the largest cities in the country, of course, the number of the core of the metropolitan area significantly exceeds the established value of 20 thousand inhabitants. At the same time, despite the fairly high population growth rates of the main cities, the zone adjacent to the core often grows even faster. And this concerns, first of all, the largest metropolitan areas of the country: their core are cities with a population of more than 2 million people, the number of which, according to the 2011 census, is 13.

Table 6. Average annual population growth rates of the largest metropolitan areas of India in 1991-2001.

Agglomeration	Average annual population growth rate (1991-2001), %
	Core	Adjacent area
Bangalore
Ahmedabad
Hyderabad

Calculated and compiled by the author according to

Indicated in the table. The 6 largest metropolitan areas by population concentrate about a third of the total urban population of the country and are mainly the centers of administrative-territorial units of India of the first rank (including the Delhi Capital Territory). However, some states are characterized by a broader development of the upper levels of the population settlement structure than others: in Maharashtra, in addition to the administrative center, there are two more areas with a population of more than 2 million people (in the immediate vicinity of Mumbai - Pune, as well as in the eastern part of the state – Nagpur). A similar situation is also observed in the states of Gujarat (the areas of Ahmedabad and Surat) and Uttar Pradesh (which are, in fact, a single conurbation of the areas of Lucknow and Kanpur).

Thus, two unique rays of an increased number of the largest metropolitan areas extend from the capital of the country: the first - towards Mumbai and Pune to Bangalore (due to the high level of economic development) and the second - to Kanpur and Lucknow (due to the extremely high population in the corresponding administrative-territorial units). This pattern, based on the analysis of statistical data, is confirmed by cartographic materials. The consequence of such a distribution will be the formation for some of them of unified (socialized) spaces based on the country’s transport routes. Thus, it is legitimate to talk about the occurrence of suburban processes on the territory of modern India.

At the same time, the possible development of the latter will lead to the need to reorganize real estate in the cores of agglomerations in the conditions of its functional reorientation. In particular, this situation will be typical for the largest metropolitan areas of the country with a population of more than 5 million people, which can become (and some already are) unique “condensation nuclei”, which, concentrating huge human resources, contribute to the development of knowledge-intensive industries here , as well as the service sector. The earliest “decline of the era” of labor-intensive industries that do not require highly qualified specialists began in the South of India with its later stage of demographic transition. Temporarily, the leader here was Chennai, which, however, is now increasingly losing its leading position to Hyderabad and especially Bangalore. The latter is the country's largest soft-industry hub and currently has the second-highest GDP growth rate in the metro area of ​​India at 11.5% since the 2001 census.

However, such achievements could not be achieved only by a large number of people living within the boundaries of these areas. A significant proportion of qualified specialists either received their education at the universities of Bangalore, Hyderabad and Chennai, or came here from neighboring districts and states. Thus, analyzing the composition of migration flows directed towards Bangalore and Hyderabad, we find that among migrants living within the areas formed on their basis, the main purpose of arrival was family circumstances (most often, the wife’s move to her husband living here) and getting a job . However, for migrants who are urban residents, education and commercial activities come to the fore.

However, migration flows into India's largest areas vary in their contribution to their overall population growth.

As can be seen from table. 7, migration growth is of greatest importance for population growth in the agglomerations of the South of the country. Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad are examples of relatively new centers for which the ratio of “attractive” and “repulsive” factors looks most optimal at this stage of development of productive forces when attracting migrants from other parts of the country.

Table 7. Ratio of natural and migration growth in the total urban population growth of the largest metropolitan areas of India

Compiled by the author according to

A similar situation is typical for the capital of the country, Delhi, which, as shown above, is the most attractive for migrants compared to Mumbai and Kolkata. The latter is still growing due to migration growth, but this situation is rather an exception. The intensity of migration flows from Bangladesh to India, of course, is no longer as high as during the division of British India and subsequently Pakistan, but West Bengal, with its capital in Kolkata, is still experiencing demographic pressure from neighboring Bangladesh. In the absence of such a phenomenon, the relationship between natural and migration growth in Kolkata and Mumbai should be very similar. Mumbai is losing its attractiveness for potential migrants compared to its “competitor” Delhi. At the same time, the zone adjacent to the core of Delhi’s metropolitan area is clearly growing faster than the country’s capital. According to demographers' forecasts, Faridabad and Ghaziabad, which are essentially part of the Delhi area, for the period from 2006 to 2020. In terms of average annual population growth rates, they will occupy eighth and second places, respectively, in the world rankings.

However, the growth of areas adjacent to Delhi's core is by no means uniform. This applies, in general, to the supra-glomerational structure identified on the territory of India, the development of which occurs along the line Amritsar - Delhi - Agra. The main role in this process is played by the south-eastern vector with the direction to the main cities of Uttar Pradesh - Agra, as well as later Kanpur and Lucknow.

Mumbai, compared to Delhi, has somewhat limited growth prospects in the territorial aspect, which is explained, first of all, by its geographical location on the coast. This is confirmed by comparable values ​​of the average annual population growth rates of the core and adjacent zone of Mumbai. In this regard, the main directions of growth of the Mumbai metropolitan area are north and south-southeast towards the southern mega-region of the country emerging along the Bangalore - Coimbatore - Madurai line.

Such a large-scale development of the supra-glomeration structure based on Mumbai in comparison with that for Delhi (with less favorable territorial prerequisites for the first of them) is explained, first of all, by the role of these cities in the development of the country's economy. Mumbai has firmly established its status as the “gateway to India” since the days of the English East India Company, while the heyday of modern Delhi began only with the transfer of the capital here from Kolkata (at that time Calcutta) in 1911-1912. In this regard, taking into account the “temporary gain” of Mumbai, the development of the Delhi agglomeration is of a “catch-up” nature.

Thus, in fact, we observe the following pattern: the earlier the process of urbanization began within any territory (in this case, when considering metropolitan areas, we mean the time of their inclusion in active economic activity within the entire country), the greater the importance in the structure the natural component will play a role in its population growth. Taking into account the recommendations put forward when analyzing the growth rate of individual parts of the country’s largest agglomerations, it should be noted that for the “older” centers - Mumbai, Kolkata and, to some extent, Delhi - in the near future the problem of regulating migration flows directed to these agglomerations will not have of decisive importance. However, if for Mumbai and Kolkata it is quite natural that in the near future there will be a decrease in the population of the core, then for Delhi this situation will occur somewhat later. However, at this stage of development of Indian society, population growth in cities and metropolitan areas will continue. It will be carried out in somewhat different directions, but in the future it will be the zone adjacent to the core that will become the concentration of the bulk of the population. In this regard, the problem of implementing government programs to provide the suburban areas of the country’s largest areas with the necessary conditions for living there by the poor, who will choose these territories as their place of residence as the process of urbanization in India develops “in breadth” and “in depth,” is especially acute.

(date of access: 06/18/2012). Gorokhov S.A., Dmitriev R.V. Paradoxes of urbanization of modern India // Geography at school. 2009. No. 2. P. 17-23; No. 3, pp. 24-28.
Dmitriev R.V. Mechanical movement as the most important factor in changing the population of territorial units of India // Organization of territory: statics, dynamics, management: materials of the V All-Russian scientific and practical conference / BSPU im. M. Akmully, Bashstat, UC RAS. – Ufa, BSPU, 2008. – 140 p.
Dmitriev R.V. The influence of migration on changes in the population of territorial entities of modern India // collection. Scientific works of the Faculty of Geography. – M.: MPGU, 2007. - 84 p.
Bhagat R.B. Urban Growth by City and Town Size in India. – Mumbai: International Institute for Population Size, 2005
Martin D., Deligiorgis D., Fuersich K. et al. World population 2007. Harnessing the potential of urbanization. Report of the United Nations Population Fund. – New York, 2007
N.K., Kulkarni S., Raghavaswamy V. Economy, Population and Urban Sprawl. A Comparative Study of Urban Agglomerations of Bangalore and Hyderabad. Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques. – Nairobi, 2007. – P. 21-22
Dmitriev R.V. The role of supra-glomerational structures in the formation of the supporting framework of Indian settlement: Author's abstract. dis. ...cand. geogr. Sci. – M., 2011. – 19 p.
Ibid.

“Determination of the demographic situation and features of demographic policy in different countries and regions”

Goals of work:

Educational: systematize knowledge about demographic policy in countries with different types of reproduction;

Developmental: develop the ability to systematize acquired knowledge from various sources of geographic information, organize, evaluate and adjust one’s own activities;

Educational: to instill responsibility, hard work, accuracy.

List of tools used to perform the work: political map of the world, age-sex pyramids, atlas, textbook “Economic and Social Geography of the World.”

Basic theoretical information:

Population reproduction is the total process of fertility, mortality, and natural population growth, which ensures the continuous renewal of human generations. In the modern world, two types of population reproduction can be distinguished. 1 type characterized by low birth rates, deaths and natural population growth, Type 2 characterized by high birth rates, high natural population growth and relatively low mortality rates.

Currently, there is a gradual transition from type 2 to type 1 of population reproduction.

In the modern world, most countries seek to manage population reproduction by pursuing certain demographic policies.

Demographic policy is a system of various measures taken by the state in order to influence the natural movement of the population in the direction it desires.

Stages of work:

Exercise 1. Using the textbook by Maksakovsky V.P. (pp. 57 - 66 and statistical data in Table 1 (see below), fill it out, determining the type of reproduction and demographic stage for each region;

Table 1 - Main indicators of population reproduction by region of the world.

Regions of the world	Fertility rate (‰)	Mortality rate (‰)	Natural increase rate (‰)	Reproduction type	Demographic stage
The whole world
CIS			-1
Foreign Europe
Foreign Asia
Southwest Asia
East Asia
Africa
North America
Latin America
Australia
Oceania

Task 2. Characterize the demographic situation in India and Germany according to the following plan:

Record the population, average density, and areas with the highest population density in the country.

Plot the areas with the highest population density on an outline map.

Determine the features of natural and mechanical population growth in the country.

Determine the characteristics of the age and sex composition of the population in the country.

Determine and record the uniqueness of population employment, the share of urban and rural population.

Determine the country's supply of labor resources.

Formulate a conclusion about the demographic policy pursued by the states of India and Germany.

The most important tool for long-term forecasting of socio-economic social development is planning and analysis population growth. This indicator is most often used to calculate the size of its labor resources, including the volume of needs for them.

When analyzing the state demographic situation, two main indicators are used:

• Mechanical (migration) increase,
• Natural growth.

Shows the difference between the number of deaths and births of people over the period of time under consideration.

For maximum data accuracy, statistics are used in calculations, which make it possible to track the slightest changes. Special statistical bodies constantly monitor birth and death rates, which have a documentary basis.

Population growth formula

Population growth is determined summing up two indicators:

• The rate of natural increase, which is the difference between the birth rate and death rate for a certain period;
• An indicator of migration growth, reflecting the difference between the number of people arriving in a certain territory and the number of people leaving during the period under review.

Population growth is the difference between the current level of the demographic situation and the level of an earlier period.

The unit of account can be a period of time of a long-term (from 5 to 100 years) and short-term (from several days to 3 - 5 years) nature.

Formula for natural population growth

Natural increase is the difference between births and deaths of citizens. Moreover, if the birth rate is higher than the death rate, then we can talk about expanded population reproduction. If the mortality rate is higher than the birth rate, then there is a demographic decline and narrowed population reproduction.

There is an absolute and relative formula for natural population growth.

Formula for natural population growth in absolute terms can be determined by subtracting the end and beginning of the period from the reproduction volume.

This formula looks like this:

EP = P – C

Here EP is natural increase,

P – number of people born,

C – number of dead people.

Relative assessment of natural increase is carried out by calculating coefficients. In this case, the absolute value is the total number of inhabitants. The formula for natural population growth in relative terms is calculated as the difference between born and deceased citizens over a certain period (that is, the absolute value of natural growth). This difference is then divided by the total population.

Potn. = Pubs. / CHN

Potn here. – relative indicator of natural population growth,

Pubs. – absolute indicator of population growth, calculated as the difference between people born and deaths),

PN – population size.

Examples of problem solving

EXAMPLE 1

Exercise	At the beginning of the year, there were 50,000 thousand people in the state. At the same time, during the year the birth rate was 1,000 thousand people, and the death rate was 800 thousand people. Determine the absolute and relative rate of population growth.
Solution	The formula for natural population growth (in absolute value) will be the difference between births and deaths of citizens per year: Pubs. = P – C Pubs. = 1,000 – 800 = 200 thousand people We calculate the relative population growth rate using the following formula: Potn. = Pubs. / CHN Potn. = 200 / 50,000 = 0.004 (that is, 0.4%) Conclusion. We see that the natural increase amounted to 200 thousand people or 0.4% of the total population.
Answer	Pubs. = 200 thousand people, P rel. = 0.4%

Introduction

1. Economic essence of population statistics

1.2 Types of population groups

1.3 The concept of mechanical and natural movement of the population

1.4 General characteristics of population movements in Russia

2. Population analysis

2.1 Research methods used in population statistics

2.3 Calculation and analysis of indicators of population dynamics in Russia for 2000-2005.

2.4 Population forecast for 2007-2009

3. Purpose of demographic forecasting

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

One of the most important problems of demography is population movement. This is a complex social process that affects many socio-economic aspects of the life of the population.

The movement changes the structure and size of the population. Migration flows (mechanical movement of the population) rush from one region and country to another. Migration provides undoubted advantages to countries and regions that receive and supply labor, but sometimes has an extremely negative impact on the economic and social situation of the country.

Many processes in human life are associated with population migration: resettlement, development of new lands, redistribution of labor resources between cities, regions, and countries.

Natural movement influences the demographic situation through processes such as fertility and mortality.

Governments of countries pay considerable attention to their regulation and stimulation (and sometimes restriction). They are studied by a number of sciences, such as demography, statistics, and economics.

The purpose of this work is to consider the very concepts of mechanical and natural movement of the population, to determine the features of this phenomenon for Russia: main trends, problems.

The objectives of this work are:

Study of the demographic situation in Russia;

Analysis of identified problems;

Dynamics of population changes and forecast for 2009.

The relevance of this problem in our country is very great - as a result of the 2003 census, it turned out that the process of population decline in the Russian Federation continues.

Neither natural nor migration growth can even stabilize this unfavorable process for our country, not to mention positive population growth. The situation is such that it may be possible to maintain at least some acceptable level of the country’s population and production level only through the intensive involvement of foreign labor.

The events of recent decades have greatly changed the political and social situation in Russia. The more acute the problem of mechanical movement of the population becomes. Migration flows, poorly regulated due to the lack of a well-thought-out legislative framework to limit them, cause great harm to the state - the crime situation worsens, and currency is exported abroad. Labor migration is also a very interesting issue at the moment.

It is labor migration that can make up for Russia's lack of human resources (not counting, of course, possible immigration to the Russian Federation from the CIS countries).

All these issues are very important, and this paper will examine the current situation related to population movement.

The subject of study is indicators of fertility, mortality, life expectancy, marriages and divorces, general population movement, etc.

The object of the study is the Russian Federation.

The work used calculations of indicators of time series and regression analysis.

1. Economic essence

1.1 Objectives of population statistics

Population, as a subject of study in statistics, is a collection of people living in a certain territory and continuously renewed through births and deaths. The population of any state is very heterogeneous in composition and variable over time, therefore the patterns of population development, changes in its composition and many other characteristics must be studied taking into account specific historical conditions.

In population statistics, the unit of observation is most often the individual, but it can also be the family. In 1994, when conducting a microcensus in Russia, for the first time not only the family, but also the household was taken into account (as is customary in international practice). Unlike a family, a household is understood as people living together and leading a common household (not necessarily relatives). A household, unlike a family, can also consist of one person who provides for himself financially.

The main characteristics of the population composition that are significant from the point of view of social processes include: education, qualifications, position held, profession, belonging to sectors of the economy, and others. Grouping the population according to sources of livelihood, property relations, and economic burden in the family is of great importance. Social differentiation is revealed by demographic (gender, age, marital status, family composition) and ethnic (nationality, language) characteristics. To solve many social problems, population groups are needed that unite rural residents, city dwellers, and residents of large cities.

The main source of statistical data are current records and one-time observations in the form of complete or sample censuses. Moreover, the primary source of information about the population is censuses. They provide the most complete and accurate information about the population. Current records of births, deaths, arrivals and departures from a given territory make it possible to determine the population size annually based on the results of the latest census.

Population censuses examine the following questions:

· number and distribution of the population across the country, by urban and rural types of population, population migration;

· population structure by gender, age, marital status and marital status;

· population structure by nationality, native and spoken language, and citizenship;

· distribution of the population by level of education, by sources of livelihood, by sectors of the national economy, by occupation and position in employment;

· social characteristics of the population;

· birth rate;

· living conditions of the population.

In the Russian Federation, the legal basis for conducting population censuses is government decrees, specifically adopted upon the proposal of statistical authorities some time before each census, sometimes several years, sometimes months. The State Duma adopted the draft Federal Law “On the All-Russian Population Census” on December 28, 2001.

In the intervals between censuses, to obtain important data on demographic and social processes occurring in society, sample surveys (microcensuses) are usually carried out, covering 5% of the resident population.

The published results of censuses and micro-censuses provide data for the country as a whole, for regions, territories, autonomous republics, urban and rural populations. Thus, information on the composition of the population is updated every five years. In addition, the most important characteristics are calculated at the beginning of each year of the intercensal period. They are obtained by adjusting census data to take into account current changes (births, deaths, changes of residence).

As valuable as this information is, there are formidable barriers to its effective use. The difficulty lies in the fact that there are two autonomous data sets: 1) about the composition of the population; 2) on the production and consumption of various types of social services and consumer goods. The main thing is missing - their docking. It remains unknown how different groups of the population behave as consumers.

There is only one way to solve the problem - conducting special sample surveys, where data on consumption and personal characteristics of the respondents would be combined at the individual level. This approach in state statistics is implemented in the form of a current survey of family budgets of the population. With their help, issues of food consumption and some other components of the consumer budget are successfully studied.

In addition, one-time examinations are carried out as necessary. They are carried out by state statistics services and other organizations and relate to the most pressing problems of consumption and development of infrastructure sectors. Whatever issues such partial surveys concern, their organization, conduct and use of the results require at least general information about the structure of the population of a particular territory.

Such an information base consists of population census materials and calculated data obtained on their basis for the years of the intercensus period. All data on the composition of the population provided by censuses turns out to be the basis for social research; Moreover, each social problem is associated with a specific list of characteristics of the population composition.

Over time, not only the composition of the population changes, but also the principles and methods of studying it. Currently, the principles of population statistics are approaching the international standard.

1.2 Types of population groups

Such a complex population as a population, the individual elements of which have many varying characteristics, cannot be studied without dividing it into separate groups and subgroups. Various types of population groups give an idea of ​​its composition according to different indicators.

First of all, this process is associated with the action of general methodological principles - typological, structural, analytical. Several principles can be noted that are important when constructing population groups:

· the most detailed list of groups is appropriate if this characteristic is presented independently, without combination with other characteristics (by age, by profession with a detailed list of professions);

· in the case of combinational groupings, enlarged intervals are used to avoid excessive crushing of the material;

· some characteristics are used as cross-cutting ones, i.e. they participate in almost all combinational groupings of the population. These are gender, age, education, as well as the division of the population into urban and rural;

· in the distribution rows, the values ​​of attribute characteristics are given, if possible, in a ranked sequence;

· to ensure comparability of data, grouping schemes of previous population censuses are preserved, as far as possible and appropriate, or they are presented in a form convenient for comparison by enlarging intervals;

· uniform groupings are used when developing data for different territories of the country;

· if the administrative boundaries of any territory have changed since the previous census, information about this is given in the form of a note, and the information is provided in two versions - in terms of unified boundaries and within the boundaries of the corresponding years.

Among the groupings in population statistics, the most prominent are purely demographic ones, which include population groupings by gender, age, marital status, and nationality.

Grouping the population by gender makes it possible to determine the number and proportion of men and women in the total population. This grouping is more interesting for individual regions and districts. Data on gender composition given by territory give an idea of ​​the uniform or uneven ratio of men and women in certain regions of the country. In turn, this ratio often depends on the production direction of the region’s economy. For example, in areas where industries such as coal, oil, and metallurgy predominate, the proportion of men is usually higher than in areas where light or textile industries are more developed.

Grouping by gender is necessarily given in combination with other grouping characteristics (age, social status, education).

Grouping the population by age is also one of the main and most important in population statistics. Age intervals are usually presented in the following variants: one-year, five-year and ten-year. There are groups of people under working age, working age and older than working age.

Grouping by age is constructed both for the entire population, and for men and women, for urban and rural populations, etc.

In any state, people of different nationalities live, therefore, when developing census materials, as a rule, the distribution of the population by national composition is given.

When studying the national composition of the population, the language used by individual nationalities is usually taken into account. So, for example, when developing materials for the micro-census of the population of Russia in 1994, they determined how many people out of 1000 people of each nationality use the language of their nationality and how many use Russian: at home, in an educational (preschool) institution, at work.

Grouping the population by marital status is important in population statistics.

Census materials on this issue may be developed in different ways. Sometimes the number of married and unmarried persons is simply determined. With this division, the last group unites the widowed, the divorced, and those who have not yet married, i.e. this group is very heterogeneous in its composition. A more complete and correct idea of ​​the family status is given by a grouping that distinguishes persons: never married, married (including registered and unregistered), widowed, divorced, separated. These subgroups are distinguished separately for men and women of different age groups, starting from 16 years.

In addition to the purely demographic groupings listed above, statistics develop a number of groupings based on other indicators both for the entire population as a whole and for its individual contingents.

Thus, among people of working age, the number of people employed in the economy and the unemployed is determined first of all.

Grouping the population according to their sources of livelihood is important. On the basis of this grouping in Soviet statistics, a grouping of the population by social status was built, in which, since 1939, the following social groups were distinguished: workers and employees; collective farm peasantry and cooperative artisans; individual peasants and non-cooperative artisans. This group covered the entire population.

In the context of the transition to market relations, such a grouping of the population by social status, naturally, cannot be considered sufficient. It is being finalized, and at present these data are not published in the official statistical yearbook.

When developing population census materials, much attention is paid to characterizing the level of education of the entire population and the employed. The results of the census provide a distribution of all (aged 15 years and older) and employed people into the following groups of educational levels: higher, incomplete higher, specialized secondary, general secondary, incomplete secondary.

The population by level of education is distributed separately for urban and rural populations, for men and women, for individual nationalities, for the employed population, for individual sectors of the economy and occupations.

1.3 The concept of mechanical and natural movement of the population

Under natural population movement understand demographic events that naturally affect population size. These events include births, deaths, marriages and divorces.

Natural movement can also be defined as a natural regulator of the biological process of all life on Earth, including humans, manifested through such indicators as fertility, mortality, natural growth (determined by the difference between fertility and mortality).

These indicators determine the total population of the country as a whole. In the context of individual regions, natural and mechanical growth can have different effects on changes in the total population of the country and territory. As a rule, in areas of pioneer development, mechanical influx at the initial stage of the formation of industrial hubs and territorial production complexes play a greater role than natural growth in population changes. In old industrial areas, natural growth plays a dominant role.

Among the factors determining fertility and mortality are the following:

1) Sex and age structure of the population.

2) Marriages and divorces.

3) Regional and national traditions.

4) Standard of living of the population:

– cash income and expenses of the population;

– production of consumer goods;

– provision of permanent work;

– development of the healthcare system;

– provision of housing;

- the level of education.

5) Environmental situation.

6) Ability to bear children.

The listed factors are considered in time and space. The degree of their influence varies.

Under mechanical movement population refers to population migration, both voluntary and forced.

In a broad sense, migration (from the Latin migratio - relocation) is understood as any territorial movement of people.

In a narrow sense, migration is the movement of people across the borders of certain territories with a change of place of residence forever or for a more or less long time. Persons taking part in the migration movement of the population are called migrants.

When analyzing population migration, it is classified according to a number of characteristics:

1. Depending on the nature of border crossing:

1) Internal - within one country between administrative or economic-geographical regions, settlements (migration from city to city, from village to village, from city to village, from village to city).

2) External – associated with crossing the state border. External migration includes emigration and immigration.

Emigration(from Latin emigro - moving out, moving), relocation (voluntary or forced, spontaneous or organized) to another country for permanent or temporary (long-term) residence, in most cases with a change of citizenship.

Immigration(from Latin immigro - moving in), entry (moving in) into the country for permanent or temporary (usually long-term) residence of citizens of another country, mostly with the acquisition of new citizenship.

External migration can also be divided into intracontinental and intercontinental.

2. Depending on temporary signs:

1) Constant.

2) Temporary.

3) Seasonal - temporary, annual movements of people (for example, summer migration to resort areas).

4) Pendulum - regular movements of the population from one locality to another to work or study and back.

3. Classification according to forms of implementation:

1) Organized.

2) Spontaneous.

4. Depending on the nature of the reasons for migration:

1) Political.

2) Economic.

3) Social.

5. Depending on the measures taken by the state

1) Voluntary.

2) Forced (forced) – movement of people that occurs for reasons beyond their control.

Labor migration has the greatest impact on the development of society. It covers the working age population and is sometimes called labor migration.

When talking about migration, one cannot fail to mention the “Brain Drain”. This term has become widespread in our country relatively recently. “Brain drain” is a complex process related to various branches of science: demography, sociology, economics, geopolitics.

Migration of specialists has different consequences for countries than migration of unskilled workers. Migration of unskilled workers is quite favorable for the donor country, as it allows to reduce unemployment and associated social costs and expenses, and emigrants, by sending part of their earnings to their homeland or bringing it home upon return, thereby supply the domestic economy with foreign exchange resources.

When scientists and specialists, skilled workers and engineering personnel emigrate, the donor country ends up losing. It loses all the capital costs invested in training these personnel. The domestic market is losing its intellectual elite and creative potential.

Among the emigrants, young people aged 30 to 40 predominate, on the one hand, who have already proven themselves to be extraordinary researchers and developers, and on the other hand, who have the age reserve to realize their creative potential. They make up more than 50% of all persons leaving this contingent. In addition, young people who envision the possibility of leaving Russia to improve their education and skills often postpone having children, which naturally leads to a decrease in the birth rate.

Specialties whose holders have the best chance of finding a successful placement abroad (%):

· Physicists 68

Mathematics 60

· Computer specialists 46

· Programmers 42

· Genetics 24

· Chemists 23

· Biologists 19

· Doctors 10

· Philologists 7

· Lawyers 5

· Philosophers and sociologists 3

· Economists 1

There is no effective legislation regulating intellectual property relations in Russia yet. For this reason, many inventions and specialists flowed abroad. According to official data alone, which is available to the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Russian Federation, about 8 thousand Russian scientists work in more than 40 scientific programs of the Pentagon and the US Department of Energy. In this case, Russian equipment is used, as well as the results of intellectual activity obtained in previous years.

Migration is influenced by many factors. Migration factors are a set of objective and subjective reasons that influence the decision to migrate. In modern conditions, the most common classification is one that distinguishes migration factors into economic and non-economic reasons. Assessing the feasibility of migration depends on the individual characteristics of migrants, regional factors, national

policies of the country of origin, from the corresponding characteristics of the country of destination, comparing which a person makes a decision to migrate, acting under the influence of the social environment in which he works.

The most important socio-economic function of population migration is ensuring the mobility of the population and its territorial redistribution. It contributes to a more complete use of labor and increased production.

At the same time, population migration has a significant impact on the balance of the labor market, changes the economic and social situation of the population, and is often accompanied by an increase in educational and professional training, and an expansion of the needs of people participating in migration.

The massive influx of migrants may cause increased unemployment and strong pressure on social infrastructure. Local governments cannot always cope with the influx of people; problems arise with housing, healthcare, and the criminal situation may not change for the better. This is how migration affects the standard of living of indigenous people.

Speaking about migration, one cannot fail to mention such a category of the population as refugees. Forced migration is one of the problems of our time. According to the UN, by the beginning of 2005 there were about 20 million refugees in the world. National governments, international and intergovernmental, as well as non-governmental organizations are involved in solving this problem.

The Federal Law “On Refugees” gives the following definition of the word “refugee” - a person who is not a citizen of the Russian Federation and who, due to a well-founded fear of becoming a victim of persecution based on race, religion, citizenship, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political is of conviction outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or, being of no nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or unwilling to return to it owing to such fear.

The heterogeneity of refugees suggests dividing them into two groups:

1. Temporary transit, intending to return to their place of previous residence.

2. Irrevocable, involving settlement on the territory of Russia.

A forced migrant is a citizen of the Russian Federation who left his place of residence as a result of violence or other forms of persecution committed against him or his family members, or due to a real danger of being persecuted on the basis of race or nationality, religion, language, as well as on the basis of belonging to a certain group. social group or political convictions that became the grounds for hostile campaigns against a specific person or group of people, mass violations of public order.

A foreign citizen or a stateless person permanently residing legally on the territory of Russia can also be recognized as a forced migrant.

1.4 General characteristics of population movements in Russia

In terms of population, Russia ranks seventh in the world. In 2008, our country had a population of 142.008 million people. Moreover, over the 19 years since the 1989 census, the population has decreased by 5 million people (including in urban settlements - by 4.2 million people, in rural areas - by 0.8 million people).

Let's analyze population movements based on data from the Demographic Yearbook of Russia for 2003.

75% of the natural population decline is compensated by migration; in terms of its volume, Russia ranks third in the world. According to this indicator, we are second only to the USA and Germany. The overwhelming majority (three quarters) of migrants are Russian-speaking people from CIS countries.

The ratio of urban and rural population in the Russian Federation remained at the 1989 level and amounted to 73% to 27%. Moreover, approximately a fifth of the townspeople live in millionaire cities, of which there are 13 in Russia.

80% of Russia's population - 116 million people - are Russian. Six peoples have crossed the million mark: Tatars, Ukrainians, Chechens, Bashkirs, Chuvashs and Armenians.

In general (Fig. 12-18 Appendix), experts describe the demographic situation in the country as favorable. There are 89 million citizens of working age. At the same time, 26.3 million are under working age, and 29.8 million are older. By 2010, according to experts, the population will decrease to 138 million people, and the numerical level of the working-age population will fall below the critical level.

The number of unregistered marriages has doubled compared to the previous census - from 5% to 10%. More than a third of all children live in such families. The average age of the father increased to 26.2 years, and of the mother to 25.5, while previously there were two children per woman, but now there are only 1.3.

The number of people who have never been married or divorced has increased by 40%. The number of divorced marriages is 800 thousand per year compared to 583 thousand in 1989. More than a third of marriages break up after lasting less than five years.

According to census data, there are 67.6 million men and 77.6 million women living in Russia, that is, there are 1,147 women per 1,000 men (1,140 in 1989). The predominance of women begins at the age of 33, the average age was 37.7 years.

The main reason for the decline in the number of Russians is the steady natural population decline.

The trend towards natural population decline raises serious concerns. So that the country does not fear for its future, each woman should have at least two and a half children. In Russia this figure is 2 times less.

As a result of the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births, the population of Russia decreased in 1992-2003 by 9.6 million people, or 6.4% (for example, in 1980-1991, on the contrary, it increased as a result of the excess of the number of births over the number deaths by 8.4 million people, that is, by 6.1%).

Migration growth in Russia was particularly intense in the mid-1990s, but even at that time the natural decline was not fully compensated.

Over the entire period of population decline, the registered migration increase amounted to 3.5 million people, that is, 2.3% (for the period from 1980 to 1991 - 2.0 million people, or 1.5%).

The natural decline intensified in the late 1990s. In 2000, it reached 953.7 thousand people, which is -6.6 per 1000 permanent population. By 2003, natural decline decreased to 887.1 thousand people, in 2001 - by 10.4 thousand people (1.1%), in 2002 - by 8.5 thousand people (0.9%), in 2003 - by 48.2 thousand people, that is, 5.2%!

However, after a slight increase in 2002, the downward trend in migration population growth resumed.

In 2001, it amounted to 72.3 thousand people, or 0.5 per 1000 population (213.6 thousand people (1.5 per 1000 population) in the previous year, 2000). Below this, the migration growth of Russia's population over the past 27 years (before that, Russia was losing population in migration exchanges with the Union republics) was only in 1991 (51.6 thousand people) and 1980 (63.4 thousand people, respectively).

In 2002, migration growth, however, increased slightly, amounting to 77.9 thousand people (0.54 per 1000 population), but 2003 was characterized by a rapid reduction in the registered migration growth of the population. It decreased by 2.2 times, amounting to 35.1 thousand people, that is, 0.25 per 1000 people. (Data for January-February 2003 are presented in Table 1 of the Appendix).

Population trends in Russian regions are still very heterogeneous:

In some regions the population is growing due to both natural and migration growth (Nenets, Khanty-Mansiysk, Yamalo-Nenets), while in many others it is declining as a result of both natural decline and migration outflow.

Some regions (the republics of Sakha (Yakutia), Tyva, Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria, Kalmykia; Chukotka, Evenki Autonomous Okrugs) while maintaining natural growth are characterized by migration outflow of the population. In most European regions, the migration influx to one degree or another compensates for the natural population decline.

In 2003, natural growth was observed in only 16 Russian regions. It was highest in the Chechen Republic (1.9%), as well as in the republics of Ingushetia and Dagestan (1.1% each); in other regions the natural increase was 0.8% or lower.

In 41 regions, the intensity of natural population decline exceeded the Russian average level, and in 16 of them it exceeded 1%, and in the Pskov, Tula, Tver and Novgorod regions - 1.4%.

The highest migration growth in the past year was in the Moscow and Leningrad regions (0.9% and 0.8%, respectively). The third place in this classification is occupied by the Belgorod region (0.7%), followed by Moscow (about 0.5%) and the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug (0.4%).

Migration outflow turned out to be characteristic of Chukotka (3.5%), Magadan region, Taimyr and Evenki Autonomous Okrugs (in the latter it was 1.2%, 1.9%).

In total, 129.1 thousand immigrants were registered in 2003, while in 2002 this figure was 184.6 thousand people. That is, in 2003, 55.5 thousand people (30.0%) less came to Russia than in 2002. These were mainly immigrants from the CIS and Baltic countries (more than 94%).

94.0 thousand people left the country in 2003, which is 12.7 thousand people, or 11.9% less than in 2002 (in 2002 the number of emigrants was 106.7 thousand people).

The number of emigrants from Russia heading outside the CIS and Baltic countries in recent years has become equal to the number leaving for the CIS and Baltic countries.

The intensity of interregional migration can be judged by the number of arrivals and departures per 1000 population.

In 51 regions, the intensity of entry in 2003 was higher than the national average - 14.9 per 1000 population. It was highest (30 entrants per 1000 population) in the Magadan and Amur regions, the Yamalo-Nenets, Khanty-Mansiysk and Chukotka Autonomous Okrugs, and in the Republic of Khakassia.

These same regions had high attrition rates. The highest number of departures (more than 60 departures per 1000 population) was registered in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. In the Magadan region it approached 50, in the Republic of Kalmykia, Taimyr and Koryak autonomous districts, Amur region - 32-34, in the Republic of Khakassia, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) - about 28.

The intensity of internal migration increased slightly in 2003. The number of migrants moving within Russia amounted to 2039.0 thousand people, which is 21.7 thousand people, or 1.1% more than in 2002.

Internal movements are more seasonal than external migration. The largest number of recorded movements occurs in September-October, the smallest – in May.

2. Population analysis

2.1 Research methods used in population statistics

Over time, not only the composition of the population changes, but also the principles and methods of studying it. In the mid-90s. The social class grouping of the population has been radically changed. For many years, our country adopted the following list of main social groups: workers, office employees and collective farmers. Currently, the grouping is based on the characteristic “occupation status” (employment, member of a cooperative, employer, etc.), which is more consistent with international practice and the previous experience of Russian statistics. For example, when developing the results of the 1926 population census, groups were distinguished: workers, employees, owners with hired workers, owners without hired workers, persons of liberal professions, unemployed, pensioners, etc.

Method in the most general sense means a way to achieve a goal, regulate activity. The method of concrete science is a set of techniques for theoretical and practical knowledge of reality. For an independent science, it is necessary not only to have a subject of research that is different from other sciences, but also to have its own methods for studying this subject. The set of research methods used in any science is methodology this science.

Since population statistics are sectoral statistics, the basis of its methodology is statistical methodology.

The most important method included in statistical methodology is obtaining information about the processes and phenomena being studied - statistical observation . It serves as the basis for collecting data both in current statistics and during censuses, monographic and sample studies of the population. Here is the full use of the provisions of theoretical statistics on establishing the object of the observation unit, introducing concepts about the date and moment of registration, the program, organizational issues of observation, systematization and publication of its results. The statistical methodology also includes the principle of independence in assigning each person enumerated to a specific group - the principle of self-determination.

The next stage of statistical study of socio-economic phenomena is the determination of their structure, i.e. identifying the parts and elements that make up the totality. We are talking about the method of groupings and classifications, which in population statistics are called typological and structural.

To understand the structure of the population, it is necessary, first of all, to identify the characteristics of grouping and classification. Any sign that has been observed can also serve as a grouping sign. For example, based on the question of attitude towards the person recorded first on the census form, it is possible to determine the structure of the census population, where it seems likely to identify a significant number of groups. This characteristic is attributive, therefore, when developing census forms based on it, it is necessary to draw up in advance a list of classifications (groupings by attributive characteristics) needed for analysis. When compiling classifications with a large number of attribute records, assignment to certain groups is justified in advance. Thus, according to their occupation, the population is divided into several thousand species, which statistics reduce into certain classes, which is recorded in the so-called dictionary of occupations.

When studying the structure based on quantitative characteristics, it becomes possible to use such statistical generalizing indicators as mean, mode and median, distance measures or indicators of variation to characterize different parameters of the population. The structures of phenomena under consideration serve as the basis for studying the connections in them. In the theory of statistics, functional and statistical connections are distinguished. The study of the latter is impossible without dividing the population into groups and then comparing the value of the resulting characteristic.

Grouping by factor attribute and comparison with changes in the resultant attribute allows us to establish the direction of the connection: is it direct or inverse, as well as give an idea of ​​its form broken regression . These groupings make it possible to construct a system of equations necessary to find regression equation parameters and determining the strength of the connection by calculating correlation coefficients. Groupings and classifications serve as the basis for the use of variance analysis of relationships between indicators of population movement and the factors that cause them.

Statistical methods are widely used in population studies dynamics research , graphic study of phenomena , index , selective And balance . We can say that population statistics uses the entire arsenal of statistical methods and examples to study its object. In addition, methods developed only for studying the population are also used. These are the methods real generation (cohort) And conventional generation . The first allows us to consider changes in the natural movement of peers (born in the same year) - longitudinal analysis; the second considers the natural movement of peers (living at the same time) - cross-sectional analysis.

It is interesting to use averages and indices when taking into account characteristics and comparing processes occurring in a population when the conditions for comparing data are not equal. Using different weighting when calculating generalized average values, a standardization method has been developed that makes it possible to eliminate the influence of different age characteristics of the population.

Probability theory as a mathematical science studies the properties of the objective world using abstractions , the essence of which is to completely abstract from qualitative certainty and highlight their quantitative side. Abstraction is the process of mental abstraction from many aspects of the properties of objects and at the same time the process of highlighting, isolating any aspects of interest to us, properties and relationships of the objects being studied. The use of abstract mathematical methods in population statistics makes it possible statistical modeling processes occurring in the population. The need for modeling arises when it is impossible to study the object itself. The largest number of models used in population statistics are developed to characterize its dynamics. Among them stand out exponential And logistics. Models are of particular importance in forecasting the population for future periods. stationary And stable population, defining the type of population that has developed under given conditions.

If the construction of exponential and logistic population models uses data on the dynamics of the absolute population size over the past period, then stationary and stable population models are built on the basis of characteristics of the intensity of its development.

So, the statistical methodology for studying population has at its disposal a number of methods from the general theory of statistics, mathematical methods and special methods developed in population statistics itself. Population statistics, using the methods discussed above, develops a system of generalizing indicators, indicates the necessary information, methods of their calculation, the cognitive capabilities of these indicators, conditions of use, recording order and meaningful interpretation.

2.2 Population figures

Population– a set of persons living in a certain territory.

The population is divided into:

1) permanent (PN): persons permanently residing in a given territory, regardless of their location at the time of the census;

2) cash (NC): persons who are actually in the given territory at the time of the census, regardless of their place of permanent residence.

In addition, temporarily residing (RT) and temporarily absent (TA) are taken into account. Data on the current population is used to organize the work of transport, trade, water supply, etc. PN data is used in planning housing construction, schools, hospitals, etc. There is a dependence between the listed indicators.

PN = NN – VP + VO - NN = PN + VP – VO

Population calculation finally each year following the census:

S t+1 =S t +N t -M t +P t -B t , where:

S t+1 and S t – population in the corresponding years;

N t – number of births in year t;

M t – number of deaths in year t;

P t – number of arrivals;

B t – number of dropouts.

The absolute population indicator S is a momentary indicator (as of a certain date), i.e. January 1, June 1, etc.

Overall population change:

DS= S t+1 - S t .

To carry out economic calculations you need to know average population for a certain time.

· If there is data for the beginning and end of the period, then the calculation using the simple arithmetic average method:

· If there is data on the population for several equal dates, then calculation using the average chronological unweighted method for moment series:

· If the intervals between dates are unequal, then the calculation using the weighted arithmetic mean method:

To characterize population changes over time, the following are used:

1. population growth rate:

2. population growth rate:

Having determined the population size, the SES studies its composition using the grouping method, which is carried out according to:

* social composition,

* spheres of activity and sectors of the economy,

* professions,

* age,

* marital status, etc.

Changes in numbers due to births and deaths are called natural population movements. It is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.

Absolute indicators:

1. number of births – N;

2. number of deaths - M;

3. natural increase – N-M=DS natural. ;

4. number of marriages and divorces.

These indicators are interval, i.e. are determined for the period.

To judge the frequency of certain demographic events, relative indicators. They are expressed in ppm (0 / 00) and characterize the population level per 1000 people.

1. Total fertility rate. - number of births per year .

2. Overall mortality rate. - number of deaths per year per 1000 people of average annual population .

3. Natural increase rate. or K eats. natural =K p -K cm.

4. Population vitality coefficient (Pokrovsky coefficient) K f(Pokr) =(N/M)*1000=K p /K cm.

The peculiarity of the general coefficients is that they are calculated per 1000 people of the entire population. In addition to the general ones, private coefficients are also used, cat. calculated per 1000 people. a certain age, gender, professional or other group.

5. Age-specific mortality rate.

, Where:

X – age, profession, etc.

M x – number of deaths at age x.

S x – average population size at age x.

6. Child mortality rate under 1 year of age.

, Where:

M 0 – number of children who died under the age of 1 year.

N t – number of births in a given year.

N t-1 – number of births in the previous year.

Special coefficients are also calculated. The most widespread is the special fertility rate (fertility rate):

, Where:

S f.15-49 – the average number of women of fertile age from 15 to 49 years.

There is a connection between the general and special fertility rates:

, Where:

d f.15-49 – share of women aged 15-49 years.

.

There is a relationship between general and special coefficients - any general coefficient can be represented as the arithmetic mean of partial coefficients, weighted by the number of population groups or their share in the total population.

, Where:

d x – share of group x in R.

Thus, the overall coefficient depends on the private and population structure.

There are also standardized coefficients, cat. When making comparisons, the influence of age structure is eliminated. Calculated using the weighted arithmetic average formula:

In this case, the options are partial coefficients, and the weights are indicators of the age structure, taken as the standard for comparison.

Mechanical change is a change in population due to the territorial movement of people, i.e. due to migrations, which are:

* external;

* internal;

* seasonal;

* pendulum.

Absolute indicator of population movement – ​​V.

Number of arrivals – P.

Absolute mechanical gain – P mech. =P-V.

The intensity of mechanical movement is characterized by the following relative indicators :

7. arrival rate – ;

8. retirement rate – ;

9. mechanical gain coefficient – ;

To characterize changes in numbers due to natural population movement and migration, the total growth rate is calculated:

1) ;

2) ;

3) K o.p. =K natural +To mechanical nature

Mortality tables and calculation of prospective population size

The mortality table is a system of indicators related to each other, depending on the mortality rate, assigned to different ages.

Table 1

X varies from 0 to 100 years (one-year groups).

l x is set per 10,000 people.

d x – number of deaths under x+1 years of age

q x= d x / l x – probability of death within a year

p x= l x +1 / l x – probability of surviving to the next day. age ( p x + q x = 1)

L x is the average value of those surviving from age x to x+1.

L x = (l x + l x +1)/2. (Except for 0th age).

T x – total number of person-years, cat. the totality of persons to live from age x years to the age limit

– average life expectancy.

– movement coefficient, calculated based on the table.

1. method of moving ages. S x +1 = S x * P x .

2.a method of arithmetic progression. , Where:

S t + l – population size in l years.

S t– population size at the reference date.

D is the average annual absolute population growth.

2.b geometric progression method.

3. analysis of population dynamics over a number of years, determination of trends in changes, extrapolation of time series. y(t)=ab t – exponential function. Having determined the parameters a and b from the actual data, by substituting t (years), we obtain the possible values ​​of the population in any t period.

Parameter a is the initial population size in the period where t=0.

Parameter b – the coefficient of total growth, shows how many times the average population increases annually.

2.3 Calculation and analysis of indicators of population dynamics in Russia for 2000-2005

Initial data on the population of Russia are given in Table 2:

table 2

In Table 3 we will calculate the indicators of the dynamics series.

Table 3

	Number of people, people (yi)	Absolute growth, thousand people		Rates of growth, %		Growth rate, %		Absolute values ​​of growth (Ai), %
		Chain (Δts)	Basic (Δb)	Chain (TrC)	Basic (TrB)	Chain (TprTs)	Basic (TPB)

Absolute increases:

Chain: Δts = yi – yi-1

For 2001: 146303.6-146890.1=- 586.5

For 2002: 145649.3-146303.6=- 654.3

For 2003: 144963.6-145649.3=- 685.7

For 2004: 144168.2 -144963.6=- 795.4

For 2005: 143474.2-144168.2=- 694;

Basic: Δb = yi – y1

For 2001: 146303.6 -146890.1=- 586.5

For 2002: 145649.3-146890.1=- 1240.8

For 2003: 144963.6-146890.1=- 1926.5

For 2004: 144168.2-146890.1=- 2721.9

For 2005: 143474.2-146890.1=- 3415.9

Rates of growth:

Chain: TrTs =

2002: (145649.3 /146303.6)*100%=99.55277%

2003: (144963.6/145649.3)*100%=99.52921%

2004: (144168.2 /144963.6)*100%=99.45131%

2005: (143474.2 /144168.2)*100%=99.51861%

Basic: TrB =

2001: (146303.6 /146890.1)*100%=99.60072%

2002: (145649.3 /146890.1)*100%=99.15528%

2003: (144963.6/146890.1)*100%=98.68847%

2004: (144168.2 /146890.1)*100%=98.14698%

2005: (143474.2 /146890.1)*100%=97.67451%

Growth rate:

Chain: TprTs – 100

2001: 99.60072 –100=-0.3993

2002: 99.55277– 100=-0.4472

2003: 99.52921– 100=-0.4708

2004: 99.45131 – 100=-0.5487

2005: 99.51861– 100=.-0.4814

Basic: TprB – 100

2001: 99.60072 – 100=-0.3993

2002: 99.15528– 100=-0.8447

2003: 98.68847 – 100=-1.3115

2004: 98.14698 – 100=-1.853

2005: 97.67451- 100=-2.3255.

Absolute growth values:

2001: 146890.1 / 100 = 1468.9

2002: 146303.6 / 100 = 1463.04

2003: 145649.3 / 100 = 1456.49

2004: 144963.6 / 100 =1449.64

2005: 144168.2/ 100 = 1441.68

Average absolute increase: = = - 683,2

Average growth rate: = = =0.9955.

7) Average growth rate: = 0.9955*100%-100 = -0.45.

One of the main tasks of studying time series is to identify patterns (trends) in the development of a particular process or phenomenon. Based on the data obtained from the analysis of a number of dynamics, the population of Russia continues to fall. The values ​​of chain and basic indicators show us the characteristics of changes in the levels of the dynamic series. In particular, one can note a sharp decrease in the value of chain absolute growth in 2004, taking into account the constant negative growth throughout all 5 years. Indicators of chain growth rates show that the current population in the period from 2000-2005. was on the decline.

2.4 Population forecast for 2007-2009

Based on the data in Table 2, we will construct graphs:

Among the plots constructed, the lowest value of the approximation error is observed in the power-law model.

Let's consider a linear model to make a population forecast for 2006-2007. To do this, let's take a linear equation: y = -690.61*x + 149040. Let's denote the years:

Table 4

Now, instead of X, we substitute values ​​into the linear equation to obtain a forecast for the desired period, as well as aligned y values. We will calculate the average approximation error using the linear graph data, comparing them with data on the population of Russia from the 2008 Demographic Directory, using the formula:

, i.e.

Table 5

				(| y - y" |) / y	(| y - y" |)*100 / y

Substituting instead of “y” the values ​​from the Demographic Directory, instead of “yx” - the aligned values ​​of “y”, and instead of “n” - the number of years, we obtain an average approximation error equal to ≈ 5.70704 / 6 ≈ 0.9512. This value of the approximation error exceeds 12-15%, which indicates that the data are not adequate to the real ones, but the downward trend is accurately traced.

Thus, it is clear that Russia's population will continue to decline in 2007-2009. According to the 2008 Demographic Directory, in 2007 it was 142,221.0 thousand people, in 2008 – 142,008.8 thousand people. According to the forecast received, in 2009 it will be 142,133.9 thousand people.

3. Purpose of demographic forecasting

The history of demographic forecasts goes back hundreds of years. Many scientists - representatives of different sciences - tried to find some “objective laws of population growth”: biological, mathematical, economic, etc.

They tried to derive these “laws” from observations of the patterns of reproduction of animals and insects or by experimenting with mathematical models. All these attempts were unsuccessful. There is no automaticity in population growth (other than its inertia).

It is determined by the laws of people’s social behavior, which, in turn, is governed by the laws of social life.

The demographic forecast is based on knowledge of the theory and general patterns of population development, on taking into account the main trends in population reproduction in the near historical perspective: further development of urbanization, growth in the educational and cultural level of the population, a decrease in mortality and an increase in life expectancy, the gradual withering away of the traditions of large families, changes in family functions, increasing social and territorial mobility of the population, maintaining a certain differentiation in the demographic development of different regions, determined by economic, socio-cultural and ethnic factors, etc.

The accuracy of modern demographic forecasting is determined by the level of development of theoretical and applied demography, the general level of scientific forecasting of all aspects of the socio-economic life of society, as well as new analytical and forecasting capabilities provided by computer methods. Since the early 1990s, standard application software packages have been widely used in demographic forecasting. They significantly save the time required to carry out forecast calculations, make it possible to calculate various scenarios of possible population dynamics, and also make calculations with incomplete or defective data.

The reliability of a demographic forecast depends on:

I) accuracy of the source information,

2) on the validity of hypotheses about changes in demographic processes under the influence of the entire complex of socio-economic conditions,

3) on the duration of the period for which the forecast is made. There are short-term (up to 5 years), medium-term (up to 30 years) and long-term (30-60 years) forecasts.

A demographic forecast helps to determine both the quantity and structure (age and gender) of future labor resources, and to assess the possible needs of various socio-demographic groups of the population for various goods and services. It is necessary for a long-term assessment of the development and placement of social facilities, and is widely used in marketing.

The development of government social security measures is based on demographic forecasting data. In the context of the continuing increase in the number and proportion of the elderly population, forecasting the number of pensioners, their marital status, and health becomes of great importance. There is an increasing need to predict indicators characterizing the family structure of the population.

A forecast of the number and composition of families, as well as their income and needs, is necessary to assess the prospects for housing construction.

The role of demographic forecasting in developing a strategy for the development of society is constantly increasing, which is due to the increasingly social orientation of the economy. In turn, forecasts and programs for the development of industrial and agricultural production of social infrastructure, territorial redistribution of the population, income dynamics, living standards and employment of the population are taken into account when choosing hypotheses of demographic development and choosing the option for long-term population calculation.

Demographic forecasts made under the auspices of the UN are used to develop an international development strategy, recommendations in the field of population policy, and to solve global and regional economic, political, and environmental problems. UN estimates and projections are revised every two years to take into account new data on population movements provided by national statistical offices.

Currently, there are many forecasts for the demographic development of Russia. They are of an author's nature and differ from each other in the formulation of tasks, hypotheses, results and underlying methodological guidelines. Knowledge of the intent of the forecast and the methodological approach used by a particular author can help in developing an individual assessment of the user in terms of confidence in the forecast results and the possibilities of their use in management practice.

Professor I.V., who studied this issue. Bestuzhev-Lada writes the following. In the forms of concretization of the abstract concept of “foresight”, it is advisable to distinguish between two concrete concepts: “prediction” and “forecasting”. Both contain a third specific concept - “prediction” (of the state of a phenomenon or process in the future). But in the first case, the prediction is unconditional; it is characterized by the verbs “will” or “will become”. And in the second it is purely conditional, instrumental: “it may be or may become under certain conditions,” on which the researcher’s attention is focused.

The assessment of the first type of forecasts is made “according to the degree of justification,” which, in turn, is located on a scale: came true - did not come true. Let us note that the managerial significance of forecasting - predicting (what will happen tomorrow) is minimal, since it leaves the decision-making process within the framework of a subjective attitude towards the future. This kind of forecast can be used as a warning forecast (for example, with narrowed population reproduction in France, 50s of the 20th century), to justify territorial expansion and geopolitics (Germany, 30s, 20th century), to promote family planning programs (developing countries, 60-80s, 20th century).

An alternative approach to the future is expanded into the concept of “technological forecasting”: not “what will happen”, but “what can happen given the observed trends and what needs to be done to make the most desirable possible happen.” In essence, such an approach should be called problem-targeted, because in practice, extrapolation into the future of observed trends always shows a picture of emerging problems, and optimization of these trends always comes down to identifying the most effective solution to them. A technological forecast, as an advance “weighing” of the consequences of a planned decision, provides unspeakably more for increasing management efficiency (for example, it greatly increases the objectivity of the planned decisions) than the best guesses. In fact, it is a means of analyzing patterns of population dynamics under the influence of certain changes in fertility and mortality.

The experience of foreign countries clearly shows that depopulation can be overcome. According to preliminary estimates, the loss may decrease by several ppm in the foreseeable future. Demographic processes are inherently very inert, and it is impossible to turn the depopulation flywheel overnight.

There are (in the West) standard mortality tables by cause of death. Other approaches are probably possible. It is important to remember that the accuracy of the forecast is determined almost exclusively by the quality of the hypothesis about trends in demographic development, and not by the complexity of mathematical formulas.

Bibliography

1. Federal Law of February 19, 1993 “On Refugees”.

2. Federal Law of February 19, 1993 “On Forced Migrants”;

3. Borisov V.A. Demography, M., 1999;

4. Demographic Yearbook of Russia, 2002;

5. Demographic Yearbook of Russia, 2003;

6. Erokhina O.V.: “Migration: free and forced, socio-economic aspects, the specifics of the migration problem for Russia, the main features of modern labor migration and “brain drain.” //Internet conference on the portal http://www.auditorium.ru;

7. Kildishev et al. Population statistics with basic demography, M.: “Finance and Statistics”, 1990;

8. Kuzmin A.I. Course of lectures "Fundamentals of Demography". Lecture 12 “Population Migration” // http://humanities.edu.ru;

9. Methodological provisions on statistics//Goskomstat of Russia. – M.: Issue 4. – 2003

10. “Population of Russia”//Annual demographic report. M., 1999

11. Salin V.N., Churilova E.Yu. Course on the theory of statistics, Moscow: Finance and Statistics, 2006.

12. Tatarkova N.V. Course of lectures “Economic demography”;

13. Federal State Statistics Service “Number and migration of the population of the Russian Federation in 2002.”

14. http://antropotok.archipelag.ru – Center for Strategic Research of the Volga Federal District. Group "Russian Archipelago";

15. http://demoscope.ru – Magazine “Demoscope-Weekly”, electronic version;

16. http://www.gks.ru;

17. http://www.perepis2002.ru – All-Russian Population Census 2002;

18. http://www.capital.ru

Application

Figure 1. Factors influencing the decision to migrate

Figure 2. Components of population growth (decrease) in Russia, thousand people

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Rice. 3. Components of changes in the population of Russia by month 1998-2003, thousand people

List of regions of the Russian Federation
Central Federal District
1. Belgorod region	2. Bryansk region
3. Vladimir region	4. Voronezh region
5. Ivanovo region	6. Kaluga region
7. Kostroma region	8. Kursk region
9. Lipetsk region	10. Moscow region
11. Oryol region	12. Ryazan region
13. Smolensk region	14. Tambov region
15. Tver region	16. Tula region
17. Yaroslavl region	18. Moscow
Northwestern Federal District
19. Republic of Karelia	20. Komi Republic
21. Arkhangelsk region	22. Nenets auto. district
23. Vologda region	24. Kaliningrad region
25. Leningrad region	26. Murmansk region
27. Novgorod region	28. Pskov region
29. St. Petersburg
Southern Federal District
	30. Republic of Adygea
31. Republic of Dagestan	32. Republic of Ingushetia
33. Kabardino-Balkarian Republic	34. Republic of Kalmykia
35. Karachay-Cherkess Republic	36. Republic of North Ossetia-Alania
37. Chechen Republic*	38. Krasnodar region
39. Stavropol region	40. Astrakhan region
41. Volgograd region	42. Rostov region
Volga Federal District
43. Republic of Bashkortostan	44. Republic of Mari El
45. Republic of Mordovia	46. ​​Republic of Tatarstan
47. Udmurt Republic	48. Chuvash Republic
49. Kirov region	50. Nizhny Novgorod region
51. Orenburg region	52. Penza region
53. Perm region	54. Komi-Permyak auto. district
55. Samara region	56. Saratov region
57. Ulyanovsk region
Ural federal district
	58. Kurgan region
59. Sverdlovsk region	60. Tyumen region
61. Khanty-Mansiysk avt. district	62. Yamalo-Nenets auto. district
63. Chelyabinsk region
Siberian Federal District
	64. Altai Republic
65. Republic of Buryatia	66. Republic of Tyva
67. Republic of Khakassia	68. Altai region
69. Krasnoyarsk region	70. Taimyr (Dolgano-Nenets) auto. district
71. Evenki auto. district	72. Irkutsk region
73. Ust-Ordynsky Buryat auto. district	74. Kemerovo region
75. Novosibirsk region	76. Omsk region
77. Tomsk region	78. Chita region
79. Aginsky Buryat auto. district
Far Eastern Federal District
	80. Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
81. Primorsky Krai	82. Khabarovsk region
83. Amur region	84. Kamchatka region
85. Koryak auto. district	86. Magadan region
87. Sakhalin region	88. Jewish auto. region
89. Chukotka auto. district

*Data for the Chechen Republic, as a rule, are not available, or were determined by expert assessment

Rice. 4. Components of changes in the population of the regions-subjects of the Russian Federation for 2003 (based on the results for January-November in annual terms), per 1000 people of the population

Rice. 5. Migration growth of the population of Russia, 1980-2003, thousand people and per 10 thousand people of the population

Rice. 6. Main flows of external migration in Russia by month, 1998-2003

Rice. 7. Number of migrants moving within Russia, 1979-2003, thousand people registered upon arrival

Rice. 8. Number of migrants moving within Russia, by month, 1998-2003

Rice. 9. Dynamics of the number of Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Georgians, Tajiks and Kazakhs according to the censuses of 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989 and 2002 (1989 = 100%)

Rice. 10. Dynamics of the number of individual peoples of the North Caucasus according to the censuses of 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989 and 2002 (1989 = 100%)

Rice. 11. Dynamics of the number of individual peoples of the Volga region according to the censuses of 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989 and 2002 (1989 = 100%)

Rice. 12. Population

Rice. 13. Urban and rural population.

Rice. 14. National composition.

Rice. 15. Women per 1000 Men

Rice. 16. Marital status of the population.

Rice. 17. Main migration flows.

Table 1.

Table 2. Indicators of natural population growth.

Table 3. Number of internally displaced persons and refugees (people).

Appendix, p. 37, fig. 2

Appendix, page 48, table 2.

Appendix, p. 38, fig. 3

Appendix, page 38

Appendix, page 40, fig. 4

Appendix, p.41, fig. 6

Appendix, page 41, fig. 7

Appendix, page 42, fig. 8

The distribution of the population across the country is characterized by the following indicators:

1) Absolute indicators of the population living in a particular territory;

2) Relative: specific weights (shares) of the population living in a particular territory in the total number of us in the country, population density, which characterizes the density of our residence in the country and is calculated as the ratio of the population to the size of the area of ​​the given territory.

Statistics study population dynamics using absolute and relative analytical and average dynamics indicators: absolute growth, coefficients and rates of growth and increase, calculated both for the entire period under study and on average for the year (see OTS).

Indicators of natural increase (decrease) of the mechanical population.

Changes in population dynamics occur due to natural factors (fertility and mortality) and population movement across the territory (mechanical movement or migration). Statistics determine absolute and relative indicators of natural movement, mechanical movement and general population growth (decrease).

Absolute indicators of natural population movement are: the number of births (P), deaths (U), natural increase (decrease) of the population, equal to the difference between P and U:

EP = P – U

Mechanical movement or migration is the movement of a population from one territory to another. Migration is distinguished: internal, external, pendulum. Internal movement - within the territory of a given country, external - from one territory to another, pendulum - movement near large cities every day to work or study or back.

Absolute indicators of the mechanical movement of the population are: the number of arrivals to a given territory (PR), those leaving (YB), mechanical growth (departure) of the population, equal to the difference between PR and SEL.

MP = PR – SEL

The absolute indicator of overall population growth (decrease) is the amount of change in population due to natural and mechanical quantities (PV). MB is calculated in two ways:

1) The difference between the number of us at the end and at the beginning of the period:

OP = N 1 – N 0;

2) The sum of natural and mechanical:

OP = EP + MP

Characterizes the relationship between OP, EP, MP.

Absolute indicators provide an insufficiently complete picture of population changes, so statistics also determine the relative indicators of the natural and mechanical movement of us.

According to natural factors, the following coefficients are calculated: birth rate, mortality rate, natural increase (decrease), vitality.

The birth rate shows the average number of births per 1,000 people during the period, calculated in per mille as the ratio of the number of births during a given period to the average population:

K p = P/-N * 1000

The mortality rate shows the average number of deaths per 1000 people, calculated in ppm as the ratio of the number of deaths to the average number of us:

K cm = U/-H * 1000

The coefficient of natural increase (decrease) characterizes growth due to natural causes and is calculated in 2 ways: as the ratio of natural increase (decrease) (R - Y) to the average number of us.

Kep = P – U/-H *1000

Kep = Kr – Kcm

The vitality coefficient is the ratio between fertility and mortality, calculated in 2 ways:

Kf = Kr / Ky

Characterizes the nature of population reproduction due to natural factors. If<1 или 100%, то числ-ть нас сокращается; =1 или 100% - воспроизводство простое, т е численность не изменяется; >1 or 100% - expanded reproduction, numbers increase.

The considered indicators of natural population movements in the MB are calculated as general - for the population as a whole, and as specific or special - for population groups that differ by gender, age, level of education, marital status, place of residence, and regions. In practice, age-specific birth and death rates, special birth rates, and infant mortality rates are used.

Age kr characterize the number of births on average per 1000 women in accordance with age.

Age kcm – the average number of deaths per 1000 people in the corresponding age group.

Special kr (fertility rate) shows the average number of births per 1000 women aged 15 to 49 years who are capable of childbearing. It is calculated in per mille as the ratio of the number of births to all women to the average number of women aged 15 to 49 years.

There is the following relationship between the general and special fertility rates:

Okr = Special * Share of the number of women at the same age in the total number of us

Special kr = Okr/proportion of numbers

The infant mortality rate shows the number of children who died under the age of 1 year per 1000 births. MB is calculated depending on the initial data using the following formulas: as the ratio of the total number of children under 1 year of age who died in a given year, regardless of whether they were born this year or last year, to the number of births; as the sum of 2 indicators of infant mortality, one of which is equal to the ratio of the number of deaths under the age of 1 year in a given year from among those born in the same year, and the other - the ratio of the number of children who died in a given year under the age of 1 year from the generation born last year (more accurate).

Relative indicators of mechanical movement of the population: arrival, departure, mechanical increase (decrease), also calculated in ppm as the ratio corresponding to the absolute indicator of mechanical movement - the number of arrivals or departures or mechanical increase (decrease) to the average population size.

A relative indicator of overall population growth is the coefficient of overall population growth (decrease), which characterizes the increase (decrease) per 1000 people of the population due to its mechanical and natural movement. MB is calculated in 2 ways: as the ratio of total population growth in absolute terms to the average population; as the sum of the coefficients of natural and mechanical population growth. The calculation using the second formula clearly shows the relationship between relative indicators - the coefficients of general, natural and mechanical population growth.

General mortality rates are values ​​of variable composition, since each of them depends on 2 factors: the mortality rate of the population at certain ages and the age structure of the population. For example, for 2 regions they will be calculated as follows:

K 1total = ∑K 1 d 1 /∑d 1

K 2total = ∑K 2 d 2 /∑d 2

d – the number of people in any age group or their share in the total number of people of the corresponding age in the 1st and 2nd regions.

To eliminate the influence of differences in the age structure of the population on the average mortality rate of the population, standardized mortality rates are constructed as indicators of constant composition - based on the same standard age structure of the population.

K 1general standard = ∑K 1 d st /∑d st

K 2general standard = ∑K 2 d st /∑d st

The absolute value of the influence of differences in the age structure of the population on general mortality rates is determined as the difference between the corresponding general and standardized mortality rates.

Standardized fertility rates eliminate the impact on fertility of differences in the age structure of the population and are constructed in the same way as indicators of constant composition with the same standard age structure of the population.